Gunner Kiel Could Be a Dark Horse Heisman Contender in 2015

We haven’t even closed the doors on the 2014 season, and yet some of us are already trying to project into next year. Heck, Saturdays Down South came out with a way-too-early preseason Top-25 for 2015 last week. In a copycat industry, I guess its only appropriate that I go ahead and tell you why Cincinnati quarterback Gunner Kiel could be a dark horse Heisman contender next season.

To explain why Kiel is my way-too-early dark horse Heisman contender in 2015 from the American Athletic Conference instead of standout Tulsa wide receiver Keevan Lucas, South Florida running back and 2014 AAC leading rusher Marlon Mack, or any other breakout player from 2014, I first need to lay down some principal facts about the Heisman Trophy for perspective.

• Thirteen of the 17 Heisman winners in the BCS/Playoff era (1998 – 2014) were quarterbacks

• Seven players from current non-Power Five conferences (including BYU) placed in the Top-5 on Heisman ballets from 1999-2013

• Six of those seven Top-5 Heisman finishers were quarterbacks

• Each of the six quarterbacks scored over 32 touchdowns

• Ty Detmer (BYU), the last Heisman winner from a non-Power Five conference (Western Athletic Conference), passed for 5,188 yards, 41 touchdowns, 9.2 yards per attempt, and had a 64.2 completion percentage during his 1990 Heisman campaign.

• BYU knocked off then-No. 1 ranked Miami on the road to give Detmer a signature non-conference victory that placed him in good standing with voters, despite playing in a weaker conference

Since 2014 is the only measuring stick we have at the moment to evaluate Kiel’s 2015 Heisman potential, let’s examine his key stats from the regular season.

• 3,010 passing yards (third in the AAC)

• 60.2 completion percentage (fourth)

• 250.8 passing yards per game (third)

• 8.3 yards per attempt (first)

• 150.79 Passer Efficiency Rating (first)

• 3o TD passes (ninth in NCAA)

Kiel’s stats weren’t Heisman worthy for a quarterback in 2014 by any stretch of the imagination, but they were prominent enough to illustrate the top talent the 6-foot-4, former five-star recruit brings to the table.

Kiel might have out-passed Shane Carden, the conference’s top passer, if he had had more attempts; Carden had almost 200 more pass attempts than Kiel. Throw in the fact that Kiel left a game at Tulane because of injury after only one pass attempt, and his numbers might have approached this year’s Heisman winner Marcus Mariota (38 touchdowns, 3,783 passing yards, and 10.2 yards per attempt), albeit a much higher number in the turnover column.

“The Games You Remember Are Played In November.” To win the Heisman Trophy, you must play at your best during the most critical month in the season, where conference titles are on the line and national exposure is at its peak.

Kiel’s close-to-Heisman moment came against East Carolina in a nationally televised shootout between two of the country’s top signal callers. The Bearcats scraped away with a 54-46 win, in large part because Kiel had passed for a season-high 436 yards, gained nearly 10 yards per attempt,  completed 65.9 percent of his passes, and tossed four touchdowns.

The one black eye: three interceptions.

For Kiel to have a legitimate Heisman campaign in 2015, he must cut down on his 11 interceptions. Heisman voters in the BCS/Playoff era have proven to be fickle with quarterbacks from pass-happy offenses. Kiel won’t receive any serious contention for the nations top honor if he tosses a handful of interceptions. Mariota only threw two interceptions the entire 2014 season, and his ability to keep the ball in his possession and manage the offense was one of the key reasons why he took home the Heisman last Saturday night.

The full 2015 AAC schedule for each team won’t be released till early 2015, however, we know Cincinnati has two non-conference games against BYU and Miami (Fla.) that could give Kiel and opportunity to showcase his talent and Heisman worthiness to a national audience.

Returning Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch is the AAC’s next best shot as a Heisman contender in 2015, but I feel Kiel’s more impressive 2014 numbers and Cincy’s games against BYU and Miami give him the slight advantage.

With this post, Gunner Kiel’s 2015 dark horse Heisman campaign has begun.