There is no better way to put a bow on the year and kick-off a new one than college football’s bowl season, and let’s face it, the holidays just wouldn’t be as special without oodles and oodles of football to watch. So kick back, grab your festive beverage of choice and a whopping plate of whatever food someone else has hopefully prepared for you and lose yourself in the final 39 games the 2014 college football season provides us.
Of course, more games to watch also means more games to bet on, so naturally, I will give you the “how-to” on beating the spread for the bowl games that an AAC team is playing in. For those of you counting at home, that would be five games, as Memphis, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston and ECU were all bowl eligible and selected for postseason play. Three of the opponents in these games come from the ACC (NC State, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh), Memphis will be BYU’s third game against an AAC squad, and ECU squares off against an SEC powerhouse that’s a bit down on its luck of late–the Florida Gators.
For those who may have read this column throughout the season (thanks Mom and Dad!), I finished the regular season with a 36-29-2 record against the spread. Seven over .500 in a conference riddled with unpredictability and disparity between teams? I will definitely take it.
Remember that some of these games won’t happen for a couple weeks, so these betting lines are current up to now but may change as money continues to come in. So, if you like a line, get your bet in now before it changes. And, with that said, let’s get to the picks!
Monday, December 22, 2014
Miami Beach Bowl (Preview): BYU vs Memphis (-1), 2 p.m. ET
As of now, BYU (8-4) is getting a point but it should be noted that the Cougars were originally favored by a point and a half in this match-up. Basically, these two teams are seen as equals in the eyes of Vegas.
Memphis (9-3, 7-1 AAC) really came out of nowhere, and by nowhere I mean the cellar of the AAC, to become a co-champion of the conference this season, and two things were key to that: the growth of Paxton Lynch at quarterback and playing some nasty defense. The Tigers only allowed 17.1 points per game in the regular season, which placed them fifth nationally in scoring defense. Memphis also comes into this bowl game riding a six-game win streak, but I will say the Tigers have a little “buyer’s beware” about them. Of their nine wins this year, only one of them came against a team with a winning record in Cincinnati, and the Bearcats were coming off a game against Ohio State, had Miami (Fl.) to look forward to, and Gunner Kiel was injured during the game. I don’t mean to put a damper on a great season for the Tigers, but they did beat up on some truly terrible teams this season.
The Cougars had early thoughts of crashing the college football playoff when they were riding Taysom Hill to a 4-0 start and talk of the Heisman was swirling, but that all ended when he had his season-ending broken leg and BYU then lost four straight games. But, Bronco Mendenhall proved his worth as a coach and rallied his troops around quarterback Christian Stewart to win their final four games. BYU is a well-balanced team, as they ranked in the top 50 in passing, rushing and scoring offense, and sported a defense that held opponents to 25.3 ppg. They come into this game having won four straight, including a 42 to 35 road victory over California to end the season.
I picked Memphis to win this game straight-up, and while writing this I almost talked myself into thinking I should have taken BYU–that’s how even this match-up feels. Since the spread is only one point, it’s not really significant enough for me to justify taking the team getting the points, so I guess I will stick with Memphis both straight-up and ATS. But like I said, my confidence isn’t too high here.
Friday, December 26, 2014
St. Petersburg Bowl: NC State vs UCF (-2), 8 p.m. ET
A win for UCF (9-3, 7-1 AAC) in a bowl essentially played in its backyard would give the Knights ten or more wins in four of the last five seasons, an impressive feat given they just lost Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson (essentially their entire offense) to the NFL last season. NC State (7-5, 3-5 ACC) on the other hand is a fairly young team that went from winning exactly zero ACC games in 2013 to at one point having a 24 to 7 lead over Florida State in 2014. I know they ended up losing to the Seminoles, 56 to 41, but come on, it’s progress.
Both of these teams are very “blah” on paper offensively, ranking right in the middle of the FBS, but where UCF makes its mark is on defense. The Knights rank third in the country in total defense by giving up just 282.8 ypg, and ninth in scoring defense by holding their opponents to a measly 17.9 ppg. Both of those stats are incredible given the offensive-dominated era of football we are currently in. Senior linebacker Terrance Plummer is the man to watch for UCF, as he racked up 92 tackles and four sacks this season.
The Wolfpack offense is not incredibly hard to figure out: they want to run the ball, and they actually do it pretty well. NC State averaged 206 rushing ypg this season, led by running backs Shadrach Thornton and Matt Dayes. Thornton amassed 811 yards and nine touchdowns on 147 carries, while Dayes added 495 yards and six touchdowns on 91 attempts. The Knights defense will also have to be wary of Wolfpack quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s ability to run, as he contributed 498 yards and three touchdowns on the ground on 110 carries this year.
In this game, I have to go with what I trust most, and that is UCF’s defense. Honestly, I’m surprised the Knights aren’t favored by more than just two points, so I actually view them as a bargain favorite here. Eat the points, and roll with UCF to win in the Sunshine State.
Saturday, December 27, 2014
Military Bowl (Preview): Cincinnati (-3) vs Virginia Tech, 1 p.m. ET
I think this betting line says more about the Hokies than it does about the Bearcats, as Virginia Tech (6-6, 3-5 ACC) is getting three points in a game that is about as close to home for them outside of actually playing in Blacksburg. Analysis: VT is the quintessential 6-6 team in 2014.
