After the first month or so of the 2010 season, the Tigers sit second in the AL Central with a 16-13 record. They are 3 games behind the first-place Minnesota Twins, and are at least four games clear of the other three teams in the division. This week’s series in Minnesota was the first time the Tigers had been swept this year, and marked their first series loss since their trip to Seattle.
Instead of writing a lame recap of Wednesday’s loss that you won’t read anyway, I figured I’d take advantage of tonight’s rain delay and look at how the Tigers have started the season overall. This post will take a look at the Tigers’ pitching staff, with another one hopefully in the works for the position players.
Check out the pitching breakdown after the jump…
STARTING PITCHING
The hot topic of the Tigers season thus far has been how much the Tigers starting pitchers have struggled. Let’s look closer at each individual guy.
As expected, Justin Verlander had a rough April. Before his last start, JV was sporting a 5.53 ERA and opposing hitters were batting .264 against him. His last start brought those numbers down to 4.50 and .231, respectively. If there’s anything we’ve learned in the last few years, it’s that Verlander heats up big-time when the calendar hits May. Expect his numbers to be among the league leaders by summer time.
Newly-acquired Max Scherzer started off nicely, giving up 3 earned runs or fewer in his first four starts, including 3 quality starts. His last two starts, against the Twins no less, have been a cause for concern. He’s given up 16 earned runs on 18 hits, including 3 home runs. Whether this is merely a Twin thing or not remains to be seen. His numbers against everyone else have been pretty solid: a 2.63 ERA, .253 opponent batting average, and 17:7 K/BB ratio show that he’s not having as rough adjustment to the American Leagues as expected.
If there’s one name to be worried about in the Tigers’ rotation, it’s Rick Porcello. Slick Rick has struggled out of the gate to a 2-3 record, and most fans would be surprised that he has 2 wins. His ERA is an ugly 7.50, largely a result of his very hittable stuff. He’s given up at least 5 hits in all 6 of his starts, including two starts with a career high 10 hits allowed. In his defense, his BABIP (batting average per balls-in-play) is .396 this season. Last year, that number was a more respectable .280, which indicates that Porcello is either getting unlucky, or his pitches are getting hit harder than last year. I think it’s a combination of both. Expect some improvement, but understand that this year may be a sophomore slump for Porcello.
If anyone told you that they thought Dontrelle Willis would lead the rotation in ERA, hits allowed and quality starts (last two tied with Scherzer), you would have thought they were fit for a straitjacket. However, Willis has proved all his doubters wrong so far with a 1-1 record in 5 starts (he missed one due to illness). Three of his starts have been of the “quality” variety (6+ innings pitched, 3 runs or fewer). He hasn’t been perfect though; his 21:15 K/BB ratio and 1.50 WHIP are warning signs for the future. Willis seems to be able to work through the jams he gets himself into, but they may get him into more trouble when bats heat up in the summer months.
The final pitcher in the rotation is also the guy that benefits the most from tonight’s rain delay. Jeremy Bonderman gave up 6 earned runs in less than 3 innings tonight, but as of right now it looks like the game will be postponed. In his first five starts, Bondo has put up a 1-1 record with a 5.74 ERA, though these stats are highly inflated by his 4 inning, 8 earned run performance against Seattle in his 2nd start. In his other 4 starts, his ERA is a much more respectable 3.65. I think we can expect his ERA to dive as he gets more starts, unless they’re of the Seattle variety. His ground ball rate is at 36.6%, quite a bit lower than his career average of 46.5%. Due to Bondo’s shoulder surgery and subsequent change in pitching style, we’re not really sure what this tells us. He could be getting hit harder than before or he could also be getting somewhat unlucky. I still think it’s a bit too early to tell in this case, especially since Bondo has pitched the fewest number of innings in the rotation.
RELIEF PITCHING
Right now, the Tigers bullpen leads the entire MLB in wins (9) and ERA (2.03). They are 4th in innings pitched (97.2, first in the AL), and have given up the second fewest home runs of any MLB bullpen (4). I think it’s safe to say these numbers are pretty unsustainable, so we’ll just assume this is the case for all the individual relievers. Still, let’s dive right in, just like Jonesy used to do.
Phil Coke has appeared in 15 of the Tigers’ 29 games this year, averaging an inning per appearance. He’s sporting a 3-0 record (best on the team) and a 1.80 ERA. His WHIP of 1.53 is a bit worrying, but not unreasonable for a reliever.
Eddie Bonine has pitched 14.2 innings in 11 games, earning a 2-0 record and a 1.23 ERA. His ERA has steadily declined since he gave up 2 runs in 3 innings in his second appearance of the year due to the fact that he hasn’t given up an earned run in his last 11 innings.
If anyone qualifies as the “biggest surprise” of the Tigers’ bullpen, it’s Joel Zumaya for the sole fact that he hasn’t been on the disabled list yet. Zoom finally gave up his first earned run of the year on April 26th against Texas. He also gave up another run that night, but those still are the only two earned runs he has allowed this year. He’s sitting on a 2-0 record in 16.1 innings (11 appearances) with a 1.10 ERA and 18 strikeouts.
Fu-Te Ni hasn’t been used as often as some of the other Tigers relievers (just 12.1 innings in 9 appearances), but his numbers are still spectacular. He has a 1.46 ERA and 16 strikeouts. If anyone is going to regress, it’s Ni. I don’t think anyone expects him to strike out batters at that kind of clip.
Brad Thomas is the oddball of the bullpen in that he’s (a) sucked, and (b) probably the only one that will improve on his start. Of his 7 appearances this season, only three have ended without him giving up any runs (and one lasted only one out). He’s given up 4 runs on two separate occassions, yet still somehow does not have a loss. He’s pitched 6 straight scoreless innings though, so maybe he’s been hanging out with Verlander too much.
Despite being just 22 years old, Ryan Perry has filled the set-up role pretty effectively thus far. He has given up 4 runs in 12 innings, but three of those have come in his two losses (he’s 1-2). Other than a couple of rough outings, Perry has been THE guy Jim Leyland trusts (along with Zumaya) to come in and shut a team down late in the game. Perry is likely the closer-in-waiting, so it’s nice to see that he’s flourishing in pressure situations.
Other than a bad outing in his first save opportunity, Jose Valverde has been worth every penny of the 2-year, $14 million contract he signed in the offseason. In fact, Valverde hasn’t given up a run in any of his other 13 appearances, earning him a 0.71 ERA. Expect a couple more blown saves and bad outings from Valverde this year, but solidifying the back end of the bullpen is looking like one of the best moves Dave Dombrowski made this winter.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Tonight’s first game in the Tigers 3-game series against the Indians was postponed. If you’re going to be around the Cleveland area, make sure to check out this video for other stuff to do before and after the games, especially if the weather gets bad.
[All stats via the amazing Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs websites]
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