But hey, I’m just a geek with a laptop. Kerry Byrne knows what he knows. So does Brian Burke. Burke runs a website called advancednflstats.com. In an interview with the New York Times last year, Burke said this:
“There should be more aggressive play in terms of high risk/reward plays like deep passes, and in terms of 4th down strategy. Before the modern passing attack, going for it on 4th down and 5 seemed like suicide. These days it makes sense in most cases, but the conventional wisdom is very slow to catch up.”
Who goes for it now, on 4th and 5?
Burke says teams that go for it on 4th and 2 make it 60 percent of the time. His numbers show that, between 2000 and 2008, teams that went for it on 4th and 3 from the opponent’s 37 were successful 56 percent of the time. A field goal from there — 53 yards, or 54 — was good 45 percent of the time. The average punt, Burke’s numbers show, traveled 23 yards.
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