LET’S BOOK: UFC 196: SUPERBOWL 2016 (PART 2)

CLICK HERE FOR PART 1

UFC 196: 135 lbs: Miesha Tate (17-5) vs. Bethe Correia (9-1)

So Miesha Tate was screwed out of a title shot after being publicly promised one by Dana White.  But what’s the real story?  Tate speculates that the UFC may be using her as a gatekeeper against other bantamweight contenders, and that’s something she’s most certainly not interested in.  White claims that he saved Tate by sparing her a third loss against Ronda Rousey, which Tate took as an insult.

What we do know is that Holly Holm pulled the upset of upsets at UFC 193 when she headkicked Rousey to oblivion, and considering the fight was a total destruction in Holm’s favor, the next logical match to have made was Holm-Tate.  However, the UFC has developed this obsession for booking instant rematches, especially if it’s one of their superstars who loses in an upset, even if it’s decisive (IE: Werdum-Velasquez).

White even had no hesitation booking the Holm-Rousey rematch immediately on the night of their first fight, stating it “made a lot of sense,” all-the-while Rousey was being rushed off to the hospital to save her busted lip and to diagnose a concussion (which, apparently, she didn’t suffer one, despite being knocked out cold)—again, leaving Tate in the lurch while Rousey, who has film commitments and isn’t even available until next summer, is guaranteed the next shot, putting the whole weight division on hold: UFC logic in 2015.

This is where Bethe Correia comes in.  Correia was very much rushed into a title shot after beating Rousey’s fellow horsewomen in what, in retrospect, can be chalked up as squash matches.  What Correia lacked heading into the (extremely successful) Rousey fight was a bout against a top bantamweight contender, and Correia made it clear afterward that she intends on fighting her way back up to Rousey, calling out Tate specifically in the process.

For Tate, who has a wrestling background up against Correia, who has been largely untested on the ground, this seems to be a very winnable fight.  Low risk (as opposed to a potential fight against Amanda Nunes), high reward, and with a win, Tate makes her case stronger for a title shot.

 
UFC 196: 145 lbs: Renan Barão (33-3-0-1) vs. Dennis Siver (22-11)

When you’re on top, everyone wants a shot at you.

Of course, I’m talking about Conor McGregor, and not Renan Barão—who was knocked off of his bantamweight throne by potential flyweight, T.J. Dillashaw, and once more for good measure.

With the ENORMOUS José Aldo-Conor McGregor bout on the horizon, this should spell opportunity for Aldo’s teammate Barão, whose story to a quick title shot would be to avenge his fallen teammate Aldo if Aldo should lose (as the oddsmakers surprisingly predict)—however, unfortunately for Barão, there’s a waiting list to fight McGregor.

If McGregor should win against Aldo, this is the potential line-up:

1. José Aldo (rematch)
2. Winner of Frankie Edgar-Chad Mendes (#1 contender)
3. Urijah Faber (obligatory TUF coaches grudge match)
4. T.J. Dillashaw (or whoever the bantamweight champion is at the time)
5. Winner of Rafael dos Anjos-Donald Cerrone (or whoever the lightweight champion is at the time)

And any number of name fighters who would do a bigger buyrate with McGregor than the relatively unpopular Barão.

What Barão needs is to re-establish himself as a destroyer at featherweight.  A fight with the hulking Dennis Siver, who himself got a lot of media play earlier this year being McGregor’s final stop before his title shot, would be a decent featherweight debut bout for Barão, who could then transition into the featherweight top 10 and start picking off other top featherweights if successful against Siver.

 
UFC 196: 135 lbs: Thomas Almeida (20-0) vs. Bryan Caraway (20-7)

There’s something about having a “0” in your loss column that makes you endlessly fascinating, even more so if your win column is in the double digits, like TWENTY wins, and 80% of those wins are by way of TKO/KO, 15% of them are by submission, and you only have one decision on your record.  That’s Thomas Almeida in a nutshell.

A recent step-up in competition for the 24-year-old saw him paired against Yves Jabouin, Brad Pickett, and Anthony Birchak, with Almeida finishing all three of them by impressive TKO/KOs in the first half of each fight.  When you’re looking that impressive, there’s going to be some obvious pressure to keep going higher on the ladder, and the next logical match-up should be against another top 10 opponent.

