Pitching To Decide Series

We all know that good pitching stops good hitting. We also all know that the Yankees have the most powerful offense in the major leagues this year, and while their pitching leaves much to be desired, the pitching matchups in Yankee Stadium bear one thing out: Sox pitchers have to be on their game this series, or we’re going to lose the series, perhaps even be swept.
GAME ONE
Josh Beckett v. Randy Johnson
Josh Beckett is 3-1 with a 4.86 ERA, 23 K, 16 BB, 1.30 WHIP.
Randy Johnson is 5-2 with a 5.02 ERA, 29 K, 9 BB, 1.16 WHIP.
Looking at the strikeouts, the walks, the WHIP … Randy Johnson right now is the better pitcher than Beckett. Beckett’s last three starts haven’t been what we were used to when he started off in Boston. Starting April 21, when he was pitching dominantly only to cough up runs late in the game and caused the team to lose in extra innings, he’s 0-1 in 16 IP, with a 9.56 ERA, 6.19 K/9, 5.62 BB/9, to post the second-worst ERA in the majors since then (Carlos Silva of MIN at 9.98).
Fortunately, Johnson isn’t without his struggles, either. He’s 3-0 over the same period, 19.2 IP, 5.49 ERA, 5.03 K/9, 3.20 BB/9 … but when your own pitcher has posted a 9.56 ERA against a 5.49 ERA, it’s like John Wasdin going up against Pedro Martinez. It’s asking a lot of Beckett to revert to form in Yankee Stadium against a powerful offense after his struggles, but if he doesn’t do it, this game isn’t going to be won by the good guys.
GAME TWO
Curt Schilling v. Mike Mussina
Curt Schilling is 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA, 45 K, 7 BB, 0.99 WHIP.
Mike Mussina is 5-1 with a 2.35 ERA, 42 K, 8 BB, 0.98 WHIP.
Wow. Just … wow. Two pitchers not expected to contribute at all in 2006, they’re the aces of their staff and this is heading out to be a marquee matchup. Kind of funny that the last two bigname pitchers acquired by each team are doing battle Tuesday in a match-up of “Who do lousy and still win?” but the pitchers who struggled so much in 2005 are in the marquee matchup. Schilling is going to have to put up a lot of zeros against a team that he has a career 4.54 ERA against, while Mussina’s career ERA against the Sox is 3.38 ERA.
Sure, our offense showed up against Baltimore, but we have an 11-game winning streak against Baltimore, and we’ve been pounding them lately. We haven’t really been pounding any other team yet, so I’m not ready to anoint their offensive struggles as having been over, especially when Coco Crisp is still conspiciously absent from the lineup, although Wily Mo Pena has been incredible recently. (Say, can we teach Pena short? Is that doable? It’d really help our offense out.)
GAME THREE
Tim Wakefield v. Shawn Chacon
Tim Wakefield is 2-4 with a 3.97 ERA, 23 K, 16 BB, 1.26 WHIP.
Shawn Chacon is 4-1 with a 3.94 ERA, 23 K, 14 BB, 1.44 WHIP.
Another battle of similar statistics! You wouldn’t know it if you hadn’t heard of Mirabelli being traded, but if someone looked at only statistics online, there really isn’t much difference in Wakefield’s stats with Mirabelli and with Bard, but the passed balls really change things. The bottom line, the statistics, have stayed pretty steady all year except for his first start. Given his newfound reputation as a Yankee killer, he should throw some good numbers against the Yankees, who, by the way, figure to be without Gary Sheffield.
Chacon’s career v. Boston amounts to 4 games, one started, with a 12.71 ERA which bodes well for Boston, but in his last three starts, he’s pitched 7, 6.1, 6.1 IP with one earned run in each, going up against BAL, TAM, and TEX. This is easily the best shot, I think, Boston has of blowing the Yankees out.
The pitching matchups going into New York are pretty even across the board, both in cumulative statistics and recent success. This could mean that offense will win the games, which gives a clear win to the Yankees, but I don’t think so. Without Gary Sheffield, the Yankees offense is thinner. The Boston offense may not set the world on fire, but it is definitely an offense I’m now comfortable with. In addition …
Good pitching always beats good hitting.
It’s just a matter of which team’s pitching will be good.