Top 50 Free Agents: Rankings and Predictions

Last year, on November 6th, 2007, I released my top 50 Free Agents
rankings and predictions. You can check out the archive on my old blog if you are interested.This year, a week later than usual, I’ve again ranked and predicted the destinations for the top 50 free agents of this year’s free agent class. 2009 is very top-heavy, and there aren’t many sexy names in the bottom 25, but that only made everything that much more unpredictable. Please note I also think the most action this off-season will be made through trades rather than big free agent contracts.

Click here to read my predictions for Free Agents 26-50

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25: Freddy Garcia – Detroit Tigers

Garcia is pitching winter ball this year to get caught up after missing most of last year with an injury. He will be a low-price, high-risk signing for any team, and with the Tigers trying to cut payroll it seems like the perfect match. He would get the opportunity to start every fifth day for the pitching-starved Detroit team. Runner-up: New York Mets

24: Orlando Cabrera – Minnesota Twins

OC and the Twins have a mutual interest in 2009, he would provide stability offensively and defensively for a team that seemed to be only a few pieces away from making a playoff run last year. Cabrera is approaching the wrong side of his career, and this could be his last big money, multi-year contract. That could be a major factor if he doesn’t sign with the Twinkies. Runner-up: St. Louis Cardinals

23: Randy Johnson – Arizona Diamondbacks

At the end of it all, I am still feeling that the Arizona Diamondbacks will find a way to bring Johnson back to get his 300th win in their uniform. That would give them a sellout for every game he pitches at home with a chance to get the magic number, as well as a chance for Johnson to retire as a Diamondback in the HOF. They two sides are only a few million apart, and against the odds, I say they make a deal. Runner-up: Chicago Cubs

22: Casey Blake – Cleveland Indians

Blake is a professional ballplayer. He plays defense well, he hits well, and he, according to all reports, is a standup guy in the clubhouse. Cleveland traded him last year to help the club rebuild for 2009 and I believe Blake is part of that plan. The Indians are always more dangerous during odd numbered years for whatever reason. Runner-up: Chicago White Sox

21: Randy Wolf – Houston Astros

Wolf will test free agency and see what he can get on the open market, but he pitched great last season after being traded to Houston. I think the Astros are one of a large number of clubs planning on going broke for the 2009 season. Expect them to retain Wolf and look to add another arm through trade for their starting rotation. Runner-up: Texas Rangers

20: Jamie Moyer – Philadelphia Phillies

Not much of an explanation needed here, Moyer is a Philadelphia guy who just won a world championship and is pitching toward retirement more than anything else. It doesn’t make any sense for him to leave, and at his price and consistency in their rotation, it wouldn’t make any sense to see him leave Philly, either. Runner-up: Retirement

19: Jason Giambi – Oakland A’s

Toronto and Oakland are the two clubs that have a history of signing aging DH-type players to one year deals. Oakland, with the trade for Matt Holliday, is clearly going to try to make a run next seaason, or at least get some parts they can trade next summer. Giambi makes sense, because if he starts off well, he will be a desirable asset for a contender, and if not, it’ll only be a one year deal. Runner-up: New York Yankees

18: Bobby Abreu – Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have been dying for a left-handed hitter for, oh, six years now? Abreu will provide that bat, at a high cost. He will also provide hours of entertainment on Sportscenter playing right field at Wrigley. Expect the Cubs to try to trade an outfielder, either the young Felix Pie or the overpriced Fukudome. Runner-up: New York Yankees

17: Raul Ibanez – New York Mets

The National League New York team also has to go for broke this year, especially after seeing their division rivals win it all. Ibanez adds more pop to the outfield, and veteran experience for down the stretch. The outfield is getting crowded here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some trades happen before opening day. Runner-up: Toronto Blue Jays

16: Andy Pettitte – New York Yankees

It’s hard for me to see him going anywhere, even back to Houston. New York has accepted him through the entire HGH scandal, and his backstabbing of Clemens. Not all cities would be as forgiving. He will have to accept a cut in pay, which would be worth retiring as a Yankee and cementing his legacy with the team. Runner-up: Retirement

15: Rafael Furcal  – Los Angeles Dodgers

The best shortstop available in the free agent market, Furcal wants to stay in LA and vice versa. Remember, before he got hurt, Furcal was looking like a team, and even NL, MVP candidate. His leadoff contributions are invaluable to the club. Would be surprised to see him sign elsewhere, but will be highly desired since he wouldn’t cost any draft picks. Runner-up: St. Louis Cardinals

