FO for ESPN Insider doubts it at least Short story short: other than Eli Manning, no quarterback has consistently shown higher passer ratings or DVOA in ‘clutch situations’. Basically, if a QB is good…he’ll play good in the clutch. If he is bad…he’ll play bad. Over time things even out. So if 18 seems amazing with the game on the line…it’s because he’s actually amazing all the time.
Baseball analysts have generally dispelled the idea of the clutch hitter, a player who routinely raises his game in late and close situations. Now it’s time to retire the myth of the clutch quarterback. We looked both at conventional NFL passer rating and our advanced metrics, and there was no year-to-year correlation in the difference between a quarterback’s overall performance and his performance when the game was on the line. It apparently matters not that clutch situations in the NFL feature an element that baseball players don’t have to worry about: clock management. Bad QBs overall, such as Kyle Orton, are bad in the clutch. Good QBs overall, such as Ben Roethlisberger, are good in the clutch. Same goes for backs and receivers.
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