Something that we often underdiscuss throughout the draft process is the importance of situation. Where a prospect lands and how his team uses him can have a monumental impact on how that player develops. Some teams, like the Spurs, have a knack for picking players that fit their system (or fitting their system to those players) and then developing those players. Other teams around the league do not provide that same infrastructure to prospects, and as a result, some of those players really struggle. Now it’s impossible to know if someone like Kawhi Leonard would have been this great somewhere else due to his overwhelming talent or whether he would have been a marginally effective without the Spurs development program. The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle but the important thing to take away is that situation matters. Teams need to put prospects in good situations. Still, some prospects are more vulnerable to situation than others. These players really need to be put into a great position to succeed. I think Jamal Murray is one of those players.
Murray had an up-and-down season in his lone year at Kentucky. He played a great game against Duke early in the season that led some to believe Murray could have a bright future at the next level as a point guard. However, as the season progressed, Murray really struggled. He was unable to create for himself or his teammates off the dribble. Murray is a crafty ballhandler but his lack of strength and explosiveness really limited him against good defenders. Kentucky really struggled with Murray at the point against good defenses. Some of the luster started to wear off of Murray as a prospect as concerns about his ability to be an effective lead guard became more apparent. Sure Murray could shoot but his athletic limitations were causing him real problems on both ends of the court. If the guy has this many problems in college, how will he be able to do it against better competition at the next level?
Then, Murray turned his season around as Kentucky made a tactical change. The Wildcats were flush with talent at the point guard position. They had Murray, Tyler Ulis and Isaiah Briscoe, all of whom were 5 star recruits. Coach Calipari had an overflow of talent and decided to make a slight adjustment. He started playing Jamal Murray off ball a lot more. It wasn’t a huge move. All three point guards had been playing together a lot and continued to do so. The only difference is that Kentucky decided to let Ulis and Briscoe handle playmaking duties a little bit more. This worked great for Murray who worked more as a spot up downtown shooter and someone who ran off screens to get his shots. Murray finished the season shooting over 40% from the outside on 7.7 attempts from 3 per game. That’s really solid production offball.
Murray was also able to use his size more effectively on defense. Murray stands at 6’5” with a 6’8” wingspan. This size allows him to guard shooting guards as opposed to point guards. Murray just simply is not quick enough to check opposing lead guards well. He’s not a particularly fluid or explosive athlete which allows opposing point guards to expose the Kentucky product. However, at the shooting guard position, Murray is tall enough to guard shooting guards and his lack of quickness shouldn’t be as much of a problem here. It would also help Murray to have versatile defenders around him who can guard multiple positions. If a team can surround him with that, it allows Murray to guard the best possible matchup for him. Still, no matter what, Murray won’t be a great defender at the 2 guard but he also probably won’t hemorrhage points. The difference between being a horrible defender and being a bad defender will be key for Murray. If he is a bad defender, he has a chance to be an impact player. If he is a horrible defender, he becomes unplayable and a waste of a high pick. He will be a horrible defender at the point guard position. He will probably just be a bad defender at the shooting guard position. Now that doesn’t exactly sound like high praise but Murray’s offensive gifts are important to consider when you think about how poor of defense you are willing to accept from the guard.
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Now none of this is to say that playing Murray at the two guard will solve all of his problems. His athleticism is still going to a problem on both ends of the court. His defense will still be something that his team will have to deal with. Murray better hope that he has a solid rim protector behind him to help clean up some of his mistakes. On offense, Murray will be able to create some, but will probably be limited to an off-ball combo guard shooter. The reason I like Murray as a top 5 or 6 pick in this draft is because this draft is particularly weak and I think he can be a super role player. He provides great spacing and some nice off-ball playmaking. Murray won’t be able to run an offense full time but he can run a pick and roll with his combination of passing and shooting. Murray is also really young. He played the entire season as one of the youngest players in college basketball. He reclassified and came to college a year early to play for Kentucky. He still has a lot of room to grow and like most younger players, Murray needs to get into better shape. As he works himself into better physical condition, maybe Murray can show that he’s a better athlete than we project. Murray could be a really versatile offense player as long as you have him in the correct role.
But that’s what it all comes back to- Murray’s situation. He needs to go to a team that will stay away from forcing him to be a point guard. I honestly believe that if any team asks Murray to be their full-time point guard, he will fail miserably. I think he’s probably a bench player in that role, whereas I think he can be a pretty good starter at the shooting guard position. Shooting and offball playmaking are two incredibly important aspects of today’s NBA. If you put Murray next a good point guard and a shot blocking big man behind, he has a chance to be a very solid contributor. Is it a little deflating to select a player with a top 6 pick if he limits your flexibility in terms of roster building? Of course, but that’s just the nature of this year’s draft. Outside of the top few guys, you are probably just going to get a complimentary piece. I think Murray could do well in that role and that some teams in the middle lottery should take a look at the Kentucky guard.
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