Picks for the Weak: Week 12

Here we go for another exciting* round of College Football action!

There are a couple good matchups this weekend intermixed with a whole lot of spam.  It’s surprisingly hard to choose 10 exciting games every week – especially if you’re trying to avoid picking the same teams week in and week out.

This is the week where Utah finally falls out of the polls – finally.  They should have done it last week after getting spanked by Notre Dame, but they only dropped to #23.  Of course we’re also picking the Army/Notre Dame game.  Army, much to my surprise, currently holds a winning record and could use another win to solidify their bowl hopes.  Very impressive.

One other surprising point, do you realize that there is a non-zero chance that Michigan and Ohio State could end with the same record going into the bowl season?  That’s right, and Michigan would have the tiebreaker in that scenario as well.  Michigan currently sits at 7-3 with games against Wisconsin and, of course, the Buckeyes.  If OSU were to lose to Iowa and (heaven help us) drop one to Michigan, and Michigan were to upset Wisconsin, Michigan would be 9-3 and tied with the Buckeyes.  Really makes you think about that whole “rooting against Wisconsin” thing, doesn’t it?

It also takes a whole new meaning when  you realize that the scenario above would leave Michigan State in sole possession of the Big Ten conference.  I think I’m going to be sick.

Let’s get to the games before I think about this anymore.

*Your actual feelings may vary.

Saturday, November 20th

Army vs. Notre Dame (Neutral Site)

Can you believe that Army is bowl eligible this season?  The last time that occured was 1996, when the Black Knights went 10-2 and fell to Auburn 32-29 in the Independence Bowl.  14 seasons is a long time to wait for a bowl game, especially when many of them are 3-9 seasons.

Notre Dame is not currently bowl eligible, sitting at 5-5 for the season.  The Domers are coming off an impressive win of what is quickly looking like a horrendously overrated Utah team.  A win against Army would give this team the bowl game they probably desperately need after such a rough season.

Notre Dame won’t be the best team that Army faces all season (Air Force fills that spot more than likely) but they will be too tough for the Black Knights to handle this time around.

Eric: Notre Dame 28, Army 24

Computers: Notre Dame 31, Army 15 (88.1%)

Illinois at Northwestern

The fighting Zookers have two games left to try to earn their coach a bowl game, and need 1 game to do it.  Given that their last game of the year is against 6-3 Fresno State maybe they don’t need it in this one, but you can better believe they’ll be gunning for it.

Northwestern just completed a great upset of the Iowa Hawkeyes at home, and may have the potential for a little bit of a letdown.  With Persa out with his ACL tear, that makes it nearly a certainty.

Eric: Illinois 24, Northwestern 17

Computers: Northwestern 33, Illinois 19 (86.1%)

#23 Utah at San Diego State

The Utes sure have fallen on hard times.  After rolling into the TCU game undefeated they’ve now rattled off 2 straight blowout losses, including the one to Notre Dame.  Utah fans simply have to hate life right now.

San Diego State is also coming off a loss to TCU, but the Aztecs fared much better than their MWC compatriots, falling by only 5 after a valiant comeback attempt.  San Diego State has faced some decent competition, and played reasonably well in those games.  That makes it tough to try to decide who’s going to win this one.

Although given my statement last week, perhaps that’s not so difficult after all.

Eric: San Diego State 35, Utah 10

Computers: Utah 32, San Diego State 26 (65.3%)

#25 Florida State at Maryland

This is the first of several contests to decide one of the spots for the ACC championship game.

Florida State was rattling off a wonderful season until a 2 game stretch against North Carolina State and North Carolina, both losses.  The Seminoles got back to their winning ways against the Clemson Tigers, but needed a last second 55 yard field goal to do it.

As for Maryland, if not for a loss to Miami (FL), they would probably be ranked right now and in the lead for the spot in the ACC title game.  A win over Florida State, followed by a win over NC State next week and they’re in.

Of course a Florida State win here gives the Seminoles the chance – as long as NC State loses once.

If Christian Ponder plays, FSU wins.  Without Ponder, FSU is not nearly the team they can be.  Maryland should be able to take out FSU in this one.

Eric: Maryland 17, FSU 13

Computers: Florida State 35, Maryland 26 (85.1%)

#14 Oklahoma at Baylor

We haven’t heard much about the Sooners since their meteoric fall from grace about a month ago.  Since then, the Sooners have gone 2-1, beating Colorado and Texas Tech but falling to Texas A&M.

Of these two teams Oklahoma is certainly the better team.  Despite that, Baylor could still give them a run for their money.  The game will be closer than the score indicates.

Eric: Oklahoma 42, Baylor 28

Computers: Oklahoma 34, Baylor 27 (69.3%)

#7 Wisconsin at Michigan

Lots of Buckeye fans are planning on rooting against Wisconsin in this one.  I remain among them if only due to my general distaste for that entire scumbag state.

Given the strength of Wisconsin’s defense, I find it unlikely that Michigan will be able to muster a large enough score to actually counteract all the points their own defense is going to cough up.  Should be a fun one to watch, especially if the Wolverine’s figure out how to tackle.

Eric: Wisconsin 45, Michigan 38

Computers: Wisconsin 43, Michigan 23 (89.1%)

#6 Stanford at California

The only reason this game is on here is because California has surprised a number of good teams this year and lost a few really close games.  That said, there’s no way Stanford trips up against them.  Harbaugh’s team is simply too good this year.

Eric: Stanford 45, California 20

Computers:  Stanford 36, California 20 (87.1%)

#8 Nebraska at #19 Texas A&M

This should be a fun game to watch.  Texas A&M is definitely on the right track to becoming relevant in college football again.  A big win over a team like Nebraska would go a long way towards making them a team to watch out for in the future.

Nebraska, of course, has other ideas.  But with how they’ve played in a couple of games this year – most notably against Texas – it’s hard to say if they’ll certainly win this game.

I’ll take A&M in the stunner.

Eric: Texas A&M 31, Nebraska 27

Computers: Texas A&M 27, Nebraska 26 (56.4%)

#13 Arkansas at #21 Mississippi State

Just like last week, there’s only one possible way this game could go, and it’s not the good way for Mississippi State.  Arkansas should have no trouble with the Bulldogs.

Eric: Arkansas 28, Mississippi State 17

Computers: Arkansas 40, Mississippi State 31 (80.2%)

#16 Virginia Tech at #24 Miami

Miami could be in serious trouble in this one.  Jacory Harris remains out with a concussion that current reports suggest is “serious and severe”.  That could spell trouble for the Canes, who have been starting freshman Stephen Morris the last couple games.  While he’s done well for himself, he has to face much stiffer competition against the rising Hokies.

The Hokies are currently 6-0 in the ACC and only have their two losses to Boise State and James Madison to be holding them out of the national title picture.   A win over Miami will essentially salt the conference away for the Hokies and give them access to yet another BCS game – their fourth in 6 years.

Given the way Miami has played recently, they’ll fight tough against the Hokies, but will not be able to secure the victory.

Eric: Virginia Tech 36, Miami 21

Computers: Virginia Tech  32, Miami 27 (57.9%)