Dice K-slash-BB. Not Dice K-slash-Walk ratio.
Daisuke Matsuzaka is like no pitcher that I have ever seen. Not to this degree. Not this many appearances.
But the entertainment is there. And that is what it is all about when one gets down to it, whether they want to admit it or not.
I would rather watch Daisuke pitch than any other pitcher in the game today. Sure, there are pitchers that are better, that produce better results. But the entertainment that Matsuzaka brings to the table, and the fact that he pitches for the team that I love most, are the reason why I revolve my schedule around him, rather than any of the other pitchers of today.
Matsuzaka and the strike zone are kind of like a human trying to feed a stray cat. The cat is hungry/Daisuke wants to throw strikes. The cat kind of approaches, yet stays away at the same time/Daisuke will come in, but then stay away–and repeat. Eventually, the cat will give in, realizing that it must eat to live/Daisuke will find himself in a compromising position of having runners on, realizing that he must retire batters to end the inning. He must get outs; the primary objective of a pitcher.
The problem is that Daisuke still finds himself staying away from the strike zone. He still puts himself in compromising positions. And luckily, he had success getting out of these predicaments, whether it be luck, or whether it was skill—a skill that no one has ever possessed, it seems.
The 2007 version of Matsuzaka was slightly better than mediocre. He was not worth the posting fee in the first year of his contract (that is if you divide by the total amount of money spent on Matsuzaka ($103 mill/6 years, and come up with roughly $17 million a year). But being slightly above average, ERA+ 108, with a good defense behind him, was enough to earn his base salary of $6 million that season. More than enough. However, his overall performance was less than expected after arriving in the US, after bringing over a status that was not less than “Ace.”
Call it adjustment to a new country, a different way of playing the game, a new and rabid fan base, etc.
And maybe his decline in the second half was in fact fatigue, since he bounced back in 2008.
But again, his 204 innings with an ERA+ of 108 was well worth the $6 million that was spent.
In 2008, Daisuke was significantly better, posting an ERA+ of 159, which is great. But Matsuzaka walked more batters per nine innings, and struck out fewer per nine, than that of his final 2007 rates.
It truly is remarkable. But color me skeptical.
The safe bet for his 2009 performance is to find a nice middle ground. Let us say an ERA+ of 125 or so.
I am not a projection system. My name is not Pecota. That number was simply taken out of my head, a guestimation of Matsuzaka’s ERA+. Do not wager on that number (in a land where people wager on ERA+ numbers).
The BABIP from 2008 is well known among the statisticians. It is probably not sustainable, and it is probably not a skill. It ended up at a very low .267.
Daisuke stranded 80% of the runners that he allowed on base. It is unlikely that number will be duplicated in 2009.
As a matter of fact, that percentage was tops in the AL. Daisuke stranded a greater percentage of baserunners allowed than anyone in the American League.
He led the league in BB/9. But was fourth best in HR/9. Daisuke had the fourth lowest BABIP (probably a bad thing in this case). But he also finished fifth in K/9.
And just for good measure, Dice-K had the 7th lowest percentage of line drives against (18.1%).
Because Matsuzaka will nitpick the strike zone with each and every hitter that he faces, the amount of balls hit well will be low (or at least was last season). Hitters can’t just stand there and wait for a pitch because Matsuzaka’s repertoire is so vast, and because the ball ends up in strange spots much of the time.
So what to expect in 2009?
Let me look at a few actual projection systems (rather than just pulling numbers from my head):
Bill James: A few more innings at 184 total, than the next systems that I will use. A 3.58 ERA. 2.26 K/BB.
CHONE: 169 innings. 3.89 ERA. 2.11 K/BB. The highest ERA of the projections.
Marcel: 164 innings. 3.79 ERA. 1.97 K/BB. The lowest K/BB total of the three.
What should we take away from those projections?
That the Red Sox have a good pitcher in 2009.
But Matsuzaka is a very unreliable pitcher. Or reliably unreliable. One or the other.
So if he is terrible it will surprise me a lot. A pitcher with the quality of stuff that Dice-K has should not be terrible, not when healthy anyway.
But I have to add, that even as great as his stuff is, if he is as great in 2009 as in 2008, then I will be surprised too. I think he can be good, but great seems to be a reach. But then again, there is something that he does well, he does not allow hitters to make hard contact against him. And if hitters continue to not hit the ball hard, then, well, I like his chances
But succeeding in consecutive seasons with a low BABIP will be difficult. So Daisuke will hopefully walk fewer batters, because the average on balls in play will probably be greater than it was in 2008. And with a higher average on balls in play, with the same amount of baserunners occupying the basepaths. It will result in more runs scored.
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