Is Fernando Rodney Pitching His Way Out of Detroit?

You probably saw this title and aggressively clicked over to see what this moron was talking about.  Usually, when someone is pitching their way out of said city, it connotates that he is doing poorly.

Of course, that’s not the case with Rodney.  The premise of this post was to talk about how Rodney’s success this season as Detroit’s closer may be the cause Detroit will be unable to re-sign him in the offseason.  And then it’s “exciting” saves like the one he had Friday night that may indicate that it’s not such a bad thing.

Rodney has converted 32 saves in 33 opportunities this season (with probably half being in “exciting” fashion, but that’s neither here nor there) and has a 3.41 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP (after giving up 4 baserunners and 2 ER Friday).  He also sports a formidable 1.9 SO/BB ratio, not great, but good for a guy who has a reputation of having considerable control problems.  Obviously, as a closer, the numbers that matter most are what he does in save situations. He has a save percentage of 97% this season and has put up a 2.43 ERA when pitching in save situations.  It doesn’t get much more efficient than that.

Not a bad time to turn it on for Rodney either, who before this season had just a 67% save percentage (SV/SV+BS) during his career. Once this season comes to a close, Rodney will officially become a free agent this winter.  He’ll be looking for his first big pay day (he’s made roughly $7 million combined in his six major league seasons) and Detroit isn’t exactly loaded with dough to risk considering Magglio’s contract will (has?) vest and the Tigers have big contracts still remaining with Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Bonderman, Brandon Inge, Carlos Guillen, and Nate Robertson, amongst impending arbitration with Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson.

So the question is, will Rodney generate enough interest to earn himself the type of money closers have seen in the past after having big contract-year seasons?

Let’s put his numbers this season up against some of the others who earned big pay days during free agency after big contract years and see if we can’t come up with a reasonable number for Mr. Rodney:

Pitcher	Year	BS	SV%	ERA	WHIP	SO/BB Ratio	Contract Earned
Francisco Rodriguez	2008	7	90%	2.24	1.29	2.26	3-yrs/$37 million
Eric Gagne	2004	2	96%	2.19	0.91	5.18	2-yrs/$19 million
B.J. Ryan	2005	5	88%	2.43	1.14	3.85	5-yrs/$47 million
Kevin Gregg	2008	9	76%	3.41	1.28	1.57	1-yr/$4.2 million
Brad Lidge	2007	8	70%	3.36	1.25	2.93	1-yr/$6.35 million
Kerry Wood	2008	6	85%	3.26	1.09	4.70	2-yrs/$20.5 million
Fernando Rodney	2009	1	97%	3.41	1.33	1.90	?????

Notes:

K-Rod: Of course, K-Rod has a MUCH better resume than Rodney, full of Cy Young votes, All-Star appearances, and monstrous save numbers.  He, along with Mariano Rivera, might be the only closer worth all that money.  I think it’s safe to say Rodney will not see anything close to this type of contract.

Eric Gagne: Another case of someone clearly better than Rodney.  Also, Gagne’s perfect 2003 (55 saves in 55 opp.) to supplement his stellar 2004 probably helped.  He earned a 1-yr/$5 million deal for that season.

Kevin Gregg: He didn’t really earn himself anything after 2008, so this contract was mostly a case of the Cubs being desperate and paying Gregg for what he proved he could do if he pitched like he did in 2007.  If Rodney can’t get a multi-year contract that he’ll probably aggressively seek given his age (33 next March), we might find him settling for something around this ballpark, which is still almost double what he’s making this season, but it will be with hopes to prove himself for one more year and then potentially earn him a nice final, multi-year, deal.  Gregg hasn’t exactly done a good job doing that for himself, as he lost the closer’s role in Chicago.

Brad Lidge: Another case where it probably wasn’t the conract-year that earned him the money but having a good track record.  Aside from the blown saves, Lidge’s 2007 ERA is similar to Rodney’s this season.  Again, if Rodney doesn’t get a multi-year deal, I’d be willing to bet he lands somewhere for a year, making roughly $4-5 million, assuming he continues to excel for this final month and into the post-season. If that’s the case, maybe the Tigers re-sign him and let Lyon go. I don’t see the Tigers re-signing both, though.

Kerry Wood: This, with B.J. Ryan, is a great comparison. Here’s a pitcher, after his first great season (and first overall) as closer, makes bank during free agency.  We know how that has gone thus far (4.40 ERA with 5 blown saves in 22 opportunities).

Okay, you get the idea.  Rodney, despite the stellar year he is having as Detroit’s closer, is still not an elite closer by any means, but he definitely matches up statistically with a few who have gone on to make pretty good money during their free agency year.

Does that mean some team will come along, desperate for a stopper, and offer Rodney something the Tigers can not possibly trump?  Do the Tigers even want him back?

I think this season’s failures of Wood and Gregg might put teams on guard a little bit this off-season, especially given some of Rodney’s rocky saves this season.  The free agent list for relievers is rather slim, so I think Rodney will definitely generate interest, and certainly a guy who blows less saves than some of the elite closers raises eyebrows around the league.  Maybe it’s because it’s Fernando Rodney doing it, but, nonetheless, eyebrows are officially raised.