First and Third

KEVIN YOUKILIS / BOSTON.COM

Kevin Youkilis is on pace for 578 at-bats, which will more than double his total major league at-bats previous to this year. In his first full season, Youkilis has entrenched himself as the leadoff man of choice and his plate discipline ranks him near the top of the majors – he ranks second in pitches per plate appearances in the majors, behind only Bobby Abreu. Youkilis is at 4.41, while Abreu is at 4.47. Youkilis ranks a less impressive 24th in walks per plate appearance (Giambi is second, Abreu third) with .133 walks per plate appearance, but that’s still good for 24th in the major leagues out of a list of 120. (Magglio Ordonez is that #120.)
Youkilis is batting .283/.383/.433. The batting average is good for 14th out of 23 first-basemen (Albert Pujols is first, Giambi is #23). The On-Base Percentage leader is Pujols, Youkilis at ninth, last being Shea Hillenbrand. Slugging Percentage? Ryan Howard holds that advantage, with Todd Walker (he’s now a first-baseman, I guess) being last, with Jeff Conine second to last. And third to last? Kevin Youkilis.
Now, I am by no means intimating that Kevin Youkilis should not start. However, his lack of power, especially at first base, means we have to find our power elsewhere to help offset that. I believe one of our weaknesses this year was just that – we could not offset that. We lost tremendous power in 2006. Mike Lowell started hot, and while he still has a .474 SLG (career .463), how can we offset Johnny Damon to Coco Crisp? 2005 Trot Nixon to 2006 Trot Nixon? Edgar Renteria to Alex Gonzalez? We marginally gained with Mark Loretta from Mark Bellhorn/Tony Graffanino. 2005 Jason Varitek to 2006 Jason Varitek.
It’s easily obvious to all of us that our offense is not as good as it was in 2005. You didn’t need me to tell you that. The exact power numbers? 2006’s .437 SLG (10th) as compared to 2005’s .454 – second in the majors.
Having the major’s 10th best power is a good thing. It means that with Trot Nixon likely moving on in favor of Wily Mo Pena, the offense could rise.
But what about if we trade Manny Ramirez? What if Coco Crisp repeats 2006? Jason Varitek gets older, David Ortiz’s peak season was 2006, Mike Lowell slumps down as he ages, Dustin Pedroia gives us what Mark Loretta did, and we resign Alex Gonzalez?
Just because we’re tenth in the majors in offense does not mean we can stand pat. We could easily slip to 15th or lower next year if we return the exact same team, which brings us to Kevin Youkilis. He’s a fine defender at first and third base, but his power numbers are not befitting a first baseman.
Could his power continue to rise? I’m going to have to be pessimistic about that, as this was his age-27 season and his first season in the majors. He’s likely to finish with the 13 homeruns that he has now, but 15 isn’t out of the question. However, that’s still 15. Best case scenario, we’re looking at 20, tops.
Kevin Youkilis actually holds a one-point advantage in OPS over Mike Lowell, so I have no complaints about Youkilis’ offense – especially as Mike Lowell has to inevitably drift down while Youkilis stays in his prime. However, we’re still missing thump. If we keep Manny next year (which is by no means a sure thing, let’s make that clear right here – I’m assuming we retain Manny. If we don’t, the offensive discrepancy becomes that much more pronounced, because Ortiz and Manny are our offense) we still need to see a bump in the numbers that we’re seeing right now with Lowell and Youkilis.
I read today that Mike Lowell could be a candidate to be traded to the Los Angeles Angels, as the Angels are looking for “center field, first base and third, and they’ll be looking for the types of players they don’t have – disciplined hitters and strong defenders.”
This got me thinking here. If we traded Mike Lowell, we could move Kevin Youkilis back to third base and get a more offensively inclined first baseman to play.
It just so happens that the first-base and third-base market are similar, assuming that Aramis Ramirez does not become a free agent. It would be complete foolishness for the Cubs to allow Aramis to walk. If Aramis does walk, so many teams will be bidding for his services that I doubt the Red Sox could beat out every other single team.
Not to say the market is strong – but there are possibilities out there that don’t exist on the third-base side. The most intriguing possibility is Nomar Garciaparra. I sincerely doubt that he could return, but there’s also Sean Casey (albeit no power) … Dmitri Young (no defense) … but the third base side only has Aubrey Huff as an intriguing option. Unless, of course we shift a shortstop such as Julio Lugo to third base and resign Alex Gonzalez.
Trading Mike Lowell to the Angels or some other team, however, can enable us to shift Youkilis to third and trade for a first baseman. Getting an offensively inclined first baseman is far easier than getting the same at third, the current Golden Era of Third Base notwithstanding.
This is all ifs and conjecture, and it’s easily possible to see Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis entering 2007 as manning the corners again. However, if that’s to happen, we’re going to have to find our offense somewhere else, which leads me to the only other logical conclusion: Julio Lugo for shortstop.
Not upgrading our offense would be a significant mistake. There are other significant mistakes we can make, such as not creating a deep bench which is what we need, but not upgrading the offense could rank as the move we look back and regret and agonize over come September 2007.
Kevin Youkilis’ numbers best profile at third-base, so if we can, we should move him to third. If we can’t, then we need to find offense. Youkilis can be a valued member of this lineup for years to come, but his career at first base is very much questionable.