2013 Pre-Season Preview: NC State Wolfpack

2012 Record: 7-6 (4-4 in ACC)

Head Coach: Dave Doeren (1st year at NC State, 23-4 at NIU)

Last Bowl Game: 2012 Music City Bowl: lost to Vandy 38-24

Stadium: Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, NC (capacity = 57,583)

Home Field Advantage: ranked 21st out of 69 BCS teams

Schedule Glimpse:

2013 Schedule Link

Out of Conference: 8/31 vs Louisiana Tech, 9/7 vs Richmond, 9/28 vs CMU, 11/23 vs ECU

Toughest Home Games: 9/19 vs Clemson, 11/2 vs UNC

Toughest Road Game: 10/26 at FSU

Statistical Snapshot:

2012 Statistics Link

Stats to Fear: had 33 turnovers in 2012 (last in ACC), gave up 20 plays of 40 or more yards in 2012 (11th in ACC)

Stats to Cheer: had 33 sacks in 2012 (4th in ACC), held opponents to 26.77% on third downs (1st in ACC)

Advanced Stats (Football Outsiders 2012 FEI Ranking): 59th out of 124 teams

Personnel:

Phil Steele's Returning Starters: Offense: 5, Defense: 5, Special Teams: 2

Key Defensive Returnees: CB Dontae Johnson (70 tackles), DE Darryl Cato-Bishop (6.5 sacks, 36 tackles), DE Art Norman (5.5 sacks, 33 tackles), DT T.Y. McGill (5 sacks, 39 tackles)

Key Offensive Returnees: RB Shadrach Thornton (694 yds rush, 4.5 ypc), RB Tony Creecy (476 yds rush, 3.7 ypc, 5 TD), WR Quintin Payton (51 rec), WR Bryan Underwood (44 rec)

Top 2013 Recruits: OLB Johnathan Alston, OG Tylar Reagan, RB Josh Mercer, S Joshua Jones, RB Matt Dayes

Inside Scoop with James Curle of Riddick & Reynolds:

CFBZ: Dave Doeren comes to NC State after two years at NIU. What changes should we expect to see in this Wolfpack team in year one?

James Curle: From a broader sense, expect a much, MUCH faster tempo to State's offense. There will be very few wasted seconds on the play clock, which will likely have some notable consequences for NC State on both sides of the ball: As the game progresses, the hope is opposing defenses will be gassed and less effective. Conversely, the faster State scores or gets off the field, the faster State's defense will wear down. So expect games to start off fast and furious, with scoring by both teams increasing as the third and fourth quarters progress and both defenses start getting rubbery legs.

CFBZ: NC State must replace Mike Glennon at QB. Who will take over?

James Curle: Gone is Mike Glennon and so are Tom O'Brien and his offensive coordinator Dana Bible, so the drop-back-passing attack folks saw the last two years in Raleigh is gone with them. Doeren's biggest challenge will be finding a quarterback to run his preferred brand of offense, a style described as a blend of Oregon and Wisconsin, orchestrated by offensive coordinator Matt Canada (who served in that same capacity the last two seasons under Bret Bielema at Wisconsin). There are a lot of potential candidates at quarterback, such as transfers Pete Thomas (Colorado St., sat out last season) and Brandon Mitchell (grad transfer from Arkansas), along with a slew of four underclassmen comprised of Manny Stocker (Soph), Garrett Leatham (RS Soph), Josh Taylor (Fr) and Bryant Shirreffs (Fr). Given Thomas sat last year and Glennon played the vast majority of the 2012 snaps, all six of these candidates have either no snaps or precious few on their Wolfpack resumes. That levels the playing field a bit, but you would expect Thomas, a former 4-star prospect with FBS experience, and Mitchell, a guy who wouldn't have transferred here for one season just to watch, would be your two leading candidates to win the starting job by the time fall practice ends.

Whoever separates themselves from the crowd will likely be the quarterback who shows the best blend of passing ability and running/scrambling ability. Expect a much more mobile quarterback under center at State during the Doeren era.

CFBZ: Who are some under the radar players that fans should keep an eye on this season?

James Curle: State lost several key pieces at receiver during the offseason, so expect one or two relatively unknown guys to step up and contribute. I'm thinking specifically of a Charlie Hegedus who showed flashes of talent last season.

CFBZ: What will make the 2013 season a success in your eyes?

James Curle: Obviously new coaching staffs have the luxury of having little expected of them beyond the standard base levels of "just don't look confused or stupid out there." From a win-loss standpoint, I think eight wins is attainable if things break right and the team takes to it's new coaching quickly. If the team takes a while to go from a collection of players thinking about where they need to be to simply playing as a group instinctively, six or seven wins is more likely. Anything less than that would be disappointing.

But what I'll be more interested to see as the year goes on is how much progression and growth do they show from week one to week 12. A large leap in competency over that timeframe will give me hope that 2014 could be the makings of something special for the future of this program.

Verdict:

Dave Doeren was wildly successful in this two year stint at NIU going 23-4. He stepped into a good situation after Jerry Kill left for Minnesota (NIU was coming off of a 10-3 season). Now Doeren steps into a much more difficult situation as the Wolfpack went 7-5 last year and under Tom O'Brien (with the exception of 2010) has been decidedly average in the ACC. Phil Steele lists this Wolfpack team as the least experienced in the ACC and #112 in the Nation.

As we post this preview, Dave Doeren has stated that the QB battle is down to Pete Thomas and Brandon Mitchell. I see both guys as good but not great options for the Wolfpack. Brandon Mitchell is probably a better fit for the offense but if Doeren is going to go with the guy "who doesn't hurt us" then Mitchell probably isn't the guy although I do think he provides a higher upside than Thomas. NC State ran the ball poorly last year at a clip of 3.07 ypc but they do have some talent returning in rising sophomore Shadrach Thornton (4.51 ypc). He should prove to be a good fit in Doeren's offense but he will miss the first game with a suspension. Besides QB, the OL will be the biggest question-mark on offense as they return just 42 starts which is 12th in the ACC.

Dave Huxtable takes over as the defensive coordinator after spending 2012 in the same position at Pitt. Last year the defense gave up 25.6 ppg (4th in the ACC) and 404.7 ypg (8th in the ACC). This year, Huxtable must replace five of the top six tacklers so he has his work cut out for him.

NC State should feel very good about how their schedule starts out. Louisiana Tech is not a bad team by any means but they are also rebuilding under a new coach. When you look at the schedule, NC State should start out 4-1. Then they have a three game stretch with Syracuse, FSU and UNC that will be the toughest of the season. After that it's a three game stretch where NC State should be the favorite in every game as they play Duke, BC and ECU and then the Wolfpack finishes up with Maryland. There is no Miami, no Virginia Tech and no Georgia Tech on the schedule so like Syracuse, the Wolfpack lucked out a bit with their Coastal opponents as they only play only one of the top four. Vegas has the win total for the Wolfpack set at 6.5 and that feels just about right.

Prediction: 7-5

Previous 2013 Pre-Season Previews: