Jon Lester has faced and overcome many obstacles in his young career. But on the mound, the one obstacle that has given him fits, and may be the key to his future success, is as simple as strike one.
When Lester went 6 2/3 of scoreless, three hit innings in Oakland in his second start this season, many Red Sox fans thought that he may have turned a corner. This was the Jon Lester that gave management pause to include him in a potential deal for Johan Santana over the off-season.
A closer look at one data point from that outing however paints a different picture of Lester’s development from the struggles of his past than the final outcome would portray. Of the twenty three batters that Jon Lester faced that day in Oakland, he only started eight of them out with first pitch strikes, working from behind a remarkable 65% of the time.
While Lester worked efficiently out of 1-0 counts most of the day, his track record will prove that not to be a sustainable way for Lester to show success. In fact, after reading through the post to follow, I would be surprised if any reader would come away feeling positive about the development of the young left hander so far this young season.
It only makes sense that pitchers that pitch in pitchers counts and stay out of the “hafta” counts (a “hafta” count being a count where a pitcher hafta throw a strike) are more successful at keeping runners off the bases and propelling their teams to victory. How many times have you heard Jerry Remy talk about the importance of not falling behind batters?
For Lester, the numbers paint a pretty dramatic picture. The young left hander has been known to fall behind a batter or two or three or four or – well, you get the picture. Lester would often run so many long counts that he was effectively a five inning pitcher even when he was pitching well. One of the largest contributing factors to Lester’s inability to go deep in games was his inability to get ahead of and/or stay ahead of hitters.
Over the past three seasons Jon Lester has pitched ahead of batters 28.1% of the potential “ahead of” counts (0-1, 0-2, 1-2), behind batters 26.5% of”behind” counts (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1), and even (0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-2) 45.5% of the time. Another way to look at this is that he gets to 0-1 43.4% of the at bats and to 1-0 48.4% of the time.
Compared to league average for 2007, Lester has a penchant for starting in a hole. The average pitcher started 0-1 46.9% of the time vs. 41.2% in a 1-0 hole. Lester is 15% more likely than league average to start a batter with a ball.
So far this season, these numbers are further exacerbated. Half of the batters that Jon Lester has faced this season have started their at bat ahead of Lester with a 1-0 count in their favor. Furthermore, Lester hasn’t been able to rebound as easily only working 19.8% of counts into his favor.
Why is this all so important? Looking quickly at how batters perform against Jon Lester in at bats following an 0-1 count compared to a 1-0 count tells the story pretty succinctly.
Each one of these data points is as alarming as the next. Lester is 12% more hittable following an 1-0 count than an 0-1 count. What really shocked me looking at this data was the comparison of strike outs to walks depending on the first pitch of the at bat.
These numbers are so diametrically opposed, I can’t even think of a ratio that draws a comparison better than the raw data; but I will try. After a 1-0 count, Lester is nearly six times more likely to walk a batter and strikes out 53% less batters than after throwing a first pitch strike.
The net result of all this is that he is 20% less efficient at getting batters out when throwing a first pitch ball than when he gets ahead of a batter with strike one.
I am not really sure that you needed all this statistical backing to prove to you what your eyes show you every time that Lester takes the mound. However, the data presented here paints the extreme to which the outcome of a single pitch each at bat can impact a game and even a career.
Looking back at Lester’s problems, it really only comes down to one pitch each at bat that will dictate his ability to make the next step as the top tier major league hurler that his stuff suggests he has the ability to be; strike one.
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