2013 Pre-Season Preview: Clemson Tigers

2012 Record: 11-2 (7-1 in ACC)

Head Coach: Dabo Swinney (40-21 at Clemson, 26-11 in ACC)

Last Two Years: 21-6 overall, 13-3 in ACC

Last Bowl Game: 2013 Chick-fil-A Bowl beat LSU 25-24

Stadium: Memorial Stadium in Clemson, SC (capacity = 81,500)

Home Field Advantage: ranked 12th out of 69 BCS teams

Schedule Glimpse:

2013 Schedule Link

Out of Conference: 8/31 vs Georgia, 9/7 vs South Carolina State, 11/23 vs The Citadel, 11/30 at South Carolina

Toughest Home Games: 10/19 vs FSU, 11/14 vs Georgia Tech

Toughest Road Games: 10/5 at Syracuse, 10/26 at Maryland

Statistical Snapshot:

2012 Statistics Link

Stats to Fear: allowed 31 sacks in 2012 (9th in ACC), allowed 69 plays of 20 or more yards in 2012 (11th in ACC)

Stats to Cheer: converted 51.22% of third downs (1st in ACC), scored on 94.92% of trips to red zone (1st in ACC)

Advanced Stats (Football Outsiders 2012 FEI Ranking): 25th out of 124 teams

Personnel:

Phil Steele's Returning Starters: Offense: 6, Defense: 6, Special Teams: 1

Key Defensive Returnees: LB Stephone Anthony (63 tackles), LB Spencer Shuey (70 tackles), S Travis Blanks (49 tackles)

Key Offensive Returnees: QB Tajh Boyd (3896 yds pass, 67.2% completions, 36 TD, 13 INT), RB Roderick McDowell (450 yds rush, 5.4 ypc, 5 TD), WR Sammy Watkins (57 rec, 3 TD), WR Adam Humphries (41 rec), WR Charone Peake (25 rec)

Top 2013 Recruits: CB MacKensie Alexander, LB Dorian O'Daniel, OG Tyrone Crowder, RB Tyshon Dye, LB Wayne Gallman

Inside Scoop with Ryan Kantor of Sports-Kings.com:

CFBZ: Clemson has a lot of weapons on offense but they do lose Andre Ellington. Who will replace him?

Ryan Kantor: I’m actually more concerned about losing Brandon Ford at TE since Sam Cooper, who was slated to fill the void, tore his ACL in the spring game.

To your point though, the Tigers lost their 4th all-time leading rusher when Andre Ellington was drafted by the Arizona Cardinals, but there is plenty of depth behind him. Roderick McDowell will lead a committee of quality RBs. He is a senior and played behind CJ Spiller and then Ellington, really putting in his time. McDowell is a shifty smaller back (5’9”), but added some “good weight” which may be crucial as far as bearing grind with more carries. Coaches said he was the best back in last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl, and I will always remember that Orange Bowl where the game turned on an Andre Ellington goal line fumble.

Behind McDowell, freshman Tyshon Dye, offers the option of a power back. Desmond Howard enters his junior season and has shown flashes, but struggled through injuries. Sophomore Zac Brooks, a taller back, will also be part of the group and says, “I think this is going to be the best corps of running backs Clemson has ever seen.”

CFBZ: Are there any under-the-radar players to watch on this Clemson team?

Ryan Kantor: One guy that is already standing out in camp is WR Martavuis Bryant. He’s tall (6’5”), fast (unofficial sub-4.30 40 yard dash), and has an opportunity to fill the void DeAndre Hopkins’ departure has created.

He always had the talent (30.5 yards per catch last season), but was never fully committed. Dabo suspended him for the Chick-fil-A Bowl after he skipped study hall and otherwise neglected his academic obligations. It seems to have served as a wake-up call.

Chatter coming out of camp is that he has worked especially hard this offseason, built up his rapport with QB Tajh Boyd, and it’s already showing. Coaches have moved him over to the boundary position after just a few days of camp broke. That’s DeAndre Hopkins’ old spot. Big things are in store.

CFBZ: What do you see as the biggest weaknesses/opportunities for Clemson heading into the 2013 season?

Ryan Kantor: I think it’s a given that the defense is the biggest area of concern. Sure, TE could be a weak spot, but the plethora of talented wide receivers should, in part, hide that blemish.

