Will Manny bounce back?

A line of .296/.388/.493 would be considered a success by most every single baseball player on the planet.
Unless you’re Manny Ramirez.
That line represented his worst statistical line since 1994 at the tender age of 22, a year before becoming a full-time starter.
Manny kicked things off predictably in 2007 with a slow start, hitting only .202/.314/.315 in April before revving up to .327/.393/.577 in May and keeping the status quo (.322/.444/.494) in June. In July he took it to another level, topping a 1.000 OPS in a month for the first time all year hitting .340/.425/.660.
It was all downhill after that.
Manny struggled to a .264/.343/.407 line in August before being sidelined with a sore left oblique that would cost him almost an entire month of playing itme.
On August 26, Manny was rested against the White Sox with a sore back. On the 28th, he was removed from the game in the seventh inning with muscle spasms in the back. The next day, it was revealed Manny had a sore left oblique.
Was Manny’s strained oblique that cost him essentially a month that serious?
More importantly, is the reason behind Manny’s subpar season because he was playing hurt almost the entire year?
He returned from his strained oblique September 25, and finished at .389/.476/.444 in September. In October, he checked in at an astounding .348/.508/.652.
That would certainly lend credence to the theory that Manny sustained his injury in late July or early August and took a huge tumble downward from then on.
Checking Manny’s splits against lefties and righties only serves to cloud the matter further.
Manny had a .344/.478/.617 line against lefties last year, good for a 1.095 OPS. In his career, he checks in with a 1.088 OPS against lefties, so he didn’t lose anything there. What he lost was effectiveness against righties — his 2007 OPS of .801 was a far cry from his career .972. (Ramirez did not face any left-handed starting pitchers from Sept. 25 to the end of the regular season, so he didn’t pad his statistics.)
To try to answer this, I looked at Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA card for Manny. PECOTA’s 50 degree projection had Manny checking in at .300/.404/.574, and the 40th degree projection had .290/.394/.554. The weighted mean — what Manny should have done over the course of the year according to PECOTA — was .297/.400/.567. They weren’t too far off on the average and OBP, but they whiffed completely on slugging percentage. If Manny hadn’t sustained that oblique and hit to his trends for a full body of work in August and September, he may have hit those projections.
However, the fact remains: Manny started slow for the second straight year (his .865 OPS in April 2006 was downright pedestrian compared to the rest of the year) and he didn’t get up to his full body of work until July, and only July matched his career output.
Was it an injury — or the mark of a decline? Baseball Prospectus’ chart for Manny Ramirez shows they expected a decrease in productivity starting in 2007… and if you look at the chart, the projections for future years aren’t any prettier.
Peter Gammons would have us believe that Manny is getting serious about his workout regimen.

Manny rented a house in the Phoenix area and has become a maniacal workout warrior in Tempe Arizona at the Athletes’ Performance Institute (API). From what I’ve heard from people at API, Manny is getting himself into phenomenal shape. And having watched those workouts, I can tell you, they are extremely difficult.

This could be something or nothing. It could mean that Manny is trying to take care of his body better in general now that he is entering the last guaranteed year of his big ticket contract. It could mean that after a season of struggling through various maladies he wants to enter 2008 in perfect shape.
2008 is going to be an important year for Ramirez. Either he reverts to form and puts off questions about his decline until it starts happening (if it hasn’t already) or he puts up 2007-esque contracts and this space next year in the offseason rages on about whether we should pick up his $20 million option year for 2009… or he dips down even more and the Red Sox are suddenly on the market for a power hitter in free agency (Adam Dunn? Mark Teixeira? [Youk to left]).
Who knows why Manny suffered his down season. We won’t know until 2008 is in the books and we can compare the statistics of the two years.
All I know is that a healthy Manny Ramirez who hits with his eyes closed is crucial to the Sox repeating as division champions. For all of 2007, we had great hitters — but not great power hitters. David Ortiz stroked an amazing number of doubles while suffering from well-documented injuries, so he should rebound to his former prowess without a problem.
Will Manny?