After a rocky start in Week 1 (2-4!), I took a week off to regroup and rebounded with a very nice 5-1 mark last week. Let’s let the good times roll in Week 4…
NORTH CAROLINA (3-0, 1-0) at #25 GEORGIA TECH (3-0, 0-0) (ESPN, 12pm ET)
Georgia Tech has been utterly destroying its opponents so far — they’ve outscored their opponents by a combined score of 178 to 66 and a week ago they ran rampant (604 yards on 12.1 ypc) on a hapless Kansas squad — but they’ve also been feasting on poor competition: a bad FCS team (Western Carolina), a bad Sun Belt team (Middle Tennessee State), and a bad Big 12 team (Kansas). That ends this week as they play a 3-0 North Carolina team that’s off to a fine start after yet another scandal-racked off-season. Of course, North Carolina hasn’t played a murderer’s row yet, either — James Madison, Rutgers, and Virginia, all at home. Georgia Tech will be their first difficult test, and their first road trip of the season. The Coastal Division was all but ceded to Virginia Tech in the offseason, but this game could go a long way in determining who VT’s main challenger will be. Georgia Tech won’t be setting any new rushing records this week, but it’s still tough to bet against their offense right now. That plus homefield advantage is enough for me to favor Tech here.
THE PICK: GEORGIA TECH 38, NORTH CAROLINA 28
#14 ARKANSAS (3-0, 0-0) at #3 ALABAMA (3-0, 0-0) (CBS, 3:30pm ET)
A year ago, these two teams played a scorcher, with Arkansas blowing a late lead and coming up just short against then then-#1 Alabama. Unfortunately, since then Arkansas has lost their best QB (Ryan Mallett, off to the NFL) and best RB (Knile Davis, out with an injury) and Alabama’s defense has continued to evolve into an impenetrable brick wall. The Bama offense has been a little more stop-and-start (losing a top QB, RB, and WR will do that, I imagine), but performed admirably in their only game this year against quality opposition (Penn State). Arkansas made Bama sweat last year because Mallett was able to victimize some young defenders; those defenders have matured now and Mallett’s gone. I see Bama grinding out a decisive win.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 27, ARKANSAS 13
#7 OKLAHOMA STATE (3-0, 0-0) at #8 TEXAS A&M (2-0, 0-0) (ABC, 3:30pm ET)
And here we have arguably the top match-up of the week — it’s definitely the only game between two Top 10 teams all weekend. In any event, there’s a lot on the line here: neither Oklahoma State nor Texas A&M has been tested too severely this season (although Oklahoma State did thrash Arizona and survived a bizarre late (late) night game experience at Tulsa last week), so this will be the first real chance to see how good both teams are — and to see which team will be best-positioned to challenge Oklahoma for the Big XII crown. It’s also fairly uncharted territory for both programs (neither has been ranked in the Top Ten very often in recent years), so it should also be a good test of which program can handle the spotlight that comes with being a highly ranked favorite. Oh yeah, and it might just be the last time these teams ever play, with Texas A&M headed to the SEC in the very near future. Suffice to say, the atmosphere for this game should be pretty electric. And the football? It shouldn’t be too bad, either — especially if you like to see teams running up and down the field and scoring points in bunches. Both teams have been terrorizing opposing defenses with high-powered passing attacks, but Oklahoma State’s is probably of slightly higher quality: old man QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon have developed a devastating rapport amd RB Joseph Randle (378 yards, 7 TD) is off to a pretty rip-roaring start on the ground, too. I think they edge the Aggies in a thriller.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE 41, TEXAS A&M 38
#11 FLORIDA STATE (2-1, 0-0) at #21 CLEMSON (3-0, 0-0) (ESPN, 3:30pm ET)
The ACC’s other marquee matchup features one team coming off its biggest win in two years (Clemson, who notched an upset OT win over 10th-ranked Miami) and one team coming off a painful high-profile loss (Florida State, who was battered mentally and physically in last week’s game against Oklahoma). Oh, and there’s the little matter of the winner of this game likely having the inside track to winning the Atlantic Division title. Not much on the line here. Florida State may have come up short a week ago, but they acquitted themselves well in defeat. The difference in the game wound up being Oklahoma’s experience on offense: guys like Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles have played in quite a few big games during their Oklahoma careers and they responded to the pressure well. Florida State’s offense couldn’t make enough plays to match them, especially after starting QB E.J. Manuel went out with an injury (replacement QB Clint Trickett struggled aside from a semi-miraculous TD heave that briefly tied the game). But their defense was beastly, swarming around the Oklahoma offense and stifling it for much of the game. Even the game’s biggest play, the go-ahead touchdown pass from Jones to Kenny Stills was more a result of near-perfect offensive execution than a flaw in the defense. Now they face a red-hot Clemson attack led by QB Tajh Boyd that shredded the Auburn defense like a roll of wet toilet paper. That’s an important note, really: while the Clemson offense was undeniably impressive over the final three quarters last week, they were also playing a defense that had been shredded by both Utah State and Mississippi State in previous weeks. They simply aren’t very good — the Florida State defense is. I think that defense keeps this one low-scoring enough for the Seminoles to bounce back… although that also presumes that Manuel is healthy enough to direct the FSU offense here. If he’s out, I’d probably lean Clemson.
