I was one of the very few people unhappy (extremely so) with Jason Bay’s acquisition at 3:59:59 on July 31st, so that will obviously color the reaction this piece, but try to hear me out. Why are we so desperate to extent Jason at this exact point in time? As I see it, here are the potential results from this point forward.
1). Jason Bay continues exactly as he has been, putting up a .290/.370/.525 or so line.
2). Jason Bay hits a wall and produces a .250/.330/.440 line.
3). Jason Bay has a career year (or career half-year), with a .330/.400/.580 line.
Now, if #1 happens, then there is nothing gained by signing him now versus the future, because he’s done exactly what we expect him to do. So signing him now only removes our ability to see if he can maintain that .900 OPS for the latter half of 2008 in the superior league.
If #2 happens, then we aren’t locked down having signed a mediocre talent to a ridiculous contract, having already done that at a number of positions. If we think 2009 was an outlier, we can sign him to a severely undervalued contract, saving millions versus a March, 2009 signing.
#3 is the only situation where we would be endangered, because his value would increase greatly with a contract year push. However, chances are we wouldn’t bend over backwards to sign a 30-something to an $18m/y contract, which some other team, perhaps in the Bronx, would do so happily.
I can understand the counter argument that the Sox are unlikely to negotiate during the season, and they like to remove potential risk from the system, but signing people before we truly determine what they’ll produce has led to an execrable, overpriced left side of the infield and millions wasted each season. Table the Jason Bay issue and see what happens.
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