Advanced NFL Stats has a Win Probability function, which bases on historic data, and spits out a win probability after every play. Want to see how it looked? The play before Dominic Rhodes fumbled, the Colts WP was 49%. After Rhodes’ fumble -> 19%, a drop of 30% in just one play. Yikes. Before Kerry Collins fumbled, the WP was 25%, and after was 68%, a jump of 43%. That’s how big of a play that was.
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