A Japanese Pitcher and a Catchin

HIROTOSHI ISHII / MLB.COM

The recent Strike Zone article piqued my interest because not only did it predict Randy Wolf (and in a later article, Julio Lugo and Craig Wilson) to become a Boston Red Sox for the 2007 season, it also predicted Hirotoshi Ishii to do so.
Here’s what Mr. Puliot of Rotoworld said:

Hirotoshi Ishii (Japan) – The Red Sox were among the teams hoping for a crack at Ishii last year, and there have been reports that the Yakult Swallows are considering posting their lefty closer this winter. The soon-to-be 29-year-old Ishii has missed three months this season with a shoulder injury, making him less attractive than he was a year ago. Still, the scarcity of free agent relievers means he would be in demand if he becomes available. He had a 1.95 ERA and 91 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings in 2005. Prediction: Red Sox – two years, $8 million

Ishii, a lefthander, has repeatedly been asked to be posted, but the Swallows have resisted. Apparently, the Swallows have agreed to post Ishii this following year. This is good news for the Red Sox, because his history in Japan baseball is quite dazzling.

After struggling as a 19-year old in 1996 through 1999, Ishii started figuring things out in 2000. As you can see from the chart to your immediate left, Ishii has become flatout dominating after two good years in 2000 and 2001. The years of 2002 through 2005 are mouthwatering. Please notice the number of strikeouts and innings!
Ishii became the fulltime closer in 2005 and notched 35 saves. He is currently 6 for 11 through August 20th with a 4.35 ERA. This is not a downturn in effectiveness, but rather has been battling a shoulder injury all year.
I did some research on Ishii’s injury, and I was unable to find any specifics, other than sobering news that as of June 12th, it was not getting better. (A lot changes in two months though, so don’t take this as concrete fact.) What I find interesting about this shoulder injury is that it comes in the year that Ishii pitched in the inaugural World Baseball Classic.
Interesting. I think we’re onto something here when we talk about pitchers and the World Baseball Classic. It seems to have benefited hitters, but pitchers would very much like to disagree.
With his injury, ineffectiveness, and questionable command of money should he migrate over to the Major Leagues, it is entirely possible the 29-year old could elect to stay in Japan and build up his value again.
It is also entirely possible he elects to be posted, and is a major leaguer in short order. This is why this situation bears watching, because the Red Sox were interested in Ishii prior to the 2006 season and certainly would be interested again. A fireballing lefthander sounds nice. There is no World Baseball Classic next year for Ishii to worry about, and if the Red Sox do their extensive injury history (anyone else think Josh Beckett is still an injury risk?) research as they usually do, and Ishii checks out, then by all means, let’s grab him.
The bullpen needs an overhaul, new faces, new roles. A fireballing lefty from Japan would change that. While it would probably mark the end of Craig Breslow (sadly) in Boston, it’s a risk worth taking. (While we’re on the topic of Breslow, I really, really hope the Red Sox take an extended look at him in September. He’s quality, and I’m staggered by the fact he has not had extended innings this year for the Red Sox yet. What are we missing?)

GEORGE KOTTARAS / MINORLEAGUEBASEBALL.COM

Someone Hirotoshi Ishii may be pitching to next year is catcher George Kottaras, who is allegedly heading to Boston in the David Wells trade. He will either become a member shortly if he clears waivers, as he is on the 40-man roster. If not, he will become a member after the season concludes.
Kottaras, who played in the 2006 Futures Team, is one of San Diego’s top prospects. (Baseball America ranked him second in the organization in the beginning of 2006, and as a whole, the organization ranks San Diego 29th.) Kottaras, who bats lefty, has split time between AA and AAA, exhibits a solid on-base percentage, but the AAA level has so far proved to be his undoing.
For AA Mobile, he was hitting .276/.394/451 in 257 AB. He was promoted to AAA, where the 23-year old has hit .224/.291/.383 in 107 AB. With a reputation as a gifted defenseman, this is a nice return, considering most catchers tend to develop late. Rare is it that a star steps in at catcher and immediately produces, which is why Joe Mauer is a marvel.
Kottaras was drafted in the 20th round in 2002, and began his professonal season in 2003 for Rookie Ball, hitting .259/.348/.476 in 143 AB. Moving up to Low-A Fort Wayne in 2004, he then hit .310/.415/.461, putting him on the map. 2005 saw him start at advanced A Lake Elsinore, where he hit .303/.390/.469 in 337 AB. He got the jump to AA and logged 101 at-bats with a line of .287/.397/.416.
Given his history, the 23-year old may need another full year of Triple-A to combat his sudden difficulty hitting pitchers. After the 2005 season, Baseball Prospected projected Kottaras to have a 70% chance of being ‘fringe’ (backup catcher) in the major leagues in 2006, but trending downwards to 40% by 2010. His 2006 forecast in the major leagues was to hit .245/.323/.388.
This is not a bad line for a 22-year old who had yet to taste Triple-A. With Kottaras maturing and developing, I can easily see him as a backup catcher in the major leagues. If he ever gets a whiff of being able to maintain a batting average in the majors with occasional pop, he’s definitely a starting catcher on a below-average team, making him a good backup on the Red Sox. This is a bit conservative, as Baseball America says he could eventually hit 15-20 HRs with good line-drive power. Dayn Perry of Fox Sports ranked him the 77th overall prospect in the minor leagues.
I would not be surprised to see Kottaras be the first option up from the minor leagues in 2007 should anything happen to Jason Varitek (and Doug Mirabelli, who will presumably be retained). I would also not be surprised to see Kottaras take over the knuckleballing duties fulltime in 2008. The Red Sox will have knuckleballer Charlie Zink around Pawtucket, where Kottaras can whet his teeth on. The Red Sox may also want to consider inking former major leaguer Jared Fernandez (who has had 6.1 IP to date with the Brewers over the course of 2006) to add another knuckleballer to Pawtucket’s staff to enhance the teaching of Kottaras.
Either way, netting an organization’s #2 prospect for a 43-year old set to retire at the end of the year who has contributed only four excellent starts to a fading team is a coup. (This is taking away nothing from David Wells. My respect and admiration for him is tremendous, and he is going to carry the Padres past the Dodgers.) The fact that he’s a catcher is even better, as he immediately becomes the top catching prospect behind Mark Wagner, Jon Egan, and Luis Exposito. What was once a barren farm system for organizational catchers is now at the very least, average.
In 2007, do not be surprised to see Hirotoshi Ishii strike out Jason Giambi in a late September showdown with George Kottaras behind the plate.