The first bit of evidence is the play-calling of Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith, as reported by Michael Salfino in a Wall Street Journal article this past Saturday. Nearly a decade ago, I was the editor on David Romer’s Journal of Political Economy paper that demonstrated that NFL coaches were far too cautious when it came to choosing to punt on fourth down. This year, on fourth down and three or fewer yards in the opponent’s territory, the Falcons went for it 72.2 percent of the time. I don’t have the data from ten years ago available to me, but I believe no team would have been close to this percentage back then. It paid off for the Falcons: they converted 84.6 percent of the time, increasing their points scored by about 30 points and possibly adding three wins. Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots was an early convert to Romer’s analysis – I am told Belichick read the paper carefully. The Patriots were the fourth most likely team to go for it on fourth down this year, converting all seven times they tried on fourth and short in their opponent’s territory.
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