In week three I went 8-0 in straight up picks and 7-0 against the spread (with one push). I didn't think there would be much of a chance to duplicate that but I still had a nice week in week four going 9-0 in straight up picks and 6-3 against the spread. For the year, that brings me to 37-5 (88%) in straight up picks and 28-13 (68%) against the spread. This week is highlighted by Georgia/LSU and Alabama/Ole Miss. Let's get to the picks….
South Carolina (2-1) at UCF (3-0)
Noon PM EST, ABC
Line: South Carolina by 7
Note: so far this season I am 2-1 in picking South Carolina games both straight up and against the spread.
This is an interesting game. South Carolina is coming off of a bye week after losing at Georgia and beating Vandy. UCF is also coming off of a bye week and when they were last seen they went up to Happy Valley and beat the Nittany Lions by 3. So far this season the Gamecocks have on average played right at the point spread (-.08 for the season). I think this is going to be a tight game and if either team has trouble holding onto the football that could swing the game. Overall, I like South Carolina in this game.
To read more on this game you can go to the Crystal Ball Run staff picks as I highlight this game and I will still with my pick from that site…
Prediction: South Carolina 28 UCF 17
South Alabama (2-1) at Tennessee (2-2)
12:21 PM EST, SEC TV
Line: Vols by 18.5
Note: so far I am 4-0 in picking Tennessee game so far this year straight up and against the spread
The Vols are coming off of back-to-back games in which they've been embarrassed. The USA game looks like a time for the Vols to get right and take out some of their frustrations. Both of these two teams have played close to the spread this season (USA at +1.8 and Tennessee at -0.2). I like the Vols in this game to win and to cover.
Prediction: Tennessee 42 South Alabama 21
LSU (4-0, 1-0) at Georgia (2-1, 1-0)
3:30 PM EST, CBS
Line: Georgia by 3
Note: so far this year I am 0-3 picking Georgia ATS and 1-2 straight up. I am 4-0 picking LSU games straight up and 3-1 ATS.
The three point point-spread feels right in this game as that signals pretty much an even game and gives Georgia the advantage because they are playing at home. Last week, LSU's offense really impressed me. Specifically, the receivers and how they made plays for the Tigers. What didn't impress me was that the Tigers didn't show killer instinct and let Auburn back in the game and also let Nick Marshall pick them apart late down the field. I think this LSU defense is going to be one that Todd Gurley will be able to make plays against and Aaron Murray will also have success against down field. Georgia comes into this game as the sixth leading offense (in terms of total offense) in the Nation and that comes with Georgia having already played two top ten teams. This will be a close game but I think Georgia will outscore LSU. On the Crystal Ball Run site, I picked Georgia 30-28 but I think I'm going to open it up a bit here for my "official" prediction. I stick with the Dawgs but say it will be 38-31.
To read more of my "analysis" on this game click here.
Georgia 38 LSU 31
Ole MIss (3-0, 1-0) at Alabama (3-0, 1-0)
6:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Bama by 14.5
Note: So far this year I am 3-0 in picking Alabama straight up and ATS. I am 2-1 picking Ole Miss ATS and straight up.
Out of all the games this week, this is probably the one that I feel like I haven't the least feel for. I like Alabama, mainly because they are Alabama and they are playing at home. Ole Miss is a talented team but man on man they simply don't match-up with Bama. But, we saw what Texas A&M did to Bama in Tuscaloosa last year and we've seen recently how A&M and Georgia have really given the Bama defense trouble. Ole Miss could definitely hang around in this game and 14.5 is a lot of points so I'll take Bama to win but Ole Miss to cover (again, a little different from my Crystal Ball Run picks now that I've had a chance to really think about it for a bit).
Prediction: Alabama 38 Ole Miss 28
Texas A&M (3-1, 0-1) at Arkansas (3-1)
7 PM, ESPN2
Line: A&M by 14.5
Note: I am 4-0 picking Arkansas straight up and 2-2 ATS. I am 4-0 in picking A&M both straight up and ATS.
I really like A&M in this game despite it being on the road. Arkansas QB Brandon Allen's status is up in the air and the point spread has just recently been posted. I just don't see how the Razorbacks will keep up with the Aggies. This is a game where Bielema and his crew will take their lumps in this rebuilding season.
Prediction: Texas A&M 41 Arkansas 17
Florida (2-1, 1-0) at Kentucky (1-2)
7 PM EST, ESPNU
Line: Florida by 12
Note: So far this year I am 2-1 picking Florida straight up and ATS. I am 1-1 picking Kentucky straight up and ATS (they had a push against Louisville).
This past week Florida lost Jeff Driskel and Dominique Easley for the season. Back-up QB Tyler Murphy played well against the Vols but that was without all week to think about it and it was at home. Kentucky also started to play a bit of defense against Louisville in their last game. Kentucky has also had a week off to game plan for this game. Kentucky and Florida are the two lowest scoring offenses in the SEC so if there is one thing to bet on it's that this will be a low scoring game and it will be somewhat close. I think Florida wins fairly easily but Kentucky hangs around despite never really being in jeopardy of upsetting Florida.
Prediction: Florida 21 Kentucky 10
Arkansas State (2-2) at Missouri (3-0)
7:30 PM EST, CSS
Line: Mizzou by 21.5
Note: So far I am 3-0 picking Mizzou straight up and 2-1 ATS.
If you asked me before the season started, this is one that I would have thought could have upset potential. But, Arkansas State's four coaches in four years and the loss of QB Ryan Aplin seem to have caught up to them and Mizzou is quietly playing some pretty good football right now. Take Mizzou (averaging +7 points over the spread so far this season and Arky State is averaging -4.6) and take the points.
Prediction: Missouri 48 Arkansas State 20
UAB (1-2) at Vanderbilt (2-2)
7:30 PM EST, Fox Sports South
Line: Vandy by 20
Last and pretty much least, it's Vandy and UAB. Vandy has actually been the worst team ATS so far this year averaging -6.1 points per game (while UAB has played right to the spread on average). But, Vandy has had some really tough games as they've played both Ole Miss and South Carolina early. Vandy was disappointing last week on the road against UMass and I love Vandy to win this but I think you have to play the odds in this game and expect Vandy not to cover.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 31 UAB 14
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