The Baltimore Orioles have spent money this winter like they’ve never spent before. There aren’t many teams shelling out over $200 million this offseason, but they haven’t really gotten any better, either.
Here’s a list of the major free agent contracts Baltimore has agreed to so far:
Matt Wieters (one year, $15.8 million)
Chris Davis (seven years, $161 million)
Darren O’Day (four years, $31 million)
Hyn Soo Kim (two years, $7 million)
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Are each of these deals crucial toward the Orioles being competitive in 2016? Absolutely. However, 75 percent of these deals merely retained talent they already had from an 81-81 club. The lone newcomer – Kim – is also an unknown in his rookie season after spending his professional career in the Korean Baseball Organization.
And no, I didn’t forget about Mark Trumbo. Adding his bat to an already decent lineup that includes Adam Jones and Manny Machado can’t hurt, but what if he’s forced to play the outfield? As the team is currently built, Kim will likely take on left field, leaving right field in the hands of Nolan Reimold and Ryan Flaherty, according to the depth chart on Baltimore’s official website.
Manager Buck Showalter probably doesn’t want to depend on either of those two and he definitely doesn’t want to put Davis, Trumbo or Jimmy Paredes out there.
That shouldn’t even be the biggest concern after taking one look at the starting rotation, though.
This is a group of pitchers that came in 18th with a 9.3 fWAR (according to FanGraphs) and still hasn’t replaced the production lost from Wei-Yin Chen (2.8 fWAR in 2015) leaving for the Miami Marlins. Acquiring Odrisamer Despaigne (0.0 fWAR in ’15) and hoping Kevin Gausman takes a step forward while crossing their fingers that Dylan Bundy stays healthy enough to make good on his top prospect pedigree simply isn’t enough.
So, it’s good to hear Baltimore is in serious negotiations with free-agent right-hander Yovani Gallardo. He doesn’t have ace potential, but he’s consistently good, which is something the Orioles could really use. Since 2009, he hasn’t started less than 30 games and has thrown at least 180 innings each year, while producing an fWAR no lower than 2.0 during that time.
Is this the kind of production worthy of surrendering the 14th overall pick? Considering ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Baltimore’s farm system 27th out of 30 possible teams, probably not. However, holding onto that one pick isn’t going to immediately turn things around, as Mark Brown of SB Nation’s Camden Chat recently noted.
The organization just poured over $200 million in future commitments into the on-field product, with the majority of it going to a power hitter on the wrong side of 30. The time to win is right now. While it would be helpful to hold onto that top pick, getting another durable starter to help stabilize the rotation should be a higher priority.
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If Baltimore does officially bring Gallardo on board, they might as well go after Dexter Fowler, too. If the 14th pick is expendable, the 29th might as well be too, right?
FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal notes the Orioles have an interest in Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce, but finding prospects from that 27th-ranked farm system that Cincy likes enough to part with him will probably be tough:
#Orioles also like free agent Pedro Alvarez and #Reds’ Bruce in addition to Fowler, per sources. Might not have prospects to land Bruce.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 10, 2016
Alvarez brings a lot of power and no draft-pick compensation, but don’t the O’s have enough players who are not strong fielders? That’s why nabbing Fowler makes the most sense.
He’s only played one inning in right field since his MLB debut in 2008, but he’s young enough (29 years old) and athletic enough that he’ll make the adjustment better than any of Baltimore’s incumbent options. Showalter could also plug him right into the leadoff spot, which is another need for this lineup.
Since it’s so close to Spring Training, they could once again minimize financial risk by signing Fowler to a deal in the two-year, $20 million range, similar to the one Howie Kendrick just got from the Los Angeles Dodgers.
When looking at the rest of the American League East, this is Baltimore’s chance to strike. They’ve already spent nearly a quarter of a billion dollars this winter. Spending another $60-$70 million is not bad. But what about that bad farm system of theirs?
As was mentioned before, it won’t get fixed overnight, and there are ways to start moving in the right direction even without these top two picks. Rosenthal notes that the Orioles would still have four selections in the top 100 to work with, could commit more resources in Latin America and eventually flip closer Zach Britton for some prospects.
They can also get a draft pick back next winter by extending another qualifying offer to Wieters that he’ll probably reject (he’s a Scott Boras client, after all).
Now is not the time for Baltimore to pump the brakes. Bringing in Gallardo and Fowler gives them the best chance of returning to the postseason in 2016. There’s a lot of risk in giving up two top picks in this manner, but it’s a risk worth taking for the Orioles.
Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter so we can get through this last little bit of time without baseball together: @mmusico8.
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