At first glance, despite being wowed by the strikeouts, I shudder at his 9.0 BB/9 IP in his rookie year. His control steadily improved, but a career 1.8 K/BB ratio in a statistically significant number of innings over four years is not a record that inspires thoughts of world beater dominance. Those walks befuddle his entire Cuban career and leave him open to comparison to past live arms (Brien Taylor, though injury claimed him as much as inability) who never were able to harness their talent to translate it to a long term major league career.
What’s even more damning is that, unlike Strasburg, who at least had some experience this autumn in the Arizona Fall League, Chapman hasn’t pitched competitively since defecting last July. Spring Training will give us a statistically insignificant taste of his talent, against competition that’s working out the kinks, readying themselves for the season and not playing full tilt. Cincinnati needs to recognize that unlike Washington, they are not getting a polished player, they have a raw talent, needing a minimum of two seasons in the minors to resolve his control issues and acclimate to MLB style ball. It wouldn’t hurt if in that time the Reds also decide to install a manager who doesn’t have the reputation of wearing out talented pitchers
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