The debate is quickly becoming about math versus emotion. Tip to Matt the Geologist.
A very interesting and controversial decision with the Patriots last night. I read the Advanced NFL Stats analysis and concur with Brian Burke’s general framing of the problem and his support of Belichick. Here are three ways ZEUS breaks down the problem. In each scenario, an extended simulation is performed beginning with the exact circumstance on 4th-and-2 and finishing at the conclusion of the game.
Scenario 1: The custom case for the specific offensive and defensive features of the Colts and the Patriots.
Going for it: 77.3% (Probability of Winning for the Patriots)
Punting: 75.7%Scenario 2: The case for two N.F.L. average and equal teams in every offensive and defensive category:
Going for it: 78.6% (Probability of Winning for the Patriots)
Punting: 76.4%
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