Now it starts getting real around here.
Since last we spoke, Alabama grinded out a predictably comfortable win against Penn State in Happy Valley and returned home to post a somewhat-ugly-but-still-mildly-impressive shutout over North Texas. So what have we really learned about this team through the first three games? I have a few random thoughts on the season so far before we dive into my Advice for the Tide against Arkansas.
–AJ McCarron is the quarterback. Still love ya, Phillip, but you’re not ready yet. Hope you stick around to take another shot at the job in the future. If not, best of luck.
–The defense has indeed grown up. I know Penn State isn’t exactly Arkansas or LSU, but I was very impressed with how matter-of-factly these guys went about their business in the sort of road environment that gave them such problems in 2010. Even on that first drive when PSU was emptying out every formation and personnel grouping in their playbook to move the ball, the defense kept their head and conceded no big plays. And once they had seen everything the Nittany Lions had to offer, they completely throttled them until the victory was in hand and they lost interest.
–All of the personnel rotation has made it difficult to figure out exactly what the Tide’s offensive line will really look like for the remainder of the season, but as a whole, the unit has shown progress towards becoming the type of run-blocking force of nature that the great lines of 08 and 09 were. It was a rough start, but they seemed to find a groove in the 2nd half of the Penn State game and kept that momentum going against North Texas, paving the way for over 300 yards rushing for Richardson and Lacy in that one. How much of that success was a product of being up against a worn-out PSU and an overmatched NT remains to be seen, but sometimes a team just needs to be able to go out and DO something, regardless of who it’s against, to be able to figure out that they can. If that makes any sense.
–I’m intrigued by the lack of any Wildcat plays through the first 3 games. It wasn’t a terribly effective formation in 2010, so I’m wondering if they’ve scrapped it completely or if they’ve got a new wrinkle for it (coughBlakeSimscough) that they haven’t wanted to show yet. Maybe we’ll find out on Saturday…
–I’m loving all these freshmen special teams warriors. In particular, Vinnie Sunseri and Trey DePriest have given me more enjoyment out of watching kick coverage than I can ever remember. Honorary mention to indiscriminate headbuster Hasean Clinton-Dix.
–I’m glad Saban finally put the Duron Carter story to bed this week by confirming what we’ve all sorta been expecting for a while now: He’s not playing this year. And I think the team will be okay without him. Marquis Maze has shown enough to convince me he can be the #1 guy this year. With Darius Hanks offering solid support and contributions from younger players who have flashed in early games (DeAndrew White against Kent St, Kenny Bell against North Texas), the receiving corps looks like it will pull it’s weight. The emergence of Michael Williams and Brad Smelly as receiving threats from the tight end spot also helps matters.
Anyway, on to this week’s matchup with the Razorbacks. As always, we forego the basic tenets of the faith (run the ball, stop the run, don’t turn the ball over). This was actually a fairly difficult game to size up due to Arkansas playing lousy competition through their first 3 games and holding out several key players in the process. We’re still not exactly sure what this Arkansas team is. But here’s my best guesses for what the Tide needs to do to win on Saturday:
1. Be prepared to weather the early storm. This should be a weekly mantra for the Alabama defense. It’s gotten to the point where every offense comes out of the gate throwing the book at the Tide D. Against Penn State, the level of contrivance almost turned into parody as they confused their own selves so much that they had to burn all 3 timeouts on the opening drive. There’s little doubt in my mind that Arkansas will attempt to be similarly tricky, but Bama will be extremely fortunate if it goes as poorly for the Razorbacks as it did the Lions. Arkansas is simply more talented and better coached and has essentially had the better part of 9 months to plot for their “real” season opener in Tuscaloosa.
The trick, just as it was in Happy Valley, will be for the defense to stay cool, play assigment sound, and wait for the actual game to settle in. Eventually, Penn State had to cut out the contortions and just be Penn State, and that wasn’t good enough to play with Alabama. At some point in this game, Arkansas will have to just be Arkansas. And that’s a matchup that this defense is perfectly capable of winning. Getting to that point without falling into a deep hole that your 1st-time SEC starter has to scrape and claw to get out of will be of utmost importance.
2. Attack Tyler Wilson. This is really where the game will be won or lost. If I could only give one piece of advice this week, this would be it. We’re all familiar with what the likes of Greg Childs, Joe Adams, Jarius Wright, et al are capable of doing when they get to make a play on the ball. It’s the best receiving corps in the country, bar none. For Bama to win, they need to keep the ball out of their hands as much as possible. Wilson may be a 1st-time SEC starter in his own right, but he’s no stranger to the pressure of playing in an intense road environment, as evidenced by his mostly spectacular play in relief of Ryan Mallett at Auburn last year. He’s proven that he can be an efficient conductor of Bobby Petrino’s offense when he has time. I don’t think this is a game where Bama can lay back and play coverage all day, because those outstanding receivers will get open and a comfortable Wilson will find them.
