Week Five SEC Predictions

Week four of the SEC season is in the books without any major on-field surprises and our thoughts are here. So how did I do in terms of predictions last week? Pretty good if I do say so myself. 7-0 straight up which brings me to 30-6 on the year. This week is where it starts to get tricky as there are a few games that look to be pretty close.

Texas A&M (2-1) vs Arkansas (3-1), in Arlington, Noon EST, ESPN

Neither team has beaten anybody of note but both teams have been tested once. A&M got up early on Oklahoma State and looked like they would roll but Mike Gundy brought his team back and edged the Aggies by a single point. Arkansas got taken out to the woodshed by Alabama last week by the tune of 38-14. Arkansas star DE Jake Bequette is still questionable and they also lost junior Tenarius Wright at that same position against Bama. I like A&M to establish the run in this game early and hold on late.

Texas A&M 31 Arkansas 27

Mississippi State (2-2) at Georgia (2-2), Noon, Fox Sports South/ESPN3

I will be doing a game preview for this game so I will hold off on my prediction until that is posted on Friday.

Kentucky (2-2) at LSU (4-0), 12:21 PM EST, SEC Network

Duh.

LSU 49 Kentucky 0

Buffalo (1-3) at Tennessee (2-1), 12:30 PM EST, ESPN3

Tennessee needs this as they are still licking their wounds after losing to Florida and maybe more importantly losing WR Justin Hunter for the season. Look for Tyler Bray to have a huge game as the Vols get ready to host the Georgia Bulldogs next week.

Tennessee 41 Buffalo 13

Auburn (3-1) at South Carolina (4-0), 3:30 PM EST, CBS

Auburn has a real shot in this game especially after the Gamecocks showing against Vandy last week. Auburn’s shot at winning this game is making it a track meet and getting their speed in space against a South Carolina defense that has some fantastic play-makers but overall doesn’t play good team defense. South Carolina will try to pound the ball down Auburn’s throat with Marcus Lattimore and ultimately I think that is how the Gamecocks will win this game. Lattimore will wear down the Tigers late and they will control the ball and the scoreboard down the stretch.

South Carolina 35 Auburn 27

Alabama (4-0) at Florida (4-0), 8 PM EST, CBS

Our buddy Matt Elder thinks Florida is going to pull the upset of Alabama. I say not so fast my friend. Florida has been successful this season running the ball and using the dink and dunk on offense to gain most of their yards. In fact, Florida is leading the SEC in rushing at 259 yards per game. They’ve also scored 12 TDs on the ground, which is second in the conference to only Alabama. Florida is sixth in passing in the conference but John Brantley still scares me and Florida’s Wide Receivers’ have still failed to catch a TD this year through four games. I think Bama, who has the best rushing defense so far in the SEC at 45 yards allowed per game, will be able to contain the Florida rushing attack and short pass game and force them to adjust. In doing so, the Gators will play into Bama’s hand. This will probably be a very close game going into the half but I think Bama pulls away in the second half.

Alabama 31 Florida 17

Ole Miss Rebels (1-3) at Fresno State (2-2), 9:15 PM EST, ESPN2

While this one is not the most marquee match-up of the week it might be the toughest one to predict. As a Georgia fan, I was sickened watching the Ole Miss offense last week. The Rebels put together a decent first drive but after that the only offense they had was seemingly on “trick” plays. The QB play for the Rebels is abysmal and it puts in check some of the talent that they have at RB (Scott and Bolden) and WR (Moncrief). To top that off the Rebels defense didn’t look good either as Georgia rolled up 475 yards against them. Fresno State on the other hand has only beaten North Dakota and Idaho and only beat North Dakota by 5 points. Last year, Ole Miss rolled up 55 points on Fresno State at home in route to a 55-38 victory. But Ole Miss has a much worse offense this year and a very similar defense. My head tells me that Houston Nutt is going to find a way to win this game but after watching and undisciplined Ole Miss team get takenout by Georgia (the score did not indicate the results on the field) I’m leaning Fresno State in this one.

Fresno State 28 Ole Miss 27