THE PICK: FLORIDA STATE 27, CLEMSON 21
#2 LSU (3-0, 1-0) at #16 WEST VIRGINIA (3-0, 0-0) (ABC, 8:00pm ET)
So an SEC team comes to visit Morgantown in the same week that West Virginia’s bid to join the SEC was allegedly turned down? Yeah, I’m sure that won’t add a little more gasoline on the metaphorical (and probably literal) couch fires in Morgantown this weekend. The atmosphere for this game was already going to be molten — Morgantown at night is already crazy, but throw in a visit from the 2nd-ranked team in the country (from the biggest and baddest conference in the land, no less) — and you have the makings of a crowd experience that may even eclipse last week’s tremendous Florida State home crowd. As far as the game itself, it may or may not be a good sign when the two most intriguing figures on the field will be the two men patrolling the sidelines with a headset on. Miles is, of course, famously eccentric, fond of munching grass and mangling the English language, and new WVU coach Dana Holgorson is no vanilla coach himself. Holgo is renowned for his dynamic, creative passing attacks and thus far WVU hasn’t disappointed: QB Geno Smith has already thrown for 1000+ yards with a 7/1 TD/INT ratio. But they also haven’t faced a defense in the same hemisphere as the deep, talented crew of wrecking balls that LSU will be rolling out there Saturday night. With West Virginia having little to no runnign game, LSU’s fearsome defensive line may be able to tee off on Smith and the exceptionally talented secondary could make life very difficult for his receivers. Barring some untimely gifts from LSU QB Jarrett Lee (always a possibility), this seems like a comfortable LSU win.
THE PICK: LSU 28, WEST VIRGINIA 14
#23 USC (3-0, 1-0) at ARIZONA STATE (2-1, 0-0) (ESPN, 10:15pm ET)
For most of the last decade, USC was the standard bearer in the Pac-10 and the team that every program in the league measured itself against. To reach the top of the mountain in the Pac-10, you needed to beat the Trojans. Arizona State, frequently labeled a team on the rise in the ’00s, never could get over that hump — and they never did ascend to the top of the Pac-10. These days, the Trojans aren’t atop the Pac-10 (now 12) mountain — Stanford and Oregon are — but they’re still a potent brand name and a key divisional opponent: if the Sun Devils want to battle the Ducks or the Cardinal for conference supremacy, they’re going to have to get by USC first. That seems genuinely possible this year: USC is at a low ebb in Year 2 under Lane Kiffin and Arizona State has arguably the best team ever assembled in Dennis Erickson’s tenure. They got bushwhacked by Illinois in Champaign last week, but they should be focused and ready for this game. USC had their most impressive win of the season a week ago, but they still look iffy: their offense has been too much of a one-trick pony (Matt Barkley to Robert Woods, rinse and repeat) and their defense has been inconsistent. I think ASU exposes their flaws in this late-night desert clash and takes over pole position in the race to win the Pac-12 South.
THE PICK: ARIZONA STATE 30, USC 24
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