14: Mike Mussina – New York Yankees

Again, I honestly think he’ll retire, but that is because I believe players will do what is best. My head tells me that Mussina will continue to pitch on a dream of reaching 300 wins so he can retire with a HOF call a sure thing. Expect him to pitch one more year in NY, and then go from team-to-team ala Greg Maddux picking up wins until he hits his milestone. Runner-up: Retirement

13: Brian Fuentes – New York Mets

K-Rod is the sexy name that set the record, but baseball people know Fuentes is the real prize this Hot Stove season. With less milage and regression, and a history of pitching well at Coors Field of all places, Fuentes is the closer the Mets will lock up while Billy Wagner recovers from surgery. Runner-up: Milwaukee Brewers

12: Orlando Hudson – St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals will complete their middle infield upgrade by signing Hudson, a great addition and huge upgrade over Adam Kennedy, who is destined for more a utility role with any major league team. The Cubs have been searching for two years now for a 2nd baseman but have been unable to acquire Brian Roberts. Although they have a glutton of middle infielders already, they might try to lure Hudson to Wrigley anyway. Runner-up: Chicago Cubs

11: Milton Bradley – Atlanta Braves

Everyone knows the book on Bradley, great talent, loose cannon. He is another player I have a soft spot for from his tenure with the Harrisburg Senators. The Blue Jays might make more sense here, but I see them going with the cheaper alternative in Wilkerson. Look for the Braves to allow Bradley, on a short leash, to roam the outfield in Atlanta. Runner-up: Toronto Blue Jays

10: Pat Burrell – Philadelphia Phillies

Talk about a love-hate relationships. Pat the Bat has to be the most booed player in the history of Philadelphia for players that have spent their entire career with the team. It would be tough for the Phillies to replace his production, and I don’t think their is much of a market for Burrell to make high demands. Eventually these two will be the A-Rod/NYY relationship of 2009, resigning as the fans collectively groan. Runner-up: Atlanta Braves

9: Ryan Dempster – Atlanta Braves

Looking at this from a dollars and cents perspective, this may be Dempster’s biggest opportunity to cash in. He has been a yo-yo for the Cubs, going from starter to closer to starter and last  year had a breakout season. The Braves are going to need another starter and Dempster will be affordable comparable to Lowe, Sheets, or Sabathia. This all goes out the window if the Braves land Jake Peavy. Runner-up: Chicago Cubs

8: Derek Lowe – Boston Red Sox

This doesn’t make much sense but seems inevitable. The Sox are going to have to make a move for a starter this offseason, and Lowe will cost the least in terms of prospects and money of all the “top tier” guys. I don’t quite understand the logic of wan

ting Lowe in 2009 after not wanting him in 2005, but that’s why I’m not a GM. He is the one player I really don’t have a clue on. Runner-up: New York Yankees

7: Ben Sheets – Texas Rangers

Texas has a history of overpaying starters who are either ineffective or injured for the majority of their time with the team. Why buck tradition now? Honestly, Sheets could be an effective, front-line pitcher for the Ranger if he can stay healthy. There are a lot of teams who will be hot for his services, but after not spending much money last season, and the West as weak as its ever been, I think Texas will make some moves in 2009. Runner-up: Milwaukee Brewers

6: Francisco Rodriguez – Houston Astros

Houston has to be hurt after seeing Brad Lidge dominate during a perfect season for Philadelphia, especially his post-season performances. Their reaction? Overpay for the msot over-rated closer in the market. I think K-Rod would benefit by a move to the NL, where the hitters are not used to his violent delivery. There is still a chance he could end up back in LA, but only if the market completely dries up due to the economy. Runner-up: New York Mets

5: A.J. Burnett – Toronto Blue Jays

This is the starter I wish the Red Sox would be able to land, but I have a feeling Toronto knows to compete in 2009 and beyond, they need to lock up Burnett. He’ll use the Yankees, Red Sox, and Braves to help increase Toronto’s offer and they’ll eventually comply. There is rumors Baltimore would be interested, but I would consider them a longshot. Runner-up: Boston Red Sox

4: Adam Dunn – Washington Nationals

Everyone knows the Nationals are rebuilding, but they need someone to put fans into the seats of their beautiful new stadium. Soriano helped fuel ticket sales during his time with the team, and Adam Dunn will put people in the seats by hitting baseballs into them. After reassigning Dimitri Young, and Nick Johnson unable to stay healthy, a Mark Tiexeria signing seems possible here, too, but Dunn might be more economical for the club. Runner-up: Chicago Cubs

