UPDATE (10:39p) – I was wrong about pretty much everything. If I were you, I’d move along and spare yourself being embarrassed for me.
+++++
Not the best headline. I know.
We’re not here to lie to each other, though. I don’t believe there’s going to be anything ‘bold’ or ‘amazing’ that I can predict. Two really good teams are going to play a baseball game and one of them is going to win and move on to play the Cardinals in the NLDS.
Now if somehting like this happens, I’ll be happy to have been wrong. But chances are slim PNC Park breaks out the angel wings on Gerrit Cole.
Don’t get me wrong. It’s been a loooooong time since I’ve been this excited to watch a baseball game that didn’t involve the Cardinals. Having two of the best teams in baseball that the Birds happen to have played 38 times in 2015 with the winner getting the Cardinals in a playoff series?
Sick.
But what’s going to happen?
Who wins?
Pirates. 4-1.
Jake Arrieta has been as good as a pitcher can get in the second half of the ’15 season. The expectations with Cubs fans are – candidly – INSANE. I’m getting the sense that some people would be disappointed if he threw a no-hitter instead of a perfect game.
#Pirates are a terrific team, Gerrit Cole is a great pitcher. But you'd be out of your mind to bet against Jake Arrieta tonight. #Cubs win.
— Mike Greenberg (@Espngreeny) October 7, 2015
That’s ESPN’s Mike Greenberg. A prominent national sports analyst and personality. And he’s saying that if I were to bet on the Pirates to win (even though the game is in Pittsburgh and the Pirates ace Gerrit Cole is pitching) that I’d be “out of my mind”.
The best team ever (by winning percentage) is the 1906 Chicago Cubs, who went 116-36. They lost roughly 24% of the games they played.
The 2015 Cubs are 97-65, meaning they lost about 40% of their games. Over the entire franchise history the Cubs have lost 8,741 times compared to 8,867 wins. Let’s call that a 50/50 split.
Point is… the Cubs – even with Arrieta – are capable of losing this game.
Why do you think that?
Because right now, somewhere in Pittsburgh, there are a bunch of Pirates that are pissed off.
David. Bring out all the reinforcements. I need it LOUD. https://t.co/vxhbjNVqBm
— Jake Arrieta (@JArrieta34) October 5, 2015
They don’t want to play in the game. They keep hearing about how Arrieta is going to cut their apple bags off. They’re being told that people would be “out of their minds” to consider picking them to win.
I don’t know, I thought the Pirates were pretty good in 2015. You?
Above and beyond the non-tangible, though – there’s reason for hope if you’re the Pirates.
The biggest? The cubs propensity to strike out.
In 2015 the Cubs struck out 1,518 times to lead MLB. They were more than 100 in front of the second place Houston Astros. 251 more than the Cardinals (14th). And in the playoffs, strikeouts are killers. Every AB is critical and positive outcomes need to happen routinely. If a player gets on 2nd with 1 out, you have to be able to move him to third with a fly ball or grounder to the opposite side.
The Cubs? They’re not great at this.
Fair enough, anything else?
Watch for the Pirates to run. And run some more.
Arrieta has allowed 27 stolen bases in 2015, 4th worst in the MLB behind teammate Jon Lester, Tyson Ross and A.J. Burnett. The Pirates haven’t been caught stealing on Arrieta this year. If they can get on base, they’ll take chances to put runners in scoring position.
Also, keep an eye on McCutchen.
The Pirates team leader has a healthy .348 career average against Arrieta with 8 hits (2XBH) and 3 walks. Stars are made in the postseason and McCutchen has the ability to raise his national profile significantly with a big game tonight.
Lastly, expect offense to come in bursts and for it to come late – groundbreaking prediction, right? But with these two good pitchers, the game will probably be won or lost late with either a tired ace getting hit or a bullpen not coming through.
Details?
- Game Time: 7:08 CT
- TV: TBS
- Venue: PNC Park Pittsburgh PA
- Radio: ESPN Radio
Photo: TBS
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