7. Expect the Colts to focus on pressuring the pocket: The Texans are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on the ground, the second-lowest average in the NFL, and their ground game won’t be helped by having their top tight end out for the year. Houston will need to pass the ball if it wants to move the chains and get the ball into the end zone. Look for Indy defensive coordinator Ron Meeks to bring the occasional blitz in order to pressure QB Matt Schaub into some bad throws.
It’s nice of Ron Meeks to help out this week. I’m glad he found the time to worry about the Colts while he’s coaching in Carolina.
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The Texans cannot afford to have Steve Slaton fumble the ball and in simulations where Ryan Moats is featured the Texans win 19 percent vs just 15 percent when Slaton is the #1 RB. The Texans will need a huge game from Matt Schaub and the defense needs to harass Peyton Manning all game. If Schaub has a 2+ TDs, 0 INTs while the defense sacks Manning at least 3 times the Texans have a 50 percent chance of winning. However, if the Texans turn the ball over even once and Manning is sacked less than twice the Texans have just a 13 percent chance.
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