On October 23rd, 2007, the Cleveland Indians clinched the Central Division title in a year that would ultimately see them take the eventual World Champion Boston Red Sox to game seven of the ALCS. After winning the first five Central Division titles ever (1995 through 1999), it took the Indians nine years to return to the top of the division after that 2007 appearance when the Indians clinched the division on….
In baseball time, a decade may as well be an eternity and, not only are none of the players from the 2007 team still in Cleveland, most have retired and many who haven’t, like C.C. Sabathia with New York, Franklin Gutierrez with Seattle and Fausto Carmona (Roberto Hernandez), who was cut from Atlanta in August, are likely nearing that point. Only the youngest of the group, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta in particular, remain productive players and have all seen durability issues as they’ve reached their later years.
Just like that 2007 team was the culmination (and very short lived success) of a rebuilding effort that started in the early 2000’s when Mark Shapiro brought in Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee from Montreal for Bartolo Colon, Travis Hafner from Texas for Einar Diaz and Victor Martinez and Peralta through international free agency, this current group has been brewing since around 2010. It was at the trade deadline in 2010 that the Indians acquired what is arguably the most important part of the current roster by sending Jake Westbrook to St. Louis in a three team deal that brought back Corey Kluber from San Diego.
This trade was the perfect example of the cyclical nature of baseball as Westbrook, who was instrumental in the 2007 season, was acquired originally from New York in exchange for David Justice, who was huge for the Tribe during their previous run of Central titles, particularly 1997 through 1999. In addition to Westbrook for Kluber, quite a few other important Indians were gained from the dismantling of the 2007 team. Number two starter, Carlos Carrasco, came from Philadelphia in exchange for Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco (Francisco was actually a bigger contributor in 2007 than Lee) and in one of the biggest steals in franchise history, Carlos Santana came to Cleveland from Los Angeles in exchange for aging utility man, Casey Blake. Finally, after the 2012 season, Choo was traded to Cincinnati as part of a three team deal that brought back Trevor Bauer. In fact, the only trades that didn’t really work out were those of Peralta and Martinez, although at least the Indians received a few serviceable seasons of Justin Masterson for the latter.
Like that 2007 team, the 2016 Central champs were largely formed through trades with little added through free agency, although the draft has played a much bigger part of roster construction of late. CC Sabathia (1998) was the Indians only first round draft pick on the entire 2007 roster, but the 2016 version contains three, Lonnie Chisenhall (2008), Francisco Lindor (2011) and Tyler Naquin (2012). There is not just first round success either. Jason Kipnis was a second round pick in 2009, while Mike Clevinger (4th round), Cody Anderson (14th), Shawn Armstrong (18th) and Cody Allen (23rd) were all taken in the later rounds of 2011. Of the Indians current starting nine, all but Santana, Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis were either signed as an amateur international free agent or drafted. In 2007, only Martinez, Peralta and Ryan Garko were.
The rotation is a little different as Bauer, Carrasco and Kluber were acquired through trade while Josh Tomlin (drafted 19th round in 2006), Danny Salazar and Clevinger were internal developments. The 2007 team was lead by internal players Sabathia and Carmona with trade acquisitions Westbrook and Lee followed by the free agent Paul Byrd.
Beyond roster construction, these two teams have quite a few similarities. While Hafner, Martinez and Sizemore were among the best hitters in baseball, the majority of the line-up was filled with players who were just above average, got on base a lot and hit consistently. There are great parallels especially with players like Blake and Chisenhall, who were both moved from third base to right field and had a bit of a career resurgence (although Blake was moved back to third for 2007). Both teams also depended on great pitching at the top of the rotation (and both could feature a Cy Young winner as ace depending on how the voting works out) with well above average pitching to follow. In addition, the middle relief on each team ranks among the best in team history, particularly Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt in 2007 and Dan Otero, Andrew Miller and Bryan Shaw currently.
Down the line, there are two huge differences between the two teams, however, and these could be the difference between the ALCS and World Series. While Blake was a fine right fielder, the rest of the 2007 Indians defense was dreadful. According Total Zone, that team allowed 16 more runs than the average MLB team (-18.3 according to UZR) because of their defense and that isn’t surprising as the small ranged Peralta was starting at short and the even shorter ranged Trot Nixon often played right. It shouldn’t have been a surprise that when the Indians upgraded their outfield to include Gutierrez and Francisco the team went on a hot streak.
This team is completely different in the field. Instead of being one of the worst teams in baseball defensively, Lindor, Kipnis, Chisenhall, Jose Ramirez and Davis have helped the team be worth a whopping 40.7 more runs than the average defense (34.7 according to UZR), fourth best in baseball and best among AL play-off contenders. Westbrook wishes he pitched in front of this infield defense.
The second difference could be considered just one man, but more fairly it should be considered two. Joe Borowski was very literally the worst closer the Indians ever had. The 2007 team was so good that they regularly handed him three run leads and he saved a league best 45 of his 53 save opportunities, but he did so with a 5.07 ERA. We can compare to Cody Allen’s numbers and see that, while he doesn’t have the total number of saves (just 29), he has been consistently better this season and over his entire career. The main difference between the two closers, however, is actually the manager.
Eric Wedge was an old school manager and used Borowski to save games because he was a “closer.” As has been discussed often of late, the most pivotal situation in a game is not always the ninth and a team should use it’s best relief pitcher in this situation, so Wedge actually helped the team by using Lewis, Perez and Betancourt earlier in games at times, when the game was actually on the line. That is still no reason to use such an inefficient pitcher in the ninth, an inning that is generally also extremely important. Terry Francona has not been anywhere near as closed minded. He has used his trio of Allen, Miller and Shaw whenever necessary in the best way he sees fit with Otero available before them. This set of four pitchers is simply more talented than any group the 2007 team could sniff up and, combined with the improved defense, could be the Indians biggest advantage over their last time in the first series of the post-season.
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