I had the opportunity to record a podcast with Michael Felder of In The Bleachers on Monday to discuss his “Slate of Eight” games this week. One of our major discussion points was the Boise State/Georgia game. If you haven’t had a listen yet then head on over to his site and stream or download it. After you’ve had a listen then come back and let’s talk Boise State/Georgia and break down where the advantages and dis-advantages are for each team. Also, if you haven’t read our Pre-Season Previews for each of these teams then make sure you do as we interviewed The Leather Helmet Blog for their take on Georgia and also talked to the Boise State blog OBNUG.
QUARTERBACK
This is strength versus strength. Kellen Moore has been fantastic during his career at Boise. Last year his completion percent was 71% and he had 35 TD to only 6 INT. Last year, Boise only played two teams from Automatic Qualifier Conferences (Oregon State and Virginia Tech). Against Virginia Tech, Moore was solid but did have his lowest completion percentage of the year (60%) and also had his lowest yards per attempt (5.7). In 2009, Moore only played one game against a team from an Automatic Qualifier Conference but also played TCU in their bowl game. Statistically those were his two worst games as he threw for a total of 1 TD but he didn’t hurt himself or his team as he threw no interceptions. So in the last two years in Boise’s biggest three games (VT, TCU and Oregon) Moore threw for a total of 4 TDs and 0 interceptions. Not bad because he didn’t turn the ball over but in his other 24 games (over the last two seasons) he averaged 3 TD per game. Looking at the stats (which stats don’t always tell the whole story) I would say that Moore will be solid against Georgia and he won’t turn the ball over but he won’t be spectacular.
Aaron Murray is more of a wild-card than Moore. But he’s also not as experienced. As a freshman the only “bad” games he had were against UCF and Florida. And even in the Florida game he made some great plays in the second half. It is clear to me that Aaron Murray has a much higher ceiling than does Kellen Moore. The question is if Murray has taken a big step this off-season. He’s saying all the right things, the coaches are saying all the right things about him. He has developed into a leader this off-season and he’s also become a film room junkie. What you like about Moore here is that he’s not going to lose you the game, but based on his performance against AQ teams in the past he’s going to need a teammate to step up and win the game for him. Murray gives you a better chance to win but I think he also (due to experience and the fact that he’s going to take more risks) is more apt to make a mistake at this point in his career. So do you take the solid game manager or the gun slinger?
Verdict: Even
RUNNING BACK
Georgia’s leading returning rusher is Carlton Thomas and he’s suspended for the game. That being said he probably wasn’t going to be a factor anyway because he’s a smaller third down back that has never found his role in the Georgia offense under Mike Bobo. Georgia will rely on the tandem of RB turned LB turned RB Richard Samuel and true Freshman Isaiah Crowell. Samuel was effective in spots when he was a sophomore but also had some trouble holding onto the football. Crowell has a very high ceiling but is also totally unproven at the college level.
Boise comes at you with Senior Doug Martin. Martin is the 10th leading returning rusher in the FBS as he ran for 1,260 yards and 12 TD last year. He played pretty well against Virginia Tech last year but didn’t get many touches as he ran the ball 12 times for 83 yards. Martin is really the guy that Georgia needs to stop and force Moore to win the game. Martin had some nice plays in the Nevada game when Boise needed it most. He’s not overwhelming but he’s a hard-nosed player who is going to give top flight effort. Again, Georgia has a higher ceiling at this position but unlike at QB, Georgia doesn’t have any recent experience here so the advantage goes to Boise.
Verdict: Advantage Boise State
WIDE RECIEVERS/TIGHT END
Both teams lose two NFL draft picks. The Dawgs are without A.J. Green and Kris Durham and the Broncos are without Titus Young and Austin Pettis. Nobody really stepped out as the lead guy during camp for Boise and they look poised to throw a bunch of guys out there in different situations. I think Boise will have a solid group of receivers but nobody as gifted as Young or Pettis. Georgia has a much higher ceiling here with Orson Charles and Tavarres King. And Georgia has a bunch of other talent with Marlon Brown, Malcolm Mitchell and Rantavious Wooten. I would bet for one or two of those guys to really step up this year to compliment the 1-2 punch of King and Charles. In addition to Charles, Georgia also has three other really solid TEs that form what might be the most talented TE group in the Nation.
Verdict: Advantage Georgia
OFFENSIVE LINE
Georgia will have the two best Offensive Linemen in the game in Ben Jones and Cordy Glenn. That being said, Georgia still has question marks in Justin Anderson (OL converted to NG converted back to OL) and first year starter Chris Burnette. Georgia also has depth issues. Georgia made the switch this year from Stacey Searles to Will Friend and in doing so made the switch from zone blocking to more of a power blocking concept. Boise has a more experienced group than does Georgia but only has three upper classmen that should start. Boise also has a smaller line with their biggest guying weight in at 300 lbs. I’m not sure I like the match-up that either team has in their OL versus their opponent’s DL. I give Boise a slight advantage because of their experience.
Verdict: Slight Advantage Boise State
DEFENSIVE LINE
Georgia looks to have really improved in this area. That being said, the DL was probably the biggest issue for Georgia last year. Georgia gave up more than 200 yards rushing 4 times last year and gave up more than 175 6 times. Georgia made changes in it’s Strength & Conditioning program during the off-season. They also recruited a 350 lb JUCO nose guard and have a rising RS Soph in Kwame Geathers step up and win the position battle at NG. Georgia will flip DeAngelo Tyson out to DE this year and he should be more effective (he played an undersized NG last year in the 3-4 and was not a good fit for the position). Georgia has the tools to make a huge improvement in this area.