Don’t get me wrong, Cincinnati (9-3, 7-1 AAC) has honestly had about as good a season (outside of a home loss to Memphis) as it could have given the unknown quantity Gunner Kiel was at quarterback coming into the year. Nobody really expected the Bearcats to beat Ohio State, some thought they could contend with Miami (Fl.), and nearly everyone expected them to win the AAC. So, here they are, favored to win in another bowl game against another mediocre “Power 5” team with another chance to win and make a positive national impression. And for the Bearcats, it’s all about putting up points (35.4 ppg) on big plays on offense, and bending but not breaking on defense.
I think this will be the third time I have written this, but Virginia Tech somehow managed to make the impossible possible by handing Ohio State its only loss and losing to Wake Forest in double overtime, 6 to 3, in a game that ended regulation tied at zero in the same season. The third time writing it and the third time I don’t believe it. Anyway, unsurprisingly, the Hokies put together yet another top 25 defense as they ranked 17th in both total and scoring defense, allowing 331.7 yards and 20.4 points per game.
Here’s something I’m writing for like the 27th time this season: when given the choice between good offense and good defense, I’ll take the offense in today’s football. So, because I predicted Cincinnati to win 31 to 27 in my Military Bowl preview column (linked above and here), I think the Bearcats will cover the three-point spread. Lay the points here my friends; that Virginia Tech offense cannot be counted on.
Friday, January 2, 2015
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston vs Pittsburgh (-3), Noon ET
The tricky thing about picking bowl games is that much of what happens on the field can be affected by happenings off the field for a school and football program. This game is a prime example, as both school’s will be without their 2014 head coach, although under slightly different scenarios. Houston (7-5, 5-3 AAC) fired Tony Levine and has already hired Ohio State’s offensive coordinator, Tom Herman, to replace him in 2015. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s (6-6, 4-4 ACC) recent coaching carousel continues as Paul Chryst is moving on to coach Wisconsin, and that also resulted in the firing of the Panthers’ athletic director, Steve Pederson. So, lots of extenuating circumstances here for both teams, but nonetheless, the Panthers are a three-point favorite in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Cougars sophomore quarterback Greg Ward Jr. certainly looks to have a bright future in Herman’s offense, but he certainly regressed a bit as the season went on featuring a low point in a loss to Tulane at home in which he chucked four interceptions. Houston doesn’t really do anything special on offense, but a strong defense only allowing 19.5 ppg led by senior linebacker, Efrem Oliphant, should help the Cougars as they attempt to contain the ACC player of the year in Panthers’ running back James Conner.
Speaking of Conner, it’s all about him for the Pitt Panthers, as it should be. The sophomore running back ran for 1,675 yards on 277 carries (6.0 ypc) and 24 touchdowns. The question will be if they can get enough out of sophomore quarterback Chad Voytik and the passing game to keep the running lanes open for Conner against Houston’s defense, which has held its opponents to just 136.3 rushing yards per game this season.
This bowl feels like an old-fashioned, ground-and-pound game waiting to happen, and my guess is that it comes down to the wire with a key turnover or defensive stop deciding the contest. I like Pittsburgh to win straight-up because I think they can control the game with Conner, but I think I like Houston with those three points against the spread because I don’t think the winner of this one does it by more than a field goal. Take the Cougars and the points here.
Saturday, January 3, 2015
Birmingham Bowl (Preview): ECU vs Florida (-7), Noon ET
By all accounts Florida (6-5, 4-4 SEC) should be able to beat ECU (8-4, 5-3 AAC), but man, does this game have that typical “lesser opponent playing a big name school that doesn’t want to be in this game” feel to it, so I wouldn’t put it past the Gators to lay an egg and roll-over in this one. Add to it that quarterback Shane Carden and wide receiver Justin Hardy are both playing their last game for the Pirates and looking to cap their prolific careers with one last winning performance, and I do not feel comfortable with my straight-up pick of Florida one bit.
The featured match-up of this game is ECU’s fifth-ranked offense going up against Florida’s ninth-ranked defense. You know I’ve been touting offense over defense all season long if you’ve been reading my stuff, but with that said, I haven’t had to choose between an offense and an SEC defense. The athletes that Florida puts on the field should be superior at every spot to who ECU runs out, but is talent and ability going to be enough for the Gators against the Pirates offense if it executes its game plan?
ECU will want to play and score fast, preventing any substitutions for Florida’s defense and forcing the Gators to air it out on offense to win. On the flip side, Florida will try and eat up the clock with its run game and keep Carden and company on the sideline. I think this game stays close, and that favors the Gators, but when a good offense is getting seven points, you have to take that bet. Take the Pirates and the points if you want to beat the spread in this one.
And there you have it; those are my picks ATS in the special bowl edition of “Beating the Spread.” I hope everyone gets a chance to sit down and enjoy as many of the bowl games as possible as we all desperately cling to what’s left of the 2014 college football season. And hey, since it’s the holiday season, try and watch with some friends and family because we all know football brings people together and also gives you an excuse to ignore those you need to when they are in the room. Happy holidays to all, and to all, good luck!
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