If history holds true, we are probably looking at 10 wins needed to get to the playoffs in the AFC and end the longest damn drought ever. It seems unlikely that the AFC South or AFC North will produce a wildcard winner (but man, would I love to have that tiebreaker with Baltimore), so Buffalo, and the 2 losers of the AFC West (2 of Denver, Oakland, and KC) seem most likely to fight for the 2 spots. That game against OAK in December may be a really, really, big game. At 4-2, this means Buffalo must go 6-4 over its last 10 games. If we look at the schedule, it’s possible, but not a slam dunk either.
Likely Loses
Oct 30 vs Patriots, Nov 7 at SEA, and Dec 11 vs Pitt
A win in any of these three games would be HUGE. However, Buffalo will be an underdog in all of these games, assuming Big Ben is back and healthy by then, which for a meniscus, he 100% should be. NE on Oct 30 could be a blood bath. I expect NE to try and score 50 if they are able. After being shutout in Foxboro, I think they want to humiliate the Bills. Seattle is a really good defensive team, with an OK offense. However, playing in Seattle on a Monday night is likely too much to overcome. Of the three listed above, Pittsburgh in Buffalo is the most winnable. If Pitt is 100% though, I’m not sure we can slow down their offense.
Likely Wins
Oct 23 at MIA, Nov 27 vs JAX, Dec 18 vs CLE, Dec 24 vs MIA
I think Buffalo is significantly better than each of these teams. Playing in MIA won’t be easy, but of the 4 wins I’m counting on, it’s the only road game. BUF played as bad as possible last year, and almost beat JAX, and the Browns may go 0-16.
This puts Buffalo at 8-5. This means we have three coin flip games left and BUF must win 2 of three.
Coin Flip
Nov 20 at CIN, Dec 4 at OAK, and Jan 1 at NYJ
All three road games. A win against OAK would be huge as this could be a team you are fighting for the last spot with. Having the tie-breaker here would count for a lot. I’m also not ready to rule the Bengals out of it, as they have a lot of talent of their team. We may be wounded going into that game as we likely will be coming off back to back losses to NE and SEA. It is after the bye week however, and this should favor BUF. The Jan 1 game is of great interest because it very well could be the exact opposite of last year, where one team has nothing but pride to play for. I’m sure the Jets would love nothing more than to keep BUF from going to the playoffs if it comes to that.
So 10-6 is doable, but I don’t see a ton of room for error for the Bills. With three games I almost certainly see them losing, that means they 7-1 in the other 8 games. A win this weekend in Miami would sure be nice to go into the NE, SEA, CIN gauntlet with.
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