Last week was a good week here on the blog if you decided to take my advice on any picks. I went 7-0 against the spread with one push (Louisville hit the point spread of 14 on the nose). That brings me up to 22-10 on the year ATS and 28-5 in straight-up picks. Can I keep the momentum this week?
Vanderbilt (1-2) at UMass (0-3)
Noon EST, ESPNews
Line: Vandy by 32
Note: So far this season I am 2-1 in my Vandy selections both ATS and straight up.
Vanderbilt has been a tough-luck team so far this year as they have had the misfortune of playing two teams currently ranked in the top 25 but they only lost to those two teams by a combined 14 points. UMass has lost to Wisconsin by 45, Maine by 10 and Kansas State by 30.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 45 UMass 10
North Texas (2-1) at Georgia (1-1)
12:21 PM EST, ESPN3
Line: Georgia by 33
Georgia has been my prediction kryptonite this season as I am 0-2 in picking games involving the Bulldogs, both ATS and straight up. When Georgia plays lesser opponents like UNT, they tend to let their opponents hang around for a half and sometimes more. For that reason my gut tells me that Georgia wins by around four TDs so I should take UNT and the points. Since my gut is 0-2 with Georgia this year I will go the opposite way.
Prediction: Georgia 48 UNT 14
Tennessee (2-1) at Florida (1-1)
3:30 PM EST, CBS
Line: Florida by 16.5
Note: So far this year I am 3-0 in picking games involving Tennessee (ATS and straight up). I am 1-1 in Florida games (both ATS and straight up).
Florida took last week off to lick their wounds after a very poor offensive performance against Miami. Tennessee went out West and got ran out of Autzen by Oregon. An interesting storyline in this game is that the Tennessee QB might not be named until game time.
Click here to read my Early Analysis on this game.
I really like Florida to win this game, but I don't like them to do it by 17 points.
Prediction: Florida 28 Tennessee 17
Arkansas (3-0) at Rutgers (2-1)
3:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Rutgers by 1.5
Note: I am 3-0 picking Arkansas straight up but just 1-2 ATS
These two teams played last year but that Arkansas team was a little bit worse than this version and that Rutgers team appears to be a little bit better. Rutgers lost a thriller in week one at Fresno State and since then they've beaten Norfolk State and EMU. Arkansas has beaten Louisiana, Samford and Southern Miss so far. Based on those results both of these two teams are huge question-marks heading into week four. Arkansas QB Brandon Allen is still in doubt for the game. In the case where we really don't know a lot about these two teams, I will go with the home team.
Rutgers 28 Arkansas 24
7 PM EST, ESPNU
Line: A&M by 28.5
Note: So far this year I am 3-0 in picking A&M games (both ATS and straight up)
Texas A&M showed a lot of heart in their loss to Alabama so there is the threat of a letdown here against June Jones and the Mustangs. But I'm not sure that this Aggies squad is that type of team. I think the Aggies come out and score points in bunches. SMU will get theirs too but I will take the Aggies and the points in this one.
Prediction: Texas A&M 55 SMU 24
Colorado St (1-2) at Alabama (2-0)
7 PM EST, ESPN2
Line: Bama by 39.5
Note: So far this year I am 2-0 in picking Alabama games (ATS and straight up)
Alabama played a tough game against the Aggies last week and had been emotionally invested in that game for quite a while. Like in A&M/SMU there is certainly a possibility of a letdown here or at least of Saban getting a big lead early and not wanting to rub it in on his former OC, Jim McElwain, who is now the head coach at Colorado State. Alabama will have it's way in this game but I don't think they cover.
Prediction: Alabama 42 Colorado State 7
Troy (2-1) at Mississippi State (1-2)
7:30 PM EST, ESPN3
Line: Miss State by 14
Note: So far this year I am 3-0 in straight up picks for Miss State and 2-1 ATS.
In 2013, Troy has rolled over Savannah State, held on to beat UAB in OT and lost to Arkansas State. Mississippi State has gotten off to a slow start. Usually State front loads their schedule with cupcakes but this year they have played a tougher schedule and they have paid for it. Troy's offense is very capable of putting up points and the Miss State offense has struggled this season so this is a tough one to predict. I think Troy will hang around with the Bulldogs but Miss State will pull away late.
Prediction: Mississippi State 34 Troy 24
7:45 PM EST, ESPN
Line: LSU by 17
Note: I am 3-0 this season in picking Auburn (both straight up and ATS) and I am 3-0 in picking LSU straight up and 2-1 ATS.
Click here to read my Early Analysis of this game.
LSU will win this game because they are simply better in the trenches and Auburn just isn't ready to win a big game at night on the road (yet). The big question is if LSU's new found offense can beat Auburn by enough to cover the spread. The game was in Auburn last year but LSU only beat a repugnantly bad Auburn team by 2 points. My bet is that this game will be around a 10 point game for the majority with LSU winning a fairly close game.
Prediction: LSU 31 Auburn 20
Missouri (2-0) at Indiana (2-1)
8 PM EST, BTN
Line: Indiana by 1
Note: So far I am 2-0 in picking straight up and 1-1 ATS for Mizzou.
This is a really interesting game because this is not your daddy's Indiana. It's Kevin Wilson's. The Hoosiers are 2-1 this year with their loss coming at the hands of the Naval Academy. Missouri is 2-0 with their toughest win being a 15 point win over Toledo. This game could go either way. I'll go with Mizzou in this one but it's not one I would bet on if I was you.
Prediction: Missouri 35 Indiana 31
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