What the Matsuzaka Acquisition Means

DAISUKE MATSUZAKA / ESPN.COM

Normally I wouldn’t count my chickens before they hatched, but the impending Daisuke Matsuzaka acquisition will change a lot for the Red Sox. The finances they have tied up in Matsuzaka will change how they approach the offseason, which is one reason why we’ll talk about how his acquisition impacts the Red Sox today even though it won’t be announced until 8 PM tonight just where exactly he is ending up (Sports Illustrated confirms, for what it’s worth).
Assuming he ends up in Boston for the reported posting price of $42 million, he will likely sign a contract around five years for $75 million. Scott Boras intends to use the Roy Oswalt contract extension as a nice barometer for talks. Oswalt signed a five year deal for $73 million earlier this year. This means Matsuzaka will count $15 million against the books for 2007, limiting the Red Sox’s financial clout in terms of trying to avoid the luxury tax. The tax is $148 million, and the Red Sox’s payroll is $106 million right now, going off the numbers here. If we want to stay under the luxury tax, and yet create breathing room to take on salary at the July 31st deadline, we should stick to a $140 million payroll.
Ignoring the part of me horrified at the number we’re throwing around, such is the reality of competing in the AL East, so let’s put our feelings aside and focus on what we will have to do with Matsuzaka. With Matsuzaka, that payroll will rise to about $121 million, meaning we have $19 million left to play with.
This is a problem. This is a problem because now we cannot sign J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo and fill our other needs without skyrocketing past the luxury tax threshold. If we sign J.D. Drew, it will be for about $10 million, leaving $9 million left for second base, shortstop, a backup catcher, two bullpen arms (one of which will be costly) and two bench players.
Signing Daisuke Matsuzaka may very well cost us J.D. Drew’s services, as we may opt to retain Wily Mo Pena and pour the money into shortstop (moving Pedroia to second) and the bullpen. We would not have enough money to sign Matsuzaka, Drew AND Lugo, unless we sacrificed some other position or decided to forget about the luxury tax restriction.
A rumor I’ve heard is that the Red Sox have already approached J.D. Drew about a contract (you’re welcome, Theo). If we sign Drew, it’s very possible we could ship Wily Mo Pena elsewhere for a legit bullpen arm. I know that the Padres are looking for a left-fielder with power.
Wily Mo Pena for Scott Linebrink, perhaps? It’s definitely a possibility, but another possibility I’ve heard is Manny Ramirez for Jake Peavy. It’s not discountable, but acquiring Matsuzaka would give us a solid rotation with Jon Lester in the minor leagues and Matt Clement as a backup. Thus, if we were to trade Manny to the Padres, I would ask for Scott Linebrink and other pieces to plug our holes (Terrmel Sledge? Reacquiring Josh Bard?)
Moving Pena for Linebrink would make more sense. While one may think it better to retain Pena because he’s cost efficient, where else would we get a reliever? J.D. Drew and Scott Linebrink in place of Wily Mo Pena and nothing would be a better gain, especially with Linebrink being due only $1.75 in 2007.
We could also trade Mike Lowell, which would free up all $9 million. Lowell could probably be moved without the Red Sox assuming any of his contract after the resurgent year he had, although we wouldn’t get much in return. In that vein, Youkilis would probably move back to third, but then we’re out of a first baseman. The Red Sox have shown zero willingness to have Wily Mo Pena play first, so he’s not an option there as much as we all may want him to be. In addition, we do have an exciting first base prospect. His name is Lars Anderson, and he was drafted out of high school this past draft at the age of 19. Ranked the fifth best prospect in the system, he has big-time power and Baseball America says he could be hitting in the middle of the order as soon as 2009. A 21-year old hitting in the middle of our order in 2009? That’s lofty expectations.
Getting back to the matter at hand, Matsuzaka is an incredible acquisition for the Red Sox, and solves the pitching conundrum easily. He was the most sought after target in free agency, and when it’s officially announced the Red Sox got his rights, the race will be on to sign Matsuzaka to a contract.
A lot of people are saying Matsuzaka may not sign with the Red Sox – that the Red Sox only bid to keep him away from the Yankees. I’m not falling for that. The Padres claimed Randy Myers on waivers to keep him away from a rival. The Yankees did the same for Jose Canseco. It backfired. The Red Sox put in a high bid on Matsuzaka because he’s 26 years old, already one of the greatest Japanese pitchers ever, and because we need him. Period. Does it help that we keep him away from the Yankees? Sure, but to intimate that that’s the principal reason is just silly. We did it because we wanted him.
The Red Sox assumed the risk of letting Damon go to the Yankees, which is what happened. The Red Sox assumed the risk of having Pedro Martinez walk to another team, which is what happened. The Red Sox assumed the risk of letting Bobby Abreu go to the Yankees when they refused to pay an extra $7 million of Abreu’s contract, which is what happened. The Red Sox do what’s best for the team, not what’s best for stopping the Yankees.
With the signing of Matsuzaka, the chances of Drew or Lugo ending up in Boston decrease. We can still afford one of the two, but both? I’m not so sure about that, and if even one of them sparks off a bidding war, we may have to play it conservative. We have a lot of needs to fill, and while Matsuzaka is easily the best pick out of all the possible options out there, it does limit our options after that, if we want to adhere to a $140 million payroll. Even if we are willing to go to $147 million, in baseball that extra seven million can dissapear quickly.
It’s possible we may end up resigning Mark Loretta, Alex Gonzalez, Trot Nixon, and Doug Mirabelli. I very much doubt we resign Nixon, but Mirabelli is a direct possibility, as is Loretta, in my opinion. The Red Sox seem to have realized that they can’t just lie around and wait for their minors to bear fruition and compete with the Yankees. The Red Sox are starting to spend a lot more, and it certainly makes them breathe easier now that the luxury tax threshold is higher. However, the Sox are still a team that attempts to operate in some sort of fiscal sanity. In three to four years, the payroll should dip with the contracts of Curt Schilling, Jason Varitek and Manny Ramirez fully off the books, but then arbitration for our young studs starts.
That’s a discussion for three years down the road, though. Right now, we’ve potentially acquired the jewel of the free agency class, and the Red Sox will now have to tread with caution in terms of money to fill out the remainder of the roster. This offseason has already been rife in unpredictability (did anyone see the Josh Barfield trade happening? It wasn’t even a thought.) and it will continue to be. Free agency and trades aren’t over by a long shot, and Theo still has plenty up his arm.