One Away

Seven months ago, in the middle of March, we sat dreaming of the position we’re now in: one win away from our second World Series title in four years.
All the heartbreaking losses, all the unthinkable gaffes, all the negatives from this season are one win away from disappearing. You know things are going well when even Julio Lugo has a superb night!
The question now is, will Red Sox Nation celebrate tonight?
Jon Lester is on the hill for the Sox, as the story of his remarkable comeback from cancer continues to take amazing turns. Lester has pitched in two games this postseason, tossing 3.2 innings, allowing a pair of runs, walking a batter, and striking out five. He has yet to lose a game in 2007: Lester went 4-0 in his 12 appearances (11 starts) during the regular season, posting a 4.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, while compiling a 50/31 K/BB ratio over 63 innings of work.
Unfortunately for Boston, Coors Field figures to play against Lester (though we said the same thing against Dice-K and things worked out just fine). A fly-ball pitcher who allowed 10 homers in 63 innings, Lester relies heavily on his offspeed, breaking pitches. That does not portend good things in a high-altitude park such as Coors, especially if Lester doesn’t have good control — which he may not, considering that the last time Lester took the mound in a game was way back on October 16th.
Opposing Lester will be sinker-baller Aaron Cook, the Rockies Opening Day starter, who hasn’t pitched since August 10th due to a strained oblique. Himself a survivor of life-threatening medical issues — Cook had blood clots in his lungs — the 28 year-old righthander went 8-7 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.34 WHIP during the regular season, making 25 starts. Cook allowed 178 hits in 166 innings of work, walking 44 batters, while K-ing 61. Despite being a northpaw, Cook is worse against righties (.295 BAA), than he is against lefties (.263). He also tends to struggle at Coors, going 4-5 with a bloated 5.31 ERA there this season, despite allowing only seven of the fifteen homers he surrendered at home.
Needless to say, Game 4 figures to be a high scoring affair. The Red Sox will once again need a strong showing from Tacoby and Dusty, to keep up with a Rockies offense that will be desperate on Sunday night.
For the Rockies, it’s now one game at a time — just as it was for the Sox in the 2004 ALCS. We showed that it can be done; now we need to prove that it can’t be done against us.
Baseball Prospectus now gives the Sox a 96.4 percent chance of winning the series. That’s 3.6 percent too little for the uber-pessimists among us (including yours truly).
Win, and the season’s goal will be achieved. Lose, and there are still three more chances to take home the hardware.
I predicted 9-6 Sox yesterday, and … I was pretty close (which I’m usually not). I’ll take the Rox over the Sox 6-4 tonight, and the Sox to win it in five.
Now go out there and prove me wrong, Jon.
— Daniel Rathman