Should the Saints blitz?

Taking data from week three last year is a mistake.

Thanks to the Football Outsiders’ game charters, we know how often and how successfully teams blitzed. This year Manning and the Colts averaged 8.2 yards per pass against five or more rushers, second-best in the league. They are one of the few teams that are actually better against a blitz than a four-man rush, against which they average only 7.3 yards. (“Only” 7.3 yards is still third best in the league, behind the Saints and, coincidentally, his brother’s New York Giants.)

During Manning’s career, the Colts have faced Gregg Williams’ blitz-happy defenses seven times. In recent years, there have been three games: two against the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2008 and one against the Washington Redskins in 2006. It’s a very small sample of information, yes — but in all three games, the Colts went against type and played worse against the blitz. The Saints’ best shot to win the Super Bowl is for that to repeat itself.

In their Week 3 loss to the Jaguars last year, the Colts managed just 5.8 yards per pass play against the Jaguars’ blitz, which was far worse than when Jacksonville sent just four. Manning went just 5-for-13 for 63 yards against the blitz. The Colts got completions of 29 and 14 yards, plus a 16-yard pass interference call, but Manning was sacked once and hurried on six of his throws, including one of his two interceptions on the day. By contrast, he went 10-for-17 for 152 yards and was only hurried twice when the Jags rushed four.

In the other two games, Manning carved up two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, but in both games, Manning threw fewer yards per pass against Williams’ blitz. These games offer reason to believe that Gregg Williams’ defense is one of few that can blitz effectively against Manning and the Colts.

Based on this (admittedly meager) history and the play of the Colts and Saints this year, the best chance the Saints have to defend Manning is not just to blitz often but to blitz six. In those Jaguars and Redskins games, the Colts were much less effective against six rushers. This year the Colts managed only 5.4 yards against big blitzes. Blitzing six is a specialty of the Saints this year; they blitzed at least six on 21 percent of defensive pass plays, second only to the Eagles. They gave up just 4.8 yards per pass when they rushed six, by far the best figure for any team that sent that many rushers at least 15 percent of the time.

The Saints need to keep the pressure on Manning. The blitz is always a risky proposition, but it is also the engine of the Saints’ big-play defense and a matchup they can win.

Tim Gerheim is an author of Football Outsiders.