2012 Record: 8-5
Head Coach: Bronco Mendenhall (74-29 at BYU)
Four Year Trend: 9 wins and 4 losses per year
Last Bowl Game: 2012 Poinsettia Bowl: beat SDSU 23-6
Stadium: LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, UT (capacity = 63,470)
Schedule Glimpse:
Revenge: 9/21 vs Utah, 10/25 vs Boise State, 11/23 at Notre Dame
Other Key Games: 9/7 vs Texas, 10/12 vs Georgia Tech, 11/9 at Wisconsin
Statistical Snapshot:
Stats to Fear: 25 turnovers in 2012, scored on 78.13% of red zone trips (90th in Nation)
Stats to Cheer: held opponents to 26.52% conversion rate on third downs (1st in Nation), allowed 14 ppg in 2012 (3rd in Nation)
Advanced Stats (Football Outsiders 2012 FEI Ranking): 29th out of 124 teams
Personnel:
Phil Steele’s Returning Starters: Offense: 8, Defense: 4, Special Teams: 1
Key Defensive Returnees: LB Kyle Van Noy (52 tackles, 13 sacks), LB Spencer Hadley (55 tackles, 3.5 sacks), S Daniel Sorensen (67 tackles, 3 INT), DE Bronson Kaufusi (4.5 sacks)
Key Offensive Returnees: QB Taysom Hill (425 yds pass, 4 TD, 2 INT, 336 yds rush), RB Jamaal Williams (775 yds rush, 4.67 ypc, 12 TD), WR Cody Hoffman (100 rec, 11 TD)
Top 2013 Recruits: OT Brayden Kearsley, WR Talon Shumway, OG Merrill Taliauli
Inside Scoop with Blue Cougar Football:
CFBZ: In our 2012 preview, you predicted an 11-2 record. BYU finished 8-5. What were the main reasons the Cougars finished below your expectations?
Blue Cougar Football: While 8-5 and 11-2 look far apart on paper, the 2012 BYU football team wasn’t that far from finishing with the record I predicted. Since the Cougar D was the best in school history last year, it was literally a handful of plays that made the difference. Some, if not most, BYU fans would tell you that poor quarterback play cost BYU a special season, and they could make a pretty strong case for it. Senior Riley Nelson was injured in the second game of the season, but continued to start in games three and four. He made some costly mistakes in those two games, however, not all the blame for the three-point loss at Utah and one-point loss at Boise State can be placed on Nelson’s fractured back.
The list of costly mistakes by the offensive line in these same two games is very long, and they had nothing to do with the quarterback playing hurt. Seven false start penalties by the offensive line went a long way in changing the course of the Utah game. Yet, BYU still could have won if the line had blocked just a little better on the final offensive play of the game. BYU had a wide open receiver behind the Utah secondary. It was a guaranteed touchdown and win, except Nelson didn’t have the time he needed to throw the ball. In Boise, BYU was ready to take a 7-0 first half lead, but a 15-yard illegal blocking penalty turned what would have been 1st and Goal on the one-yard line into 3rd and 16 at the 17. BYU threw an interception the very next play. Then, late in the fourth quarter, BYU would have taken an 8-7 lead on a two-point conversion, but one particular offensive lineman got blown up by a Broncos D-lineman, which forced a poor throw that fell incomplete.
The losses to Notre Dame (3 points) and San Jose State (6 points) could have just as easily been wins with better quarterback play.
CFBZ: What do you see as the biggest strengths on this team going into 2013?
Blue Cougar Football: As far as position groups go, the two strongest going into the season are outside linebacker and running back. Kyle Van Noy is the BYU outside linebacker getting national attention, and projected to be an NFL first-round draft pick next year, but Spencer Hadley had a very good 2012 season as well. Hadley can do anything you would want an OLB to do–rush the QB, drop into pass coverage, stop the run, etc. Alani Fua is another talented player coming up behind Van Noy and Hadley. Fua will see a lot more action this year as BYU prepared to replace Van Noy and Hadley in 2014.
The talent pool at running back is very deep. Jamaal Williams set a new school record for most rushing yards by a true freshman last season (775). He will start the season as the guy. With a year of experience, expect his 2013 totals to be much better as he can more effectively use his speed, strength, and ability to make guys miss in the open field. Behind Williams is senior Michael Alisa and Paul Lasike. Lasike was a rugby convert last year, but showed promise as the season wore on. Adam Hine is another running back. He has no experience, but was a major playmaker in the spring. Hine is going to earn some playing time and make some noise.
