Ryan Pravato is going to bring you Michigan basketball coverage here at D4L and starts it off here with the season preview. Ryan is the head honcho over at Life on Dumars and is a student at the University of Michigan.
The time has finally come for Michigan to tip-off the season. The anticipation seems to be pretty tremendous here in Ann Arbor. But being that this is my first semester attending the U, I’m still not sure what to expect, or what I should expect, from the fans, the media, or the students. I do know that basketball plays second fiddle to football here, as was particularly evident during the high years on the gridiron and the down years on the court with Tommy Turtleneck…Brian Ellerbe…ugh I have a headache now. But on the hardwood things are changing, and a little faster than expected, at least from my perspective anyway. Student season ticket sales this season skyrocketed and now stand at about 2,500 (below 500 last season), as well they should, this team is not your garden variety middle of pack elite conference team anymore.
Why?
Competent coaching.
John Beilein is an outstanding coach and once he gets the players he wants into his unique system, NCAA tourney berths are a foregone conclusion. Jerry Dunn is a respected coach who has prior experience and success coaching in the Big Ten with Penn State. This program is in good hands.
Who will pick up the leadership slack of the departed David Merritt and CJ. Lee?
The obvious choice would be to look at Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims as the leaders. That’s fine. More should be expected from them, as well it should considering both are far and away the most talented players on the team. However, if you really think about the leadership qualities Merritt and Lee brought to the team last season, you realize that sometimes the guys that go out and put their soul into a program despite their lack of basketball prowess or star capability are the ones deemed to be the pulse of a team— the players the other guys on the team know are busting their tails for the absolute love of the game. They’re tough, focused, passionate, team oriented guys. Their teammates will run through a wall for them. Vocal or not, Manny and DeShawn will lead by example, but sometimes you need a fiery guy to direct you in stressful situations, or even better yet to tell you to dislodge your cranium from your anus. Believe me, it sounds much different coming from a player than a coach. My two leading candidates would be freshman point guard Darius Morris and the gritty sophomore Zack Novak. Time will tell.
Player capable of making this team elite instead of just dangerous?
Stu Douglass’ versatility means so much to this team. The glimpses of playmaking ability he showed last season made me a believer that he is equally valuable at both guard positions and it will allow Beilein more lineup flexibility. We all know Douglass is a knock down shooter and that will hopefully never change, but Douglass has the ability to make plays for others and to get the team into its offense. Stu Douglass can be the Mike Gansey of the Wolverines. Gansey was the do it all skinny two guard for West Virginia when Beilein was head coach there during the school’s Elite Eight run in 2005. With Morris and Perry probably playing the point most of the time I wouldn’t bet on seeing Douglass play the position a whole lot. But with this high-octane offense, the more play makers and ball handlers readily available the better. At this moment I think Douglass is the only other player on this squad other than Harris that can productively facilitate and score from the outside like a true combo guard can. While Morris can penetrate, his jumper is still suspect. Laval Lucas-Perry can knock down shots, but I don’t see him as that true penetrating point guard right now.
This season’s X-Factor?
I for one would like to see seniors Zack Gibson and DeShawn Sims in the game together more. It’s all up to Gibson for that to happen. I think Beilein would like to play Gibson more than the 12.1 min/gm he played last season. And surely he would like more production out of his athletic, experienced 6’10 senior than 3.9 ppg and 2.2 reb/gm. Zack’s confidence comes and goes more than an old man with an overactive bladder comes and goes from the john. And it’s obvious. Zack’s posture slumps, his head drops and his demeanor is anything but intimidating. The only consistency to Gibson’s game is his inconsistency. Gibson staying out on the floor for longer periods of time will drastically help this team–if for nothing else to alleviate the pressure placed on Sims on the defensive end. Though surprisingly enough Sims didn’t get into foul trouble all that often last season even though he was often the only “big” man in the lineup for long stretches of time. I’m not confident that luck will last, especially since this team will not be sneaking up on anybody. It’s entirely possible 7’0″ redshirt freshman Ben Cronin can give this team some quality minutes throughout the season, and maybe even redshirt sophomore Eric Puls can contribute. But hopefully Gibson can really make strides this season and anything else the other bigs provide will just be gravy.
Michigan might not get to 20 regular season wins but will they be markedly improved?
Ok, the tournament committee doesn’t factor in wins against non D1 schools, so the Northern Michigan game for all intents and purposes is an exhibition. Sure, it “counts” as a ‘W’ on Michigan’s overall record but it really doesn’t “count”. Plus, playing UNM doesn’t hurt Michigan’s RPI. So, with that out of the way let’s look at the real schedule.
The cupcake wins include Houston Baptist, Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Detroit, and Coppin State (please no repeats of last season’s Savannah State game). Neutral site games will be played in Florida (Old Spice Classic bracket) against Creighton, then either Marquette or Xavier, then hopefully a title game against Alabama, Baylor, Iona or Florida State. Michigan looks to be in pretty good shape to win the tournament, but I think Xavier (despite losing top 3 scorers from 08/09) will give them a tough game in the second round provided both schools advance that far. Winning two out of three games would not be anything to scoff at, but not making it to the title game would be disappointing. Non-conference home tilts with Boston College and UConn plus away games against Utah and Kansas could leave Michigan 1-3, or God forbid 0-4. At worst Michigan should achieve a 7-4 non-conference record. It would be nice to win the Utah game and get a road win under their belt before heading into the abrasive 18 game marathon that is the Big Ten season. 10 to 12 conference wins seems about right, as the Big Ten is 7 to 8 deep and there’s not many games to take lightly. Though anything under 11 wins in conference will probably leave Michigan some work do to come the conference tourney.
I’ll predict Michigan wins 7 of 11 out of conference and 12 of 18 in conference for a regular season record of 19-10 (Northern Michigan not included). By the end of the regular season I expect Michigan to be much better, and more dangerous, than last season’s team just based on the fact that Darius Morris and Laval Lucas-Perry will be running the point instead of David Merritt and C.J. Lee. Add in improvements sophomores Stu Douglass and Zack Novak made to their games and already the team looks to have more talented depth and versatility than last season. Freshman Matt Vogrich and redshirt junior Anthony Wright also provide sharp shooting depth on the wings, and should find some minutes backing up the likes of Harris and Novak. I don’t know how many minutes Anthony Wright should expect but I’m certain he’ll get every chance possible to contribute after that 14 point performance against Oklahoma in the second round in the NCAA’s.
Possible Beilein talking points to motivate this team to build on last season’s success and avoid complacency?
Last year’s relative success doesn’t mean jack squat now. It’s a new season and the start of a new journey. You have prove your worth as basketball players and as a team all over again. If anything, your opponents are going to be gunning for you even more since now you put yourself on the map. Keep the petal to the metal.
I’d sprinkle in a Jim Valvano quote for good measure too:
“No matter what business you’re in, you can’t run in place or someone will pass you by. It doesn’t matter how many games you’ve won.”
Whatever Coach Beilein has drummed up to get this team’s attention I have no doubts that it will work.
It’s going to be a fun winter in Ann Arbor.
Go Blue!
[photos via UMHOOPS]
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