I covered this a few weeks ago, but their numbers have hated the Colts all year. Something is broken in their computer.
While Brees will be making his first trip to the biggest game, Manning has been there before. And while the computers won’t take that experience into effect, they will take the veteran signal-caller and the Colts’ offensive numbers. They were right behind the Saints in terms of production, going for 5.9 yards per play during the regular season thanks almost entirely to the prolific passing attack. Indianapolis ranked near the bottom of the barrel in the league in rushing, averaging a paltry 3.5 yards per game, but with Manning and a countless number of receiving threats, the Colts racked up 7.7 yards per pass attempt.
Those kinds of numbers could be dangerous for a Saints’ defense that was simply run of the mill during the regular season. New Orleans was even worse, at least in terms of ranking, against the run, but that might not hurt as much against a Colts team that struggled on the ground. Either way, while the Colts offensive numbers are slightly behind the Saints, New Orleans’ defense doesn’t stack up to that of Indianapolis as the Saints ranked 21st, giving up 5.6 yards per play.
Much of the talk over the next week and a half will surely come on that Manning-Brees showdown, but the computers like the savvy quarterbacks to post nearly identical numbers in the Super Bowl. And while most of the numbers are similar, right down to the score, it seems to be New Orleans’ rushing game that will give them the edge.
They also think Brees matters more than Peyton. Uh, no.
To our surprise, Manning only improved the Colts chances of winning by a little over 12% when facing a Saints team with the likes of David Garrard behind center (league average). This goes back to the fact the Saints supporting cast is stronger than the Colts and heck, Peyton couldn’t even beat Archie. Peyton does improve the Colts average score by a field goal, but it’s not surprising when you factor in Manning’s season statistics and, more than likely, the Saints’ league average quarterback inability to move the football down the field.
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