Final Four Preview: Villanova (2) vs Oklahoma (2)

Final Four Preview: Villanova (2) vs Oklahoma (2)

Line: Nova (-2)

Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)

Time: Saturday at 6:09 PM on TBS (Villanova broadcast on TruTV)

Starters:

Villanova

G- Ryan Arcidiacono (Sr)

G- Jalen Brunson (Fr)

G- Josh Hart (Jr)

F- Kris Jenkins (Jr)

C- Daniel Ochefu (Sr)

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Oklahoma

G- Jordan Woodard (Jr)

G- Isaiah Cousins (Sr)

G- Buddy Hield (Sr)

F- Ryan Spangler (Sr)

F- Khadeem Lattin (So)

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Outlook:

This Final Four matchup will feature the south region champion, Villanova, against the west region champion, Oklahoma, in a rematch of a game from the Pearl Harbor Classic on December 7^th. Oklahoma won that game in convincing fashion, downing the Wildcats 78-55. Oklahoma won that game with an incredible shooting performance from downtown, shooting 14-26 from behind the arc. Still, all hope is not lost for the Wildcats. They didn’t play great in that game, but if not for Oklahoma’s incredible (but probably not replicable) proficiency from deep, the game would have been much closer. Also, both of these teams have grown incredibly from the start of the season. Neither Oklahoma nor Villanova are the same teams they were over 4 months ago. You can take some things away from that game, but you shouldn’t base your prediction solely off of that performance.

Regardless, this will be a hard game for Villanova. Oklahoma is one of the best teams in the country and dominated a really good Oregon team in the west regional final. The Sooners also have the hottest player in college basketball, Buddy Hield. Hield is averaging 29.2 points in the NCAA Tournament while shooting 46.5 percent from three point range. Oklahoma surrounds Hield with other good players and shot makers. Guards Jordan Woodard and Isaiah Cousins both shoot over 40% from deep while averaging more than 4 assists. Ryan Spangler is an incredibly physical forward who can also step outside and make some threes. Lastly, Khadeem Lattin is a good big man who can protect the rim. This Oklahoma team certainly isn’t just some one man show.

Still, slowing down Hield is going to the focal point of Jay Wright’s game plan. The Wildcats have a couple options to defend Hield. The Wildcats can throw both Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges at Hield. Bridges has been outstanding this tournament with his great defense and hustle plays, but I would choose Hart. Bridges has the length and athleticism to cover Hield, but I worry about a young player going up against Buddy. Hield will get a lot of his offense coming off screens and other actions that I’m not sure a young player like Bridges is ready to defend at a high level against the best player in college basketball. Hart is more experienced in this regard and got a chance to guard Hield in their December matchup, which Villanova fans will hope Hart learned from. Lastly, Hield will most likely be guarding Hart on the other end so it makes sense to leave Hart on Hield in order to avoid cross-matches in transition. Hield is great at finding his outside shot in transition, something the Villanova defense struggled against in their games with Miami and Kansas.

Villanova will also have to make Hield to work on the defensive end. That is how teams have been able to slow Buddy down in the past. You need to tire him down on that end and maybe you can even get him into foul trouble. Josh Hart is the type of player who could attack Hield off the dribble. Jay Wright should consider using Hart as a pick and roll ballhandler in order to attack Hield on the defensive end. Hart has the handles and vision to exploit Hield’s defensive weaknesses. In terms of the rest of Villanova’s offense, they have some other advantages. Oklahoma plays two big men, but neither of them is properly equipped to deal Daniel Ochefu. Spangler is a better option than the skinny Lattin, but Lattin would struggle to guard Kris Jenkins. That would also neutralize Oklahoma’s best shot blocker by taking him away from the basket. I also don’t think that Spangler can guard Jenkins out on the perimeter either. Jenkins is a great shooter who uses crafty pump fakes and dribble moves to expose better perimeter defenders than Spangler. Oklahoma head coach Lon Krueger will need to be creative on the defensive end to keep Villanova from exploiting these matchups.

Prediction: Villanova 80, Oklahoma 78

This will be a tough one for Jay Wright’s Wildcats but I think they can win this one based on some of the aforementioned matchup advantages. Josh Hart is the key in this game. Villanova needs him to show up on both ends of the court if they want to stop the red-hot Buddy Hield. Hart really struggled against Kansas. He got into quick foul trouble and then took some ill-advised shots at the end of the game. Villanova was able to win, but they will need Hart to be better if they hope to win. Villanova also really needs to take advantage of their mismatches. Ochefu should be able to score inside if the Wildcats can get him the ball. Jenkins also needs to punish Oklahoma for putting a big man on him by making some outside shots and taking them off the dribble. Oklahoma plays two big men, but I don’t think they have the skill to punish the Cats inside. Villanova has played bigger and more talented teams inside and handled them with team defense so I think they can do the same here. All these things go in Villanova’s favor but Hield is still the best player on the floor. That matters. A great performance from Hield could be all Oklahoma needs to mask some of those deficiencies. This will be a difficult one for Nova, but I think they can advance to Monday’s National Championship.