2012 Record: 8-5 (5-4 in Big 12)
Head Coach: Mike Gundy (67-35 at Oklahoma St, 38-28 in Big 12)
Four Year Trend: 10 wins and 3 losses
Last Bowl Game: 2013 Heart of Dallas Bowl: crushed Purdue 58-14
Stadium: Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, OK (capacity = 60,218)
Home Field Advantage: ranked 19th out of 69 BCS teams
Schedule Glimpse:
Out of Conference: 8/31 vs Mississippi State, 9/7 at UTSA, 9/14 vs Lamar
Toughest Home Games: 10/5 vs Kansas St, 10/19 vs TCU, 12/7 vs Oklahoma
Toughest Road Games: 11/16 at Texas, 11/23 vs Baylor
Statistical Snapshot:
Stat to Fear: gave up 45.3 ppg in games against ranked opponents (Texas, Kansas St, Oklahoma)
Stats to Cheer: had 92 plays of 20 or more yards (1st in Big 12), scored on 93.06% of trips to red zone (1st in Big 12)
Advanced Stats (Football Outsiders 2012 FEI Ranking): 14th out of 124 teams
Personnel:
Phil Steele's Returning Starters: Offense: 8, Defense: 7, Special Teams: 0
Key Defensive Returnees: S Daytawion Lowe (75 tackles), S Shamiel Gary (72 tackles), CB Justin Gilbert (63 tackles), LB Shaun Lewis (58 tackles), LB Caleb Lavey (53 tackles), DT Calvin Barnett (30 tackles),
Key Offensive Returnees: QB Clint Chelf (1588 yds pass, 60.4% completions, 15 TD, 6 INT), QB JW Walsh (1564 yds pass, 66.9% completions, 13 TD, 3 INT), RB Jeremy Smith (371 yds rush, 5.3 ypc, 8 TD), WR Josh Stewart (101 rec, 7 TD)
Top 2013 Recruits: ATH Jerel Morrow, DT Vincent Taylor, RB Rennie Childs
Inside Scoop with Pistols Firing:
CFBZ: What will make the 2013 season a success in your eyes?
Pistols Firing: I think anything less than 9-3 is a borderline failure (pending injuries, Gundy leaving for an SEC team in the middle of the season, etc.) If you lose by a touchdown at Texas, in overtime to Mississippi State, and TCU gets you at home then ok, whatever, it's football — but you start racking up four or five losses in a season you're picked to win the Big 12, I think that's pretty unacceptable.
Verdict:
While many remember Mike Gundy as the QB protecting ranter on youtube, he's actually carved out a nice career for himself as a successful head coach. 2010 and 2011 have served as the peak for Oklahoma State under Gundy so far (a combined record of 23-3) but after a "down" 8-5 season in 2012, the Cowboys are looking up again with the hope of taking a Big 12 crown.
Last year the Cowboys lost Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon but the offense kept on rolling as they only decreased 3 ppg and from where I sit if you are scoring 45.7 a game then you should be winning pretty much every game. This year the Cowboys must replace offensive coordinator Todd Monken as he has moved on to Southern Miss where he will try and clean up Ellis Johnson's mess. The Cowboys will turn to Mike Yurcich. You probably haven't heard of him but Mike Gundy scoured college football and decided on Yurcich because he ran the No 1 Division II offense. It's kind of an out of left field hire but Gundy has a great history with assistant coaching hires. Yurcich and Gundy will have a big decision this fall as they must choose a QB from Clint Chelf and JW Walsh. As a senior, Chelf has been in the system longer but Walsh is the long-term solution. RB Joseph Randle exits to the NFL but the Cowboys still have some nice options with Jeremy Smith and Desmond Roland. At WR, Josh Stewart really stepped up last year as he increased his receptions from 19 as a frosh to 101 as a sophomore. The other receivers need to be more consistent this season. The OL is in a bit of a transition as they lose three starters and return just 38 career starts.
When you score 45.7 ppg your defense doesn't have to be great but it does need to be situationally strong. Last year, the Cowboys were good on third downs (36.28%) and they were good in the red zone (77.36% score rate and 56.6% TD rate) but they struggled in those areas against ranked teams (48.98% third down conversions and 84.21% score rate and 63.16% TD rate). Obviously your defense isn't going to fare as well against Top 25 opponents as they are against non Top 25 but those are the games that the Cowboys have to win if they want to win the Big 12. Mike Gundy has fired defensive coordinator Bill Young and will now turn to Glenn Spencer. Spencer was an internal promotion as he has coached the defensive line and linebackers in his tenure with the Cowboys and will look to make the Cowboys a more "aggressive" defense. The defensive line returns three of it's top six players so there will be some consistency but also some turnover. The LB unit loses it's top tackler but returns the next four. The secondary loses only Brodrick Brown but will replace him with transfer Tyler Patmon.
Breaking in two new coordinators will be tough but with Gundy at the helm, and his track record with coordinators, I think you can bet that there will be consistency despite the changes. From the looks of the schedule, it will be decided in two different phases. The first is from 9/28 to 10/19 when the Cowboys travel to West Virginia and then host Kansas State and TCU (after a bye week). The next phase is the toughest and is the final three games of the season as the Cowboys travel to Texas then host Baylor and then host Oklahoma after a bye week. I think the 9/28 to 10/19 stretch is the key to the season because if they can win those three games then this team will be sky high come middle of November. This Cowboys team should eclipse last years squad and should be right in the middle of the Big 12 race.
Prediction: 9-3
Previous 2013 Pre-Season Previews:
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