Preaching patience

Do the Saints struggle with the Cover 2?

In the opening game of the 2007 season, the Indianapolis Colts held the New Orleans Saints’ high-octane offense to just three points. The Colts’ Cover-2 was kryptonite to head coach Sean Payton’s offensive trickery, and the Saints have spent the past three years trying to counter a league-wide pattern where opponents try to slow them down with that defensive scheme. They have made improvement against the scheme, but the Saints will have to be patient on Sunday to maximize their offensive efficiency.

The Saints are a diverse offense with no real weaknesses — but they thrive on the big pass play. The Colts present an awkward match-up because they excel at preventing big plays. Their base Cover-2 defense is specifically designed to keep plays in front of the deep safeties. In addition, the Saints use multiple formations to create mismatches, but the Colts’ zone-heavy scheme minimizes the impact of bad match-ups. Payton’s unique genius for formations is a wasted skill when even the most obtuse offensive coordinator knows how the Colts’ base defense will respond to various formations.

The 2007 game was only one game and was played more than two years ago, but at the time it was symbolic of the Saints’ struggles against so-called Tampa-2 teams like Indianapolis. In 2007, New Orleans played four games against Tampa-2 teams: the Colts and Chicago Bears once each, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers twice. According to Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, the Saints’ offense was below average in all four games. They were above average in nine of their other 12 games.

Over the past two seasons, the Saints have improved in attacking two-deep coverage, but they still have more problems than usual against those opponents. Last year, according to DVOA, the Saints played five below average offensive games. Three were against teams who play primarily Tampa-2: Chicago, the Minnesota Vikings, and Tampa Bay (although the Bears played less Tampa-2 in 2008 than in other recent seasons).