Perhaps the most perplexing, yet enticing prospect in the Sox system, Bubba Bell is at the stage in his career where performance is everything. There is no projection left. Always known as a hitter with above-average skills all-around, he no longer can point to this fact, and must produce or he’ll remain a career minor leaguer until he’s finally forced to retire. After a breakout season in the wind-tunnel, otherwise known as High-A Lancaster, Bell had many scouts wondering if he had made the necessary adjustments to become a major league regular. But even then, his ultimate ceiling was in question.
He had always been known to have solid, yet unspectacular tools all around. He makes excellent contact, has decent power, solid plate discipline, a tick above average speed, a good glove with decent range, and a plus arm. He can play all outfield positions well, but profiles more as a right fielder because of his stocky build. With his strong work ethic, fundamentally balanced swing, and contact rate, there isn’t much doubt that he could at least serve as an adequate fourth outfielder. So what remains as Bubba’s biggest stepping stone to the major leagues?
After hitting a combined 8 home runs in a total of 523 at-bat’s (1 HR/65 AB’s) during the 2005 and 2006 seasons, Bell hit a power surge by belting 22 HR’s in 322 at-bat’s for Lancaster in 2007 (1 HR/14.6). While playing in a hitter friendly league that certainly played a large role in this, it opened a lot of eyes as it’s very well-known that power is usually the last tool to develop and it’s not unusual for a player at his age to hit the type of power spike he did. His ceiling immediately jumped from a solid 4th outfielder to a decent major league starter for a mid-level team. Bell was promoted shortly after the All-Star break to Double-A Portland. It is fairly universal amongst scouts that the transition from A+ to AA ball is the hardest of all transitions. So while prospect followers were hoping to see that type of power carry with him at the next level, it wasn’t shocking that not all of it did. Bubba displayed decent power in Portland, but in no way did he set the world on fire.
The cynics were quickly pointing to him not playing against age-appropriate competition and for playing in the California League. However, Bell did post a solid .577 slugging percentage away from Clear Channel Stadium (Lancaster’s home field). As I mentioned before, Bubba has something working for him, his swing, and the combination of his contact and K/BB ratios, to never fall to far off the cliff.
Which brings us to last season, where Bell’s performance was well in sync that sums up his career thus far: solid, yet unspectacular, fabricated and cut short due to injuries. His season came to an abrupt end in mid-July when he suffered a stress fracture in his leg that sidelined him the rest of the season. You are well aware of what I mean by fabricated, as his 2007 season in Lancaster played a huge role power-wise, but what about 2008? He’ll have the fact that he’s not playing against age-appropriate competition card playing against him for as long as he’s in the minor leagues. That’s a given. But, there were a couple of other things that bothered me.
Firstly, I mentioned before that the High-A to Double-AA transition is that hardest of all jumps in the minor leagues. I think Bubba found out first hand why this is. His strikeout percentage spiked from a solid 10.4% from 2006-2007 combined to a sub-par 17.2% in 2008. While this is nothing alarming, it make clear his true talent level as far as plate discipline goes. He still walked at an average clip of 10.5% of the time, so I think both of these reflect better on what to expect as he progresses. He has a mechanically smooth enough of a swing that I don’t see him significantly regressing in AAA, and perhaps in the major leagues.
Another thing that interested me was his starters/relievers splits. This type of split, in my opinion, is highly overlooked at the minor league level because starters only throw five, maybe six innings until they are lifted because of a pitch count. This leaves three to four innings that must be filled by relievers. Relievers at the minor league level aren’t typically thought of very highly. The quality ones don’t stick around very long because they are promoted at a quicker level than most players, which leaves guys with mediocre stuff who have good command or guys with the opposite pitching almost half of the game. As an avid follower of the minor leagues for the past few years, I can tell you there aren’t too many relievers with the quality of stuff and command in the league, never mind on one team. Then, you’re seeing hitters get one or two at bat’s a night against these guys. Well, Bubba made a living off relievers, hitting .318/.399/.504. In contrast, he hit a modest .264/.333/.462 against starters. To me, this kind of split is more predicative than a K/BB ratio when determining how a hitter will handle advanced pitching in the future. After coming off a breakout season against inferior pitching in a hitters league, a lot was riding on this season, and I’m not sure Bubba answered the bell (no pun intended).
Bubba will start the season patrolling right field for Triple-A Pawtucket after playing in center field all of last season. He’ll move over for Jon Van Every, who played the position very solidly last season for the PawSox. After filling out in the last couple of seasons, Bell’s stocky frame combined with a very good arm and glove will play just fine in right, and can slide over to center if needed. His ultimate ceiling did not decrease nor did it improve after a solid, yet unimpressive 2008 season. The power will remain his biggest obstacle, and unless he improves, he’s more than likely a 4th outfielder at best. Bubba reminds a lot of Sox fans of former fan favorite Gabe Kapler, who is renowned for his gritty style of play and body-builder frame. To tell you the truth, I would be more than pleased if Bell turned into Kapler, or even Kapler post-2001. He turned 26 over the off-season, so 2009 could very well be his last chance to prove he can hit age-appropriate pitching.
Up Next: My Top 40 Sox Prospects
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