SEC Football: Week four predictions

So far this year I am 29-3 in straight up picks and 16-13 against the spread. Let’s jump into this weeks picks…

Thursday Sept 18th

#5 Auburn (2-0) at #20 Kansas State (2-0), 7:30 PM, ESPN

Line: Auburn by 8.5

This is a really intriguing game but you have to wonder if Kansas State will be up to the task. The only thing we have to look at this season for the Wildcats is a four point win at Iowa State. The Wildcats need to get out in front of Auburn as they can play with the lead whereas I think they will struggle mightily if they have to play behind a powerful offense team like Auburn. I expect this to be a battle for three quarters but Auburn will pull away in the final stanza.

Prediction: Auburn 31 Kansas State 21

Saturday Sept 20th

Troy (0-3) at #13 Georgia, Noon, SEC Network

Line: Georgia by 41

Will Georgia come out fired up and wanting to prove something after their loss to South Carolina or will they be licking their wounds? 41 points is an awful lot of points for a team that generally doesn’t run up the score. Take the points.

Prediction: Georgia 48 Troy 10

#6 Texas A&M (3-0) at SMU (0-2), 3:30 PM, ABC, ESPN2

Line: A&M by 35

SMU is an absolute mess but will they benefit from the departure of June Jones? My gut feeling tells me that the Mustangs will cover at home after a bye week…but not by much.

Prediction: A&M 49 SMU 17

Florida (2-0) at #3 Alabama (3-0), 3:30 PM, CBS

Line: Bama by 14.5

I still have that “show me” feeling when it comes to Florida. They seem to have more offensive weapons then they did last season but after their first half performance against Kentucky, and the fact that they might have only won because of a mistake by the officials, I will take Bama.

Prediction: Alabama 28 Florida 10

Indiana (1-1) at #18 Missouri (3-0), 4 PM, SEC Network

Line: Mizzou by 13

Missouri continues their out of conference run against decidedly mediocre teams and this might be the most mediocre team they’ve played yet. Missouri just came off of a 28 point win against UCF so this point spread feels really low. I’m all in on Mizzou for this game.

Prediction: Missouri 38 Indiana 17

NIU (3-0) at Arkansas (2-1), 7 PM, ESPNU

Line: Arkansas by 14

This is a very intriguing match-up as the Huskies offense (ranked 8th Nationally in rushing) will test the Razorbacks. But, and maybe I’m getting a little ahead of myself, the Razorbacks really look like they are coming together. Arkansas is averaging 362 yards rushing per game (3rd in the Nation) and if they can continue to mash the football without being forced to pass then they should cruise in this game and I don’t see NIU being able to force them to throw. I do think the Huskies will keep it close because of their offense but unless they can make Brandon Allen try to beat them then the Hogs will win this one going away.

Prediction: Arkansas 38 NIU 21

Mississippi State (3-0) at #8 LSU (3-0), 7 PM, ESPN

Line: LSU by 9.5

Dan Mullen is 0-5 against Les Miles and the last two losses have been over 20 points. Until Mississippi State wins this game, you have to take LSU…especially at home.

Prediction: LSU 27 Mississippi State 17

#14 South Carolina (2-1) at Vanderbilt (1-2), 7:30 PM, SEC Network

Line: South Carolina by 22

Which Gamecocks team will show up and is Vanderbilt so bad that it doesn’t matter? Based on what we’ve seen so far this year, you have to bet against Vandy.

Prediction: South Carolina 45 Vanderbilt 14