Of course, knowing the Tide like I do, I know they’ll start the game doing just that: rushing 3 or 4 guys, tops, and playing coverage while they feel out Arkansas’ gameplan through the first few series. And, you know, if they find that they can get adequate pressure on Wilson with minimum rush, it’s going to be a looooong day for Arkansas. But I think they’ll eventually have to adjust and bring more exotic blitzes to get Wilson out of his comfort zone.
The #1 target for Bama’s pass rush should be true freshman offensive tackle Mitch Smothers. Arkansas employs a fairly unique OL system for the college game. Instead of having strictly “right” and “left” tackles, they have “weakside” and “strongside” tackles who flip-flop as dictated by the needs of any particular play. Smothers plays the weakside. So not only will the Hogs be starting a freshman on the edge, they’ll be starting a freshman who, by the very definition of his job, can’t get tight end help. Saban and Smart would be fools not to put this kid to the test early and often. If they can crack him, Arky’s ability to win this game take a significant hit.
3. It’s time for the Tide Secondary to take back it’s manhood. Bama fans don’t need too many reminders, but last year’s trip to Fayetteville was an ugly, ugly day for Bama’s defensive backs. When they weren’t getting rattled by the raucous crowd and busting coverages, they were getting bullied at the line of scrimmage by Arkansas’ receivers. Dre Kirkpatrick, in particular, was repeatedly manhandled by Greg Childs. Kirby Smart can dial up all the QB pressures he wants, but if the corners get tossed aside as casually as they were in 2010, it won’t matter. The ball will be out of Wilson’s hands before anyone can touch him.
This game will be a true gutcheck for the secondary. Playing at home, communication should not be an issue. Everybody should know their job on every play this time around, leaving no excuse for losing to the man lined up across from them. The Tide secondary won’t play a better receiving corps all year, and regardless of the outcome, I guess they can be glad of that. But for the Tide to win this game, those receivers also need to leave Bryant-Denny convinced they won’t play a better secondary.
4. Bama’s Wide Receivers must win one-on-one coverage battles. The general consensus among Bama fans has long been that the Crimson Tide has top-notch coaching at every position…except wide receiver. It has been a source of chronic frustration that no receiver (except that physical freak Julio) seems capable of getting separation down the field. Well, the coach who bore the brunt of most of that criticism, Curt Cignetti, has moved on, replaced this year by Mike Groh, and this will be the first real test for Groh’s unit.
While the OL’s run blocking seems to be improving, pass blocking remains somewhat of a concern. Namely, guards Chance Warmack and Anthony Steen have had struggles picking up more elaborate blitzes and line techniques. Also, jumbo right tackle DJ Fluker sometimes has trouble getting out of his own way when dealing with speed rushers. And the verdict is still out on the left tackle situation with Barrett Jones playing out of his natural position. With a rookie QB playing behind those guys, what that all likely adds up to is a very conservative gameplan. Maybe something a bit bolder than what we saw at Penn State, but still very “safe,” with an emphasis on the running game and when they do pass, I bet they do much of it out of their tight end sets that allow for additional protection. Meaning it will be on the two or three wideouts to get open at all costs.
Arkansas has some solid defensive backs, but they’re not so talented that cagey veterans like Maze and Hanks shouldn’t be able to win against them (they did just give up almost 400 yards passing to Troy, after all). If they can’t, not only does it not bode well for the Tide’s chances of winning this game, it makes that date with LSU in November look all the more daunting. The kids in LSU’s secondary look fierce.
THE PICK
Alabama caught a very good break yesterday when Petrino announced that defensive end Jake Bequette would not be available to play in this game. While the Hogs are by no means short on depth on the DL, I don’t think they have an extra All-SEC lineman laying around. He will be missed in this one, no two ways about it.
In fact, if not for key injuries to Bequette and Knile Davis, I’d probably take Arkansas in this one. Those two guys are special, and at a place like Arkansas, where they don’t exactly recruit the lights out, those types of difference-makers are extremely difficult to replace in short order. I think those losses coupled with Bama’s home field advantage tip the scales in the Tide’s favor in what I expect to be another very close game between these two. I would not at all be surprised if this game plays out similarly to last year’s contest, with Arkansas having early success against a vanilla defense but struggling once Bama becomes more aggressive, while the Tide offense slowly and steadily chips away at the lead until victory is in hand.
Alabama 23, Arkansas 20
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