Boise returns six of their top eight defensive linemen and are led by Billy Winn, Shea McClellin, Tyrone Crawford and Chase Baker. Between the four of them they had 25.5 sacks. McClellin led the way against VT last year with 2.5 sacks (of the teams 3) although they only resulted in a loss of 9 yards. I think you have to give Boise the advantage here because of how unproven Georgia is on their line and Winn and Baker should match up pretty well against Georgia up the middle as they both weigh in at around 290.
Verdict: Advantage Boise State
LINEBACKERS
Boise State doesn’t lose any signficant players in this group but they just can’t match the overall talent Georgia has at this position with Alec Ogletree, Jarvis Jones, Christian Robinson and Cornelius Washington. Georgia does lose Justin Houston and Akeem Dent. Dent should be aptly replaced by Robinson and Houston was a fantastic sack machine but wasn’t really a true LB last year (as he was a DE in his other seasons at Georgia before the switch to the 3-4). The move of Alec Ogletree from Safety to LB is the X-Factor here. Ogletree has tremendous speed and is a finisher. His match-up against Doug Martin could be the difference in this game.
Verdict: Advantage Georgia
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Boise State losses Jeron Johnson who led the team with 82 tackles (17 more than the next guy). He was truely a difference maker for the Broncos on defense and he will be missed. George Iloka will be the top returner for this group and he’s also the tallest at 6’3″. The rest of the Broncos backfield comes in around 5’10 or 5’11 and could have significant disadvantages against the taller Georgia receivers like Marlon Brown, Aron White and Orson Charles. Georgia returns their entire secondary with the exception of losing Jaker Hamilton to a second ending injury (he was more of a contributor on special teams) and Alec Ogletree moving to LB. Brandon Boykin and Branden Smith should be a pretty good tandem at corner with freshman Damian Swann being the first player off the bench. At Safety, returning starter Bacarri Rambo is suspended for the first game but coaches have been really happy with the work Shawn Williams and Sanders Commings have put in at Safety. Georgia had issues last year in the first year of the 3-4 in understanding where they needed to be on the field but with the second year under a new defense they should make a good leap this year in terms of understanding the system.
Verdict: Advantage Georgia
SPECIAL TEAMS
Georgia has the best kicker/punter combination in college football in Blair Walsh and Drew Butler. Georgia also have Brandon Boykin returning kick-offs (4 career TD) and Branden Smith returning punts (14.3 yards per attempt last year). Boise has to replace Titus Young with a new kick-off returner but they have a pretty solid punt returner in Chris Potter (who had a TD return against lowly Idaho). Boise is replacing a kicker that missed six FGs last year including two chip shots against Nevada. If the game is on the line and I need a FG I’m turning to Georgia and Blair Walsh as he has unlimited range.
Verdict: Advantage Georgia
COACHING/INTANGIBLES
Mark Richt has been great coach at Georgia but has definitely been on the downswing as of late. Georgia’s Miek Bobo has been a pretty decent OC but his playcalling has been inconsistent at times and hasn’t always gotten the best out of it’s talent. The defense is led by second year coaches Todd Grantham and Scott Lakatos. For Boise, Chris Petersen is thought of as one of the top coaches in the game. Last year he lost DC Justin Wilcox to Tennessee (and the team improved statisically) and this year he losses OC Bryan Harsin to Texas. From a coaching stand-point I think you could overall call this a wash if you are taking into account coordinators but I would give a slight nod to Boise because they have shown more of an ability to be successfully creative in the recent past.
This game is basically a glorified home game for Georgia. Georgia plays about an hour up the road in Athens and it’s fans will dominate the Dome this weekend. Boise has been practicing with silent counts and has been pumping in crowd noise during their practices. If Boise goes up early this could negate Georgia’s fan advantage but if Georgia can go up early then it could be really tough for Boise to come from behind without play-makers like Young and Pettis.
Another thing to look at is the trajectory of the programs. Boise is clearly on the upswing and they are experiencing the “Golden Era” of their football program. Georgia on the other hand is in it’s lowest point under Mark Richt. The all-time low was reached in their retched performance against UCF in their last bowl game but since then most of the off-season news has been positive.
When you look at big games Boise has definitely played better in them more recently than Georgia but Georgia has played in more. Over the last two years Boise has played in big games against Oregon, TCU and Virginia Tech and has won all three by an average of seven points per game. Georgia on the other hand plays in five rivalry games per year (four of which are played in stadiums that house around 80,000 or more fans). That being said, Georgia hasn’t fared particularly well in them recently as they went 2-3 against rivals last year.
Verdict: Advantage Boise State
FINAL TAKE
If we go through and take a look at where I think each team has advantages it is split into four for Boise State and four for Georgia with one being even. I think that plays into the fact that Boise State plays close games when they play good teams. Over the past two years Boise State has played three AQ schools and have averaged winning by under ten points. So I don’t think there is any reason to think Boise is going to win this one in a blow out. On paper, I see these teams as equal with Boise having the edge in experience and Georgia having the edge in talent. I think this game comes down to two major factors. The first is the line of scrimmage. Last year Georgia was often beat at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Georgia made changes in the off-season to their Strength & Conditioning (and nutrition) program, brought in a new OL coach with a new blocking scheme and also have a couple of big bodies that are looking to fill the hole in the middle of their 3-4 defense. On paper, Georgia has made a lot of improvements but will it translate to the field in week one? I think Georgia will take a big (but not gigantic) step forward in week one in these areas. I see them making enough of an improvement to negate some of Boise’s perceived advantage along the lines of scrimmage. I think the line of scrimmage ends up being an even battle. But if there is a clear winner along the line of scrimmage then that team will win this game. The other area that I feel will have a big impact on the game is Special Teams and I see a clear advantage for Georgia in this area. Boise State will score more TDs in this game but I think Blair Walsh will be the difference in this one.
PREDICTION: GEORGIA 26 BOISE STATE 21
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