Last year was Brent Venables’ inaugural campaign as Clemson defensive coordinator. His defense allowed 24.8 points per game, a few down from the year before. The front seven should be stout as most of the starters return. This is a blessing to be sure, as they often had trouble getting pressure on opposing QBs. This problem seemed to dissipate as the season continued, most notably against LSU. Clemson had six sacks against the Bayou Bengals in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

The area where I think most Clemson followers are most concerned is the secondary. They allowed 240.2 passing yards per game last season, a regression from 2011 (224.5 YPG). While more pressure from the front seven will of course help, safeties Jonathan Meeks and Rashard Hall are gone. The Tigers don’t have anybody on roster that has played significant time at safety. That’s a scary thought.

On the bright side, Travis Blanks will move to his natural position—scooting back to safety—and by all accounts is a “star in the making”. He is joined by Free Safety Robert Smith who has mostly served on special teams up to this point—his junior season. Cornerbacks were hounded by injuries last season, but Martin Jenkins and Bashaud Breeland are back after missing time last season.

The X-factor is 5-star recruit (ESPN) MacKensie Alexander. If he can come in and make a significant contribution, Jenkins and Breeland can stay healthy, and the front seven can generate more pressure, maybe it won’t be so bad.

CFBZ: What will make the 2013 season a success in your eyes?

Ryan Kantor: This is actually a topic I wrote on not too long ago. Given the huge bowl victory and the tremendous match-up with UGA to start the season, expectations have swelled a little out of control.

For years, the goal for the program was simple and straight forward—win the ACC Championship. Clemson accomplished that in 2011 by beating Virginia Tech in Charlotte. Of course, they were also beaten pretty soundly by West Virginia in the Orange Bowl. I, and I think many other Clemson fans, upped the goal after clearing the ACC Championship hurdle.

If the Tigers can win a BCS Bowl, this year is a success. (I am considering losing in the National Title Game a step above winning a lesser BCS Bowl.) Many in-state fans would add that we have to beat South Carolina along the way for the season to be a success.

Verdict:

With the addition of Chad Morris in 2011 and Brent Venables in 2012, Dabo Swinney's Tigers continue to move forward. The last two years have been the best seasons the Tigers have had under Swinney and the Tigers have gotten better each season with the exception of 2010. Can the Tigers take the next step in 2013 and move to the 12 or 13 win total?

Last year, Clemson ranked sixth in the Nation in points scored and ninth in total offense. They were fifth in the country in third down conversions and first in scoring in the red zone (13th in scoring TDs in the red zone). They also ranked 13th in plays of ten yards or more and fourth in plays of twenty yards or more. The offense is by far the strength of this team and that won't change this season. Tajh Boyd returns at QB for his senior season and he should be a legit Heisman candidate. As mentioned earlier, they lose their best RB in Andre Ellington (1,000 yard rusher for last two years). At WR, they also lose their biggest play-maker in Nuke Hopkins. He had 18 TD receptions last year and that will be hard to replace. The Tigers hope Sammy Watkins can re-emerge out of the shadows of Nuke and get back to his freshman production when he had 83 receptions (6.4/game) and 12 TDs. He didn't have a bad year last season but he wasn't as explosive due to some injuries. Overall, receiver should be a strength but Charone Peake or Martavis Bryant stepping up would certainly help. The line should be a strength as they return four players with double-digit starts. They do lose center Dalton Freeman and that's a concern but if they can find a solid replacement for him this will be a good unit.

Under Brent Venables, the defense improved from tenth in scoring defense in the ACC to third. They improved on third downs and in the red zone but they still gave up a lot of big plays. The DL returns just about everyone of note losing only their second leading sacker (Malliciah Goodman who had 7). The LB unit must replace their leading tackler, Jonathan Willard, but for the most part the key parts are there. The secondary loses their top three players and as Ryan mentioned in the Q&A, is a big concern.

Clemson plays three extremely tough games this year that should all be against top ten opponents (vs Georgia on 8/31, vs FSU on 10/19 and at South Carolina on 11/30). In the last two years, Dabo's best years at Clemson, the Tigers have gone just 1-3 against FSU and South Carolina winning their home game two years ago against FSU. They haven't beaten South Carolina since 2008 and honestly it hasn't been all that close. If you take those three games out of the equation it's tough to pick out Clemson's toughest game. Is it at NC State? at Syracuse? at Maryland? home versus Georgia Tech? It's a really soft schedule with the exception of those three bears. My head tells me Clemson beats FSU at home but loses the two SEC games although I wouldn't be shocked if Clemson wins all three of those big games but loses to a lesser opponent. It really comes down to that Clemson/FSU game and the winner will be BCS bound.

Prediction: 10-2

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