If pitching rotations were made up of all Jamie Moyers, then maybe Julio Lugo would be the best option at the shortstop position.
But pitching rotations are made up of multiple arms, different arsenals, and some pitchers that are much better than Jamie Moyer.
And that is why I am an advocate for Jed Lowrie as starting SS, rather than Julio Lugo.
Sure, Lowrie is younger, more unproven. But what exactly has Lugo proven during his time in Boston?
It’s almost unbelievable that the starting SS for the Red Sox the past two seasons is the same player that once posted a WARP1 of 6.2 (2005 with Tampa). That season, Lugo batted .295/.362/.403.
And then at the beginning of 2006, Lugo was clearly having his best year ever (contract year). Lugo’s line in 06′: .308/.373/.498.
That is truly incredible. Even if it was only half a season. A shortstop slugging .500 isn’t exactly easy to come by, even for only a 73 game stretch.
Was that really the same SS as the one that Boston has seen for parts of two seasons? The same one that couldn’t seem to do anything well consistently?
Granted, Lugo was terrible after he was traded at that midseason of 2006 to the Dodgers. But not everyone can handle a new city, a new league, with ease like Manny or Abreu. It could also be Lugo coming down to Earth…more like a meteor in that case though.
Julio Lugo seems to have encountered troubles arriving in the last two cities that were “new” to him.
Jed Lowrie on the other hand was dubbed by scouts as not having enough range, possibly, to play shortstop at the big league level.
And maybe he will be a below-average defender once he gets a decent sample size under his “Games Played” totals. However, what Lowrie did defensively was field somewhere between “adequately” and “well” in 2008.
Jed also happens to be a switch hitter, which is nice. And with an injury–to his hand I believe–Lowrie still reached the league average OBP. His power was clearly “lacking” although not terrible among shortstops. But that may have been because of the aforementioned injury.
There are a few reasons why Lowrie may not get the nod to start however:
1) The Red Sox obviously want to build up Julio Lugo’s trade value in Spring Training, and during the beginning of the season, possibly. Since any team that wants Lugo will probably make the Red Sox absorb most of his salary, then the Red Sox want to spend as little money as possible on a player that will not be on their roster.
2) Julio Lugo cannot be as bad as he was in 2007 and 2008, can he? Even I think there is “upside” in Lugo compared to his past few seasons. I would wager a lot of money on Lugo being closer to an average all-around SS in 2008 (assuming he stays healthy) than he would being a poor SS (even if that meant he was “slightly better than below-average”). Apparently, Lugo is healthy, and all indications are that Lugo gets back on track, at least close to what he was in maybe the 2003-2004 seasons (OPS+’s 98 and 94). I doubt that Lugo, given the playing time, would be as horrendous as he has been during the first two seasons of his current contract.
3) And there is always the possiblity that the Red Sox have taken into account Jacoby Ellsbury’s “struggles” last season. Ellsbury wasn’t a terrible player, but the expectations that the Boston fans sometimes put on these young Red Sox players can be unrealistic. Ellsbury was almost a “Batting title or bust” type player after what he did in the 2007 season. I used a little exaggeration there, but seriously, Ellsbury was expected to accomplish big things in his first full season, it seemed. Anyway, if we were talking about spending money on a veteran SS out on the free agent market, that would be no better than average, then Lowrie would easily be the best candidate. But we are speaking about a player in Lugo that is already under contract A player that will cost the Red Sox money regardless, so he must be in the equation.
Julio Lugo might be able to “serve the purpose”. But Jed Lowrie might be an above average player at the position. There is that downside because Lowrie is younger, and could possibly experience some “growing pains.” Yet, Lowrie might very well be the shortstop of the future. And the Red Sox have had trouble finding guys who can play that position well, recently.
Whoever does receive the starting job can be replaced if they struggle for too long of a period. I would be much more careful removing Lowrie from the position, and would definitely show a little more patience with him than I would Lugo. Because of the possible “emotional fragility” at a younger age (although Lowrie could be like Pedroia in that sense for all we know).
But since Lowrie might be the future solution to the position, then I say “Let’s see what he can do.” The young SS will turn 25 the first month of the season, so it isn’t as if he is 21 or 22.
He is 25, give him a chance.
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