Predicting YPC

The explanation is involved, but I like what it claims about Addai

So what the heck does this mean? Well, for every 18 pounds of weight on a player, you should reduce his projected YPC by 0.01; the difference between a 200- and 236-pound running back, all else being equal, is about 0.2 projected YPC in Year N+1. Similarly, every 22 receptions a player has increases his expected YPC by about 0.1 YPC in the following season. And hearing the commissioner call your name first overall — relative to him never calling your name at all — increases your projected YPC in Year N+1 by about a quarter of a yard per carry. And with all of these extra things in the formula, the Year N yards per carry variable goes from making up about 42% of the future projection to about 35%, about a 16% drop.

Let’s throw these all together to show the best fit projections for the 2010 season, looking at RBs who had at least 200 carries in ’09 and have not yet switched teams this off-season: