Accuscore favors Colts

Well, at least one CPU likes us.

The Colts are the simulation favorite winning 54 percent of the time. Both QBs are posting impressive simulation stat lines, but Peyton Manning has the slight edge with an overall passer rating of 99 vs 94 for Brees. Brees is completing a higher percentage of his passes (69 vs 66 percent), but Manning is projected for more yards (292 vs 250) and has a 63 percent chance of passing for 2+ TDs vs 49 percent for Brees. The key for the Saints to upset the Colts is their pass defense playing like they did in the first 12 weeks of the regular season and not like they have recently. AccuScore uses a proprietary power rating formula that ranks the best team at 100% and the worst at 0%. After Week 12 when the Saints destroyed the Patriots the team had a pass defensive power rating of 90%. However, since Week 13 on the Saints pass defense is in the bottom 3rd in the league at 31%. If the Saints pass defense is like the Week 1-12 unit and intercept Manning at least once then the Saints actually have a 57 percent chance of winning. The Colts pass rush is one of the best units in the league and even if they do not sack Drew Brees a lot, they can definitely pressure harass him like the Vikings did. The defensive key for the Colts is for the run defense to continue playing well. Overall the Colts run defensive power rating is just 56% – slightly above average. However, if you disregard their Week 16 and 17 data when they rested starters, the Colts run defense power rating is a high 89 percent. If Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combine for under 100 rushing yards the Saints are heavy 22 percent underdogs because without an effective running game even Drew Brees will struggle when he is facing 3rd and long too many times. If this game ends up as a shootout with both QBs playing great (300+ yards, 2+ TDs) the Colts are favored to come out on top with a 57 percent chance of winning. The Colts have the edge because they are committing fewer turnovers. There is a 52 percent chance the Saints commit 2 or more turnovers vs 41 percent for the Colts. If the Colts do commit 2 or more turnovers the Saints have the 61 percent edge, but if they commit under 2 turnovers the Colts are the 54 percent favorite.