Some intangible strengths for BYU this season are experience and getting a fresh start. Several key starters have to be replaced on defense, but most of the projected replacements have quality game experience. As detailed in question one, the 2012 season was filled with heartbreaking losses. The 2013 season provides a fresh start for the Cougar offense. There is a new quarterback, and an entirely new offensive coaching staff. A slew of new offensive linemen are competing for the five starting spots.
CFBZ: On paper, BYU looks to have a pretty aggressive schedule this season. Which games do the fans have circled?
Blue Cougar Football: First and foremost is the Utah game September 21. Having lost three in a row and this being the last time the two arch-rivals will play until 2016, it is a must win game for BYU.
Before Utah, the Texas Longhorns come to town September 7. This is the first big home game for BYU as an independent. Texas is expected to be very highly ranked. BYU suffered a tough loss in Austin back in 2011, and fans would love to avenge that 1-point heartbreaker. This game will be a good barometer for how good this team really is.
Boise State comes to Provo on October 25. BYU is 0-3 all-time against the Broncos, including two one-point losses. Boise State has stolen BYU’s identity, and the only way to get it back is to beat them head-to-head.
A road game to Wisconsin on November 9 is huge. Not only is it an opportunity to make a huge statement by beating the team that has dominated the Big Ten of late, but the Badgers are now led by former Utah State head coach Gary Andersen. Andersen’s son Chasen signed a letter of intent to play for BYU this last February, but he recently changed his mind and will now play for his father at Wisconsin. Badger linebacker Vince Biegel is the son of former BYU great Rocky Biegel. There are several intriguing angles to this game besides the fact that it is Wisconsin.
Last of all in a return trip to South Bend on November 23. This is another revenge game. BYU took a lead into the fourth quarter against the Fighting Irish last year only to lose by three. The only was to really thrive as an independent is convince the nation you are as good as Notre Dame. That means winning when playing head-to-head.
CFBZ: What is your gut feeling on the final record for the 2013 season and what makes the season successful in your eyes?
Blue Cougar Football: The 2013 season will be a success if BYU can win the “State Championship” (beat Utah and Utah State) and finish in the top 25. To finish in the final national rankings, BYU can probably do that with a 9-4 record. They will have to beat Boise State, and win one of the big November road games (Wisconsin, Notre Dame). There can’t be any embarrassing losses, either.
Gut feeling won-loss record: 8-5
Verdict:
In it’s six games against winning teams last season, the Cougars averaged just 14.5 ppg. If the Cougars want to take the next step this season, it’s going to have to happen on the offensive side of the football. Taysom Hill’s freshman season was ended short last year when he injured his knee. This year, the Cougars will look for him to lead their offense. Hill is a dual threat QB and if he can stay healthy he should help the offense be more dynamic this season. As stated in our Q&A, the Cougars have a good young RB in Jamaal Williams. The receivers have been getting a lot of hype this off-season (Phil Steele has them ranked as the #13 receiving unit in the country). Led by Cody Hoffman, the Cougars have five receivers/TEs that caught at least twenty passes last year. It was also stated in our Q&A that the OL was ineffective at times last season. That unit will be under a lot of pressure to make sure they protect Hill when needed. This unit has a total of 51 starts under their belt which ranks them 84th in the Nation.
The BYU defense allowed just 14 ppg last season and that number increased to only 15.8 when they played teams with winning records. In 2011, the Cougars gave up 30.8 ppg against winning teams so the change was dramatic. If BYU can continue it’s defensive dominance and the offense makes improvements then this will be a team to watch but it will be a challenge as they lose three of their top four tacklers.
Prediction: 8-4
Previous 2013 Pre-Season Previews:
ACC- Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12- Kansas, Kansas St, Texas Tech
C-USA- ECU, FAU, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, Tulsa, Tulane, UAB, UTEP, UTSA
Independent: Army, Idaho, Navy, New Mexico St, Old Dominion
MAC- Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, EMU, Kent State, Miami (OH), Ohio, Toledo, UMass, WMU
MWC- Air Force, Colorado St, Fresno St, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, SDSU, SJSU, UNLV, Utah St, Wyoming
Pac-12- Washington State
SEC- Arkansas, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt- Arkansas State, Georgia State, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, ULM, WKU
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