Contract year behavior

An interesting take from Lovin Blue

But when consequences are either delayed or uncertain, then the subject won’t necessarily demonstrate the desired behavior.  When I apply this theory to players in their contract year, I can see some reason to doubt whether a player will always go all out.  First, the reward of a big pay day is definitely not immediate (unless you consider the history of the planet, in which case a year is a very short time indeed).  But realistically, a player has to work and sweat through summer training camp, practices, and 16 hard-fought games… about 5-6 months… to build their final year’s resume.  This is a long time to sustain behavior, but if the reward is certain, not out of the question.

Which brings us to… certainty.  There are many factors that impact the certainty of a big contract – the availability of new players (draftees, trades), the contract status of other players (the Colts will take care of Manning first, then turn their attention to the others), and even the team’s game strategy (see: Lilja, Ryan).  Injuries also come into play – if a player goes 100% every single day, he risks injury, which would likely and negatively impact their next contract.  Imagine the contract Marlin Jackson could have earned – with the Colts – had he not torn his ACL last year.