Larkin had a solid showing. I feared a number in the 30s would be an ill sign for the future. I think he’ll be in within 5 years at this rate.
Seventy-five percent of the vote is needed for election. Larkin got 51.6 percent.
The only player to get in was Andre Dawson with 77 percent.
Former Hall of Fame researcher and author Bill Deane, who is an expert on gauging vote totals, said the 51.6 percent is a good sign.
“If he gets in the mid- to high 30s or better, his future looks good,” Dean said before the vote. “But if Larkin draws a vote total in the 20’s, especially the low 20’s, his future is in trouble.”
That’s the way it’s been for position players, such as Dale Murphy, Don Mattingly, Alan Trammell and Cincinnati native Dave Parker, a former Pirates and Reds star. They’ve been treading water for years, and in some cases, even gone down in their voting percentages after the first year.
“It’s as though some of the writers who voted for them see the percent (the players) get the first year and think, ‘Well, maybe he isn’t a Hall of Famer,’ and they don’t vote for him next time,” Deane says.
On the other hand, outfielder Jim Rice received 29.8 percent in his first year, and last year was elected in his 15th and final year.
Deane predicted Larkin will get 23 percent Wednesday.
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