3: Mark Teixeira  – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

My best guess here is that the Yankees will overspend on pitching and the Red Sox will be unable to decide what to do with Mike Lowell. This will help the Angels be able to afford to resign their slugging first baseman. Arte Morano has hinted they will invest in one major free agent this year, similiar to the Torii Hunter signing last year, and Gary Mathews, Jr the year before. If the Yankees don’t bring back Giambi, Tex could be their man target. Runner-up: Washington Nationals

2: C.C. Sabathia  – New York Yankees

Everyone knows Sabathia after his workhorse heroics for the Brewers in 2008. Everyone also knows that is a lot of milage on a pitcher who already had a lot of miles on him from his days in Cleveland. I am sure Brian Cashman knows this, and I am sure that Hank Steinbrenner doesn’t care. I think Steinbrenner is still upset his team didn’t get Johan Santana last season, but I would rather have CC for the next six than Santana. Runner-up: Milwaukee Brewers

1: Manny Ramirez  – Los Angeles Dodgers

He still makes me sick to my stomach and homesick at the same time. I just don’t think any other team will pay him even near the money and length that he is looking for other than the Dodgers. LA more than any other town, realizes the star power Manny has in addition to his hitting power. He won’t get the four years Boras wants, but a 2 or 3 year deal worth “A-Rod money” will keep Manny and his being Manny in LA. Runner-up: New York Yankees (the only other team that could afford him)

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TOP 100 – Here is a list of players, in no specific order, that round out my top 100 free agents.

Mark Loretta, Juan Uribe, Bob Howry, Brian Giles, Alan Embree, Brandon Lyon, Dennys Reyes, Eric Gagne, Frank Thomas, Garret Anderson, Greg Maddux, Gregg Zaun, Hank Blalock, Jeff Kent, Joe Beimel, Luis Gonzalez, Miguel Olivo, Mike Cameron, Paul Lo Duca, Salomon Torres, Trever Miller, Scott Podsednik, Adam Everett, Al Reyes, Carl Pavano, Jason Isringhausen, Corey Patterson, Daryle Ward, David Eckstein, Doug Mientkiewicz, Gabe Kapler, Guillermo Mota, Jason Jennings, Jason Michaels, Jay Payton, Jerry Hairston Jr., Jim Edmonds, Juan Rincon, Kevin Mench, Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Mark Mulder, Mark Prior, Matt Clement, Mike Hampton, Nomar Garciaparra, Pedro Martinez, Richie Sexson, Sean Casey, Tadahito Iguchi, Darren Oliver, Doug Brocail, Russ Springer, Brian Shouse, David Weathers, Moises Alou, Aaron Boone, Alex Cintron, Alex Cora, Arthur Rhodes, Bartolo Colon, Brad Ausmus, Brendan Donnelly, Casey Fossum, Cesar Izturis, Chad Fox, Chad Moeller, Chris Gomez, Cliff Floyd, Craig Counsell, Craig Monroe, Curt Schilling, Damion Easley, David Ross, Eddie Guardado, Emil Brown, Felipe Lopez, Glendon Rusch, Greg Norton, Henry Blanco, Horacio Ramirez, Jamey Wright, Jason Johnson, Javier Valentin, Joe Borowski, Joe Crede, Johnny Estrada, Jon Lieber, Jose Vidro, Josh Bard, Josh Fogg, Juan Rivera, Julian Tavarez, Keith Foulke, Kenny Rogers, Kenshin Kawakami, Kip Wells, Koji Uehara, Kris Benson, Livan Hernandez, Luis Ayala, Mark Hendrickson, Matt Herges, Matt Wise, Michael Barrett, Miguel Cairo, Mike Lamb, Mike Lincoln, Mike Sweeney, Mike Timlin, Omar Vizquel, Orlando Hernandez, Paul Bako, Ramon Vazquez, Ray Durham, Rich Aurilia, Rodrigo Lopez, Roger Clemens, Ron Villone, Rudy Seanez, Russell Branyan, Scott Eyre, Sergio Mitre, Shawn Chacon, Shawn Estes, Sidney Ponson, Toby Hall, Tom Glavine, Tom Gordon, Tomohiro Nioka, Tony Clark, Will Ohman, Willie Bloomquist