Bryan Caraway has had mixed success as of late, falling short of reaching the upper echelons of the bantamweight division in decision losses to Raphael Assuncao and Takeya Mizugaki.  Coming off of a win against Eddie Wineland, Caraway is in need of redeveloping a case for himself to again challenge another top bantamweight (including a proposed fight against Urijah Faber, of which Faber claims Caraway ducked him when they were tentatively scheduled for December’s TUF finale card).

A win over the most exciting prospect in the division would get people talking about Caraway again, but a loss to Almeida could result in getting kicked out of the top 10.  High risk, high reward.

 
Final Card
UFC 196: February 6, 2016

1. ---

   205: Jon Jones (21-1) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (16-4)

2. 170: Johny Hendricks (18-3) vs. Stephen Thompson (11-1)
3. 135: Miesha Tate (17-5) vs. Bethe Correia (9-1)
4. 145: Renan Barão (33-3-0-1) vs. Dennis Siver (22-11)
5. 135: Thomas Almeida (20-0) vs. Bryan Caraway (20-7)

The Wrap-Up

I opened up this article by inferring that historically, the UFC’s “Superbowl” cards are an impression to the rest of the sports audience, and though that might have been the intention once, I think what’s closer to the truth at this point is that the 2016 Superbowl card will have to make a strong impression on the mixed martial arts audience.

UFC 196 is perhaps the biggest of many November-March cards which will set up the marquee fights for the UFC 200 supercard taking place in July.  After a very disappointing 2014, and a foreboding 2015, the onus is on a successful string of cards in 2016 to build the UFC up to prominence again.  I said “foreboding” to describe 2015, because what happened this past year was a clear declaration from the MMA audience that they will not pay for every UFC-branded card like they used to.

The “Netflix subscription model,” which is now being used by the WWE in lieu of PPVs, is cutting out the cable middleman and making PPV a thing of the past in favor of a more affordable digital streaming option.  Even stacked cards like the UFC 187: Cormier-Johnson/Weidman-Belfort double championship main event brought in a disappointing 375,000 buys.  By deducting Jones out of the card, an entire PPV sank, and this is what’s somewhat foreboding for the UFC – that the audience will come together to watch individual stars and grudge matches, but not for the UFC brand anymore.

Both the MMA and casual audience came together for the Jones-Cormier grudge match in January (800,000 buys).  They then came together to watch McGregor become a star at UFC 189 (825,000 buys, even after Aldo pulled out).  Less than a month later, they came together to watch Rousey defeat Correia in a grudge match (900,000 buys).  These are the successes—the real successes—of 2015, and a model of what we need to see more of in 2016.

McGregor, the returning Jones, and arguably Rousey as well (despite the loss to Holm) will need to be the three prominent faces of UFC PPVs in 2016, until they catch fire with more stars.  The potential is there for Donald Cerrone should he win the UFC lightweight title in December, and perhaps for Dominick Cruz if he retakes the UFC bantamweight title in January after transforming into a very impressive analyst on FOX.  Paige VanZant and Sage Northcutt will be talents to watch as well on the undercard in 2016, and an imminent Anderson Silva comeback, as well as the rumors swirling around for a Georges St-Pierre comeback for “superfights only” is sure to create some excitement in the MMA world.

To summarize, UFC 196 has one major job, and that’s to set up one of UFC 200’s marquee fights: Jones-Cormier II, potentially.  UFC 200 as a standalone event will be the UFC’s olive branch to both the casual audience and the dedicated mixed martial arts audience, just like UFC 100 was, and if successful, the UFC can pull back in a lot of former fans who have abandoned the sport in recent years, as well as attract new fans, since dated ideas like “The Ultimate Fighter” don’t do this job anymore.

AUTHOR’S NOTE: Since the completion of this article in November, a few developments have been made for the UFC 196 “Superbowl” card.  It’s rumored that the Werdum-Velasquez Heavyweight Title rematch will either be moved up to this UFC 196 card in February, or a month later in March at UFC 197 in Werdum’s home country of Brazil.  Also, Jones is hinting a return at UFC 198, tentatively booked at Madison Square Garden, but highly dependent on if MMA becomes legalized in